Cotton Prices Have Fallen And Clothing Has Gone Up.

Last month, on the way from Hangzhou to Xiaoshan to Shaoxing, Ju Li Yan, deputy general manager of China Textile Limited by Share Ltd, kept calling the company from time to time: "now the price of India * * yarn has dropped to more than 15000 yuan / ton. I think we can wait and see if it will fall again."

Compared with the highest point of last year, this is considered a "cabbage price", but Ju Li Yan is careful not to buy in large quantities to prevent the market from continuing to dive.

Zhang Zhiyong, a sales manager of Hebei Ning spinning Refco Group Ltd, was worried about the order: "no matter what it is now."

Compared with the upstream business, the terminal market will be much more prosperous.

Many garments in the first half of the year

Upstream: grandpa last year, grandson this year.

Last year, Chen Ling, President of Huafu color spinning Limited by Share Ltd, told her marketing staff: "you need to change your role as a mother-in-law as soon as possible."

Later, she taught them: "the market has made you upgrade to be a grandfather."

It is true that last year, for the vast majority of yarn enterprises, it was a glorious year which was nostalgia.

However, Cheng also Xiao He, defeated Xiao He, geomantic turn abrupt, this year with Zhang Zhiyong's words: "many enterprises earned money last year, all lost in this year more than."

"At present, because of the fluctuation of cotton prices, the fluctuation of terminal orders is very large. Many manufacturers are obviously going to make a further delay, hoping that the price of cotton will drop further."

"It turned out to be two times a year," Chen Ling said. "It's now turned into 4, 6, even 8 and 12 times, making the order very thin and broken."

The smart salesmen quickly adapted to the new role change: "do grandchildren" this year.

For this situation, Sun Ruizhe, vice president of the China Textile Industry Association, believes that on the one hand, the downstream enterprises are expecting the uncertainty of the market, which is a typical "buying up or not buying" mentality. On the other hand, it is also affected by the financial strain of enterprises.

According to his judgment, this trend may continue for some time, but his recent survey of the textile market in Shaoxing showed that the situation was slightly improved. The panic situation in the early stage is now somewhat stable, and the enterprises have slightly established confidence in the next round of market demand.

The prices of upstream products are gradually looking down and will be relatively stable in the coming months.

Even in the face of such a recession.

Downstream: cotton prices have fallen, clothing has gone up.

Contrary to cotton prices and cotton yarn prices, many clothing brands have raised their prices this year, rising by one to 20%, and some have risen by 50%.

For this reason, many brands explained that they used high priced cotton purchased before the Spring Festival.

However, some industry experts pointed out that the proportion of raw materials in the brand cost is not large, and the pmission speed of raw material cost is not so fast. According to Sun Ruizhe's estimate, the production cycle of garments is 6 months, the fabric is 12 months, and the yarn is 18 months.

According to this pmission speed, the effect of raw material price increase should be realized by the end of this year to the beginning of next year, and the price of clothing brand will not be excluded. If so, the price of clothing at present is a high factor.

Consumers complained about complaining. Many listed companies surrendered a good financial report in the first half of the year: the business profits of the good news birds, nine herding kings, Muse bonwell, Dr. frog and other brands increased by more than 40%, and the pre tax profits of seven wolves, Semir, Li Lang and BELLE could reach more than 30% under the high base.

What's worse is that some sports brands, such as Lining and China's trend, have declined year by year, mainly due to the influence of leisure and fashion brands on sports brand substitution.

At the moment, autumn clothing is still on the market, and it is still "rising". Despite this, the major brands will still be filled with orders in autumn and winter. Therefore, many people are optimistic about the performance of clothing in the second half of the year, and think that they will maintain a good growth momentum in the first half of the year.

Of course, some analysts have pointed out that some brands really taste the sweetness. For most small and medium enterprises, enterprises have little chance of increasing the cost of labor, pportation and store rents.

Moreover, for the middle and low market, no matter whether the peasants stay in the countryside or migrant workers who go out to work, the income has not increased this year, so the market confidence will be affected in the second half of the year.

The achievements of Chinese brands in the eyes of Li Kailuo, an expert in fashion industry economics, are closely related to the extensive development pattern.

Like Li Lang, there were 2492 stores in the country in 2008, 2561 stores in 2009, 2885 in 2010, more than 4000 in Semir in 2008, more than 5000 in 2009, more than 6000 in 2010, 3 from 2800 to 3600 stores in the United States, and BELLE (non BELLE independent brand), which expanded from more than 9000 stores to 11967 stores.

However, the store revenue of these brands did not change much over the past 3 years. The average store income in 2008 was 450 thousand yuan, 600 thousand yuan in 2009, and 710 thousand yuan in 2010, with an average monthly income of around 60 thousand yuan per month.

This is far from ZARA's annual revenue of one billion yuan.

Terminal: behind the scenes of high price

When it comes to the future of China's textile and clothing, people always look to the huge domestic demand market. However, it is embarrassing that China is spending a lot of money every year.

When people analyze this view, they usually point to the imperfect commercial system.

Sun Ruizhe describes the commercial system in China at present: "our brand is now going into the department stores of the second tier cities in the country, not only being picked out, but also imposed very harsh conditions, such as the deduction point is now generally up to 28% to 30%. After entering, there will still be bottom sales. If we fail to meet this standard, we will be eliminated."

So we finally saw a strange phenomenon: as a place of origin, goods bought in department stores in China may be priced higher than similar products in foreign department stores.

In Sun Ruizhe's view, this will also push up the price of clothing.

This not only does not benefit consumers, but also inhibits their consumption desire from another angle, and adds unnecessary business costs to enterprises.

Some foreign counterparts obviously followed the business rules. Some department stores not only rent their own stores, but also run many private brands.

Sun Ruizhe said that in general, the higher the proportion of private brand in the whole storefront, the better the benefit in the past few years, and the lower the proportion of private brand, the weaker the ability to resist risks.

From this point of view, China's department store industry still has a big improvement.

Fortunately, some new business models are emerging before they are improved.

Sun Ruizhe explained: "the wholesale market of the central city has been greatly shifted to retail, and the commercial facilities in Dahongmen, Guanyuan, zoos and so on in Beijing have been greatly improved.

Their wholesale function is weakening, from the past "B to B" to the "B to C" mode, that is, facing the vast number of urban consumers.

This is a new business mode. Will this business mode evolve into a specialized shopping center similar to that of other countries? We can wait and see.

Another new business mode is online shopping. Clothing ranks first in online shopping sales rankings.

Sun Ruizhe believes that these new business models will impact some unhealthy factors in the original mode.

Once the business system has been improved, it will stimulate the entire consumption demand. At that time, it will benefit not only the terminal, but also the upstream.

In short, 2011 is a special year, with inflation on the one hand and monetary tightening on the other.

For the future road, Sun Ruizhe suggested Enterprises: "have the strength to go up, walk patiently, have the courage to go across the border, do not see clearly follow closely."

Yang Shibin, Deputy Secretary General of the China Textile Industry Association, put forward: "we must be efficient, not high speed, steady and fast."

So what kind of model do you fit?