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[Concern] Nylon Is Rising Hard?

2011/8/18 13:52:00 52

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In July, the price of nylon raw materials rose fiercely, but the price of nylon yarn was always in an awkward position: the rise of silk price was far behind that of raw materials, which led to the loss of many factories. Until August, the price of raw materials dropped slightly and the price of silk was raised.

At present,

nylon

FDY-70D/24F is near 33000 yuan, 40D/12F is around 35000 yuan, nylon DTY-70D/24F is near 34000 yuan, 30D/10F is around 39000 yuan, and nylon POY-86D/24F is 31000 yuan.

It rose by 200-300 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis:

1, cost side.8 month beginning

raw material

Prices began to fall.

By the end of August 16th, the price of caprolactam in the domestic market was around 28000 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.

The slicing price is more stable. The mainstream domestic conventional spinning chips are quoted at about 28900 yuan, and high speed spinning is about 29500-30000 yuan.

Although the price of raw materials is slowing down, it is worth noting that the supply of caprolactam in China is still tight. In 9-10 months, there is a more intensive device overhaul. There is not much stock in the business, and the intention of shipment is not very obvious.

On the other hand, influenced by the anti-dumping case of caprolactam, imports will also decrease.

Therefore, the price of caprolactam in the short term will be relatively stable, but it does not exclude the possibility of a slight fall. In the long run, if there are no other negative factors, the price of caprolactam will increase.

2, supply side.7 month,

Nylon yarn

Manufacturers can say that they experienced "four faces": cost pressures, lack of demand, financing difficulties, frequent power rationing.

Many factories have reduced the operating rate, and some factories have even stopped working and overhauling. On the whole, the rate of operation is basically maintained at around 75%.

In terms of inventory, recent sales of nylon civilian silk have improved slightly, and stocks began to slow down.

In terms of capacity, Wujiang Asia Pacific textile company added 144 new nylon filament production lines in July, and is expected to be put into operation in August.

3. Demand side. China's textile industry is slowing down as a result of inflation.

According to the Statistics Center of the China Textile Industry Association, from January to May, China's textile and clothing exports slowed down by 0.85 percentage points from the January to April export growth rate of 27.05%, and the increase in export prices was an important factor supporting the rapid growth of exports.

As far as the nylon filament market is concerned, the price of raw materials is strong enough to keep its price high, and the gap between them is more and more obvious, especially in the market competition.

In addition, the tight macroeconomic policy is the financing difficulties of enterprises. According to the statistics of Zhejiang Provincial Commission of credit, 56% of SMEs believe that the difficulty of loans exceeds that of last year.

According to the results of the Zhejiang Provincial Federation of industry and commerce, banks usually carry out 30%-50% lending policies for small businesses with a benchmark interest rate of two times that of the bank's benchmark interest rate.

Outlook: comprehensive view, raw material price supply is tight, price easy to rise or fall, although the cost pressure in the short term can be buffered, but in the long term the expected rise is relatively large, it is expected that the market will continue to maintain raw materials to push up the market.

In terms of supply and demand, manufacturers started to maintain low positions, and demand remained quiet.

In general, the advantage factor of the nylon industry is greater than the good factor, and the market for later nylon silk is not optimistic.