The Bottom Of The Valuation Is Close To &Nbsp; The Market Is Waiting For The Bottom Of Policy.

Editor's note: yesterday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities fell again, triggering investors' concerns, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.61%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 1.59%, and the two cities increased nearly 5%, indicating that the market panic is magnifying.

There is still much room for the market to fall. In fact, we can make a preliminary judgement by comparing the valuation level.

Statistics show that the Shanghai stock market A weighted dynamic price earnings ratio is 15.95 times, and the motherboard A shares are 15.95 times, compared with the Shanghai stock index in November 4, 2008 1664.93 points, has been very close, when Shanghai stock market A shares were 13.27 times, the motherboard A shares were 13.40 times, the two banks were only 9.89% from Shanghai A shares, and the main board A shares were also less than 20%.

Yesterday, the focus of the A share market continued to move down, and the market confidence continued to be suppressed for three consecutive days.

In such a low and disappointing market, another voice has been issued. With the gradual arrival of the valuation market, the market calls for the bottom of the policy, and at the same time, the bottom of the market will come soon as the policy is approaching.

This is not without reason.

According to the market research center of WIND and Securities Daily, the average dynamic price earnings ratio of the entire A share market was 16.09 times yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2559.47 points, or 1.61%, and its average dynamic P / E was 13.38 times; the Shenzhen stock index closed at 11414.16 points, or 1.59%, and its average dynamic P / E was 31.08 times.

Such a low price earnings ratio corresponds to the previous 1664 point earnings ratio of 13.56 times.

Therefore, analysts generally believe that from the valuation level, the market has undoubtedly entered the valuation.

Compared with previous lows, we can see that with the rise and fall of the market, the dynamic P / E ratio is also fluctuating, and at the bottom of each market, the bottom of the price earnings ratio is bound to appear.

Statistics show that in recent years the first bottom appeared in June 6, 2005, the Shanghai composite index was 998.22 points.

At that time, the average dynamic price earnings ratio of the entire A share market was 19.36 times, the average dynamic price earnings ratio of the Shanghai composite index was 16.97 times, and the average dynamic price earnings ratio of Shenzhen composite index was 30.53 times.

Since then, the market has been advancing vigorously and continuously rising. In October 16, 2007, when the Shanghai Composite Index reached its 6124.04 highest point in history, the average dynamic price earnings ratio of the A share market reached a historical high of 52.92 times, and the average dynamic price earnings ratio of the Shanghai composite index was 51.94 times. The average dynamic price earnings ratio of Shenzhen composite index was 58.49 times.

In recent years, the second bottom appeared 1664.93 points of 10 and 28 days in 2008.

At that time, the average dynamic price earnings ratio of the entire A share market was 13.68 times, the average dynamic price earnings ratio of the Shanghai composite index was 13.56 times, and the average dynamic price earnings ratio of Shenzhen composite index was 14.46 times.

As the saying goes, extremes must be reversed.

After the crazy rise in 2007, the A share market in 2008 plunged sharply and ushered in a continuous decline. Until October 28, 2008, when the Shanghai Composite Index fell to its lowest level in 2 years to 1664.93, the average price earnings ratio was also close to a historical low. The Shenzhen stock index also experienced a new low to 5577.2 points.

Since then, with the arrival of the valuation base, the A share market in 2009 has also welcomed the favorable policies. The bottom of the market has gradually formed here, and the Shanghai Composite Index has rebounded all the way, until the 3478.01 point of August 2009, the rebound rate is as high as 1 times.

The low point in the past 2 years is in July 2, 2010.

At that time, the average dynamic price earnings ratio of the entire A share market was 17.3 times, the average dynamic price earnings ratio of the Shanghai composite index was 15.4 times, and the average dynamic price earnings ratio of Shenzhen composite index was 28.05 times.

After 1 years of concussion, the Shanghai Composite Index fell to a new low of 2319.74 points in the past 2 years in July 2, 2010. After the Shenzhen stock index fell to 8945.20, the Shanghai composite index began to stabilize gradually.

Although we can see from the statistics that the valuation of the market is close to the bottom, the current macro policy is still worrying.

Shenzhen's "inflation expectations" are still high, and the market is worried about the corresponding tightening policies such as raising interest rates.

Yesterday, the central bank announcement shows that the open market will invite two central banks at the same time, of which the 3 year period is the first reopening after 4 weeks' suspension.

Hongyuan Securities said that the immediate significance of the restart is to enlarge the open market duration (i.e. the duration of the bond) to lock in liquidity in depth, but the subsequent volume still depends on the reasonable positioning of the market interest rate.

From this point of view, raising interest rates will be inevitable.

At the same time, the news of the expansion of the new three board policy triggered a panic in the market for further expansion.

However, in this worry, we can see the first line.

First, policy factors are changing.

In August 15th, the CBRC issued the draft "capital management measures for commercial banks" for public consultation. The policy uncertainty over the banking stocks was eliminated. The future performance is worth looking forward to. Most of the research institutions believe that the impact of the draft on banks is positive.

Two, the new factors of repeated capital increase.

According to incomplete statistics, since May, A share listed companies have been increasingly concentrated by important shareholders.

Such signs suggest that investors are actively distributing and grabbing their own chips on the eve of the accelerated rebound in the overall market. This has also led to an easier rebound in the market after a short period of consolidation.

The A share market has entered the bottom area of valuation. With the increase of news coverage, the short-term rebound should continue.

Zhongyuan Securities believes that in the medium to long term, the trend of investment opportunities still need to continue to wait, after all, there is a certain difference between the bottom of the valuation and the bottom of the market.

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