US Debt Crisis Triggers Global Textile Trade Alert

　　 International Textiles The resurgence of the clothing consumer market has not yet been stable. In recent days, textile companies in various countries have added new worries. The decline in the credit rating caused by the US debt crisis has not only hurt the US stock market, but also the volatility of global commodity prices. As for textile and garment industry, the problem of shrinking consumer demand and weakening US dollar exchange rate has become the focus of attention in the industry.

After the credit downgrade

In August 5th, the international credit rating agency Standard & Poor's announced that it would downgrade the US sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA+ for the first time in the history of the United States. The move triggered a wave of waves. market Violent fluctuations. Economists point out that even rigid consumer goods such as textiles and clothing will not be able to be independent in the future. In order to reduce the deficit, the US government will increase taxes, and consumers' disposable income will be reduced. Consumer goods, including clothing, will be affected.

Recall that in 2008, the global financial crisis made the global textile and clothing consumption market bottomed out. The increase in unemployment and tight income make consumers reluctant to spend too much money on clothing products. Many textile manufacturers have suffered huge losses due to poor product sales. And the adverse effects of the debt crisis have already appeared on the unemployment rate. The labor department said in August 3rd that the unemployment rate in the United States increased to 9.2% in June. Analysts believe that even if the US government does not act on taxes, the rising unemployment rate will lead to consumer spending cuts, and the domestic consumer market will shrink. On the other hand, in order to solve the unemployment problem, the United States is likely to reduce imports and expand exports as the main mode of economic growth in the second half of this year.

A more profound impact is that if the United States implements its export strategy, the suppression of imports will inevitably lead to a further rise in US trade protectionism and an increase in international trade frictions. "Increasing imports means reducing employment opportunities in our country. In the case of economic slowdown, this is something the US government would not like to see. So in order to curb imports from all countries, International trade friction It will become more frequent. An economist predicted this.

Trading partners are nervous.

Faced with the possible negative impact of the US debt crisis, the major textile and apparel exporting countries with close ties have expressed concern. Related practitioners pointed out that in the coming period, the US market is likely to reduce imports because of the downturn in consumption, and the expectation of the depreciation of the dollar will further occupy the profit margins of export textile and clothing.

Diola, President of the India Federation of export organizations (FIEO), said: "the decline in the US credit rating from AAA to AA+ will have a multifaceted impact on India's economy, which is definitely not good news for India exporters." Diola pointed out that the downturn in the US economy and the debt crisis in the eurozone will lead to a decrease in demand in the US and Europe, which will affect India's export orders, especially clothing, handicrafts and leather products. "In the three quarter and fourth quarter of this year, the negative impact of the US debt crisis on these export products may appear." Diola worried.

In addition to the drop in demand, Diola also worries about the exchange rate change of India rupee against the US dollar. "The India rupee appreciation expectation will weaken the competitive advantage of India manufacturers. Moreover, the low price of imported goods is likely to put pressure on the domestic manufacturing sector in India. " Diola said.

Countries that are highly sensitive to the volatility of the US market are more than India. Thailand Taihua Farmers Research Center has made a judgement that once the US and the euro zone economy fall into second recession, it will directly affect Thailand's highly dependent industries in the US and the euro area market. Among them, the most affected industries (more than 40% of the US and the euro area) are textiles, tableware, footwear and other products. As these products play an important role in Thailand's export, the decline in the volume of orders will drag down the export growth rate of Thailand in 2012, or even lower than the 12.0%~17.0% growth expected by the research center. If the situation is bad, it may lead to an increase in Thailand's exports, such as the fall during the last global economic crisis and negative.

Pakistan analysts expect the United States debt crisis It will not have much impact on the export of Pakistan, but the rising cost will make it difficult for the manufacturers to gain competitive advantage in the depressed US market. Affected by cotton price fluctuations and energy crisis, Pakistan textile industry has increased its operating burden this year. Compared with the previous year, the manufacturing cost of Pakistan's textile industry has increased by more than US $1 billion. The industry is generally worried that garment exports in Pakistan will continue to decline this year.

There is no obvious fluctuation in consumer market.

Although manufacturers of textile and garment exporting countries are worried about the situation, the US consumer market is still stable in the current situation. The latest statistics show that US retail sales increased by 0.5% in July. Compared with June, it also increased by 0.2 percentage points. Rudy Narvas of New York Industrial Bank said, "US retail sales account for 2/3 of US economic activity. The economic statistics are numerous and complicated. But we can see that the retail industry has been doing well since March of this year. Even in the past July, the consumption gear that pushed us economic growth has not stopped.

On the other hand, some export enterprises in China also say that orders from the US market have not yet been strongly affected. The company's current orders were basically determined at the beginning of the year, and the order volume was also ranked in October, but the trend towards the US market was not optimistic. "It may be like the financial crisis of 2008, which did not feel too great at the beginning, but then the order has been sliding down until the second half of 2009. So, next year's orders need early planning. " Guangdong textile export enterprise responsible person said.

Economic turbulence in the consumer market often requires a longer cycle, and economists estimate that the negative impact of the debt crisis in the US is likely to emerge next year.

Paul Dales, an economist at the capital economics consultancy, predicts that the fall in the stock market will lead to a reduction of US $140 billion in US consumer spending next year, equivalent to a decrease of 1.3%, and a half percentage point reduction in the annual growth rate of the economy. Some analysts pointed out that the turmoil in the stock market brought the greatest impact on the wealthy. "80% of the stock is held by 10% of the richest people in the society, while the 20% of the richest people in the society account for 40% of the national consumption expenditure," said Mike Neemia, chief economist of the International Shopping Center Association.

It is worth noting that in the future, the luxury retail industry in the United States will face unprecedented challenges. All along, the most solid foundation for the growth of the luxury industry is the richest group in the society. Now, luxury goods retailers Tiffany and Fifth Avenue Sax department store are finding business more and more deserted. Kelly Chalk, a tourist on holiday in Las Vegas, said: "we did tighten our budget this time. This is not the same as it used to be. We never used to worry about how much we used to spend when we played.