The Internal And External Haze Never Dissipates&Nbsp; 2437 Points Of A-Share Double Bottom Test

With the United States and Europe debt The panic caused by the crisis came to an end, and A-shares fell into adjustment again after a rapid rebound. This week, except for Monday, when it rose, it ended slightly at a red margin. The rest of the four trading days ended with a downward adjustment. The Shanghai Stock Index finally closed at 2534.36 points, forming a relatively shrinking middle Yin line on the weekly K line, down 2.27%. So far, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has experienced a rare five consecutive weeks fall 。

Some analysts believe that at present, the European debt crisis is lingering, the economic data in Europe and the United States is poor, the Franco German summit has no substantive results, the European financial system and financial institutions will have a series of problems, and the external market will continue to have greater shocks, which will have an adverse impact on A-shares. In terms of internal factors, inflation remains high, interest rate increases are expected to rise, purchase restrictions on commercial housing in second and third tier cities have been implemented, and the expansion of the new third board is imminent. These factors will exert pressure on the current market. The form of the second bottom is preliminarily established, and the previous low point - 2437 points - is facing tests.

Weak economic data

Rekindle European and American stock markets Slump

The economic data released by the Labor Department on Wednesday showed that inflation in the United States has picked up and the employment situation is still not optimistic. In the week ended August 13, 408000 people applied for unemployment benefits for the first time, higher than the 395000 people expected by the market and 399000 people in the previous week; More than the 400000 expected by economists before; The consumer price index of the United States in July rose 3.6% year on year and 0.5% month on month, respectively, the largest increase in the past three years and the past four months. The core CPI grew 1.8% year on year, higher than the market expectation of 1.6%. At the same time, the sales of existing homes in the United States in July decreased by 3.5% month on month, to 4.67 million households at an annual rate, lower than market 4.92 million households are expected.

In addition, the summit meeting between Germany and France, the major European economies, had no substantive results, and the European financial system had major uncertainties. Lars Frisell, chief economist of the Swedish financial regulator, warned that the worsening of the European debt crisis may freeze the interbank market and cut off the source of funds, and Swedish banks must be better prepared. At the same time, it was rumored in the market that the regulatory authorities in the United States were strengthening the supervision of the branches of large European banks in the United States, because they were worried that the European debt crisis might affect the U.S. banking system.

The weak economic data in the United States and the fear that the European debt crisis will spread to financial institutions have once again triggered a sharp decline in the stock markets in Europe and the United States. On Thursday, major European stock markets, such as France, Britain, Germany and Italy, all opened low and went low. By the end of the afternoon, there was a sharp dive. The CAC40 index in Paris, France, and the DAX index in Frankfurt, Germany once fell more than 6%. By the end of the day, Milan MIB Index of Italy had the largest decline compared with the previous trading day, reaching 6.15%. The CAC40 index in Paris fell 5.48%, the DAX index in Frankfurt fell 5.82%, the IBEX35 index in Spain fell 4.70%, and the average price index of 100 stocks in the Financial Times in London fell 4.49%. On the same day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 419.40 points, or 3.68%, to 10990.81; The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 131.05 points, or 5.22%, to 2380.43; The Standard&Poor's 500 index fell 53.24 points, or 4.46%, to 1140.65. In the bulk commodity market, the international gold price (1855.30,33.30,1.83%) soared to a new historical high, while the international oil price was significantly pressured, falling more than 4% to 84 US dollars/barrel.

In fact, the combined effect of multiple negative news led to the stock market crash. Morgan Stanley, an international financial services company, cut its growth forecast for the global economy on the evening of the 17th, lowering its growth forecast for this year from 4.2% to 3.9% and for next year from 4.5% to 3.8%. Morgan Stanley also lowered its growth forecast for the euro zone economy, which is expected to decline from 2% to 1.7% this year and from 1.2% to 0.5% next year.

Analysts pointed out that the US economy may fall back into recession and the risk of European sovereign debt crisis will increase, which has become the main factor leading to the resurgence of panic and risk aversion in the global market. Faced with the sudden rise of external uncertainty, the industry seems not optimistic about whether the A-share market can once again stand firm and lead the world.

The interest rate of central bank bills goes up all the way

Expectations of interest rate increase are getting stronger

Recently, the central bank has frequently released price signals, increasing the uncertainty of policy expectations and becoming the focus of the market.

On Tuesday, the central bank issued 5 billion yuan of one-year central bank bills in the open market. It is worth noting that the interest rate of one-year central bank bills this time increased by 8.58 basis points to 3.5840%, which is higher than the current one-year fixed deposit interest rate of commercial banks by 3.50%, breaking the level that the one-year central bank bill interest rate has remained at 3.4982% for the past seven consecutive weeks.

In addition, the Central Bank announced that the People's Bank of China issued 7 billion yuan of three-month central bank bills and 1 billion yuan of three-year central bank bills on the 18th, and conducted 9 billion yuan of 91 day forward repurchase operations. Following the jump of 8.58 basis points in the 1-year central bill rate on the 16th, the 3-month and 3-year central bill rates rose 8.17 basis points and 8 basis points respectively on the 18th. At present, the issuing interest rates of three-month, one-year and three-year central bank bills are 3.1618%, 3.584% and 3.97% respectively. The 91 day repurchase rate rose 8 basis points to 3.16%. The unexpected rise of the one-year central bank note issuance rate on the 16th ignited worries about interest rate hikes in the market again. After the operation on the 18th, interest rate hike is expected to be further heated.

It is worth noting that compared with the one-year term, the three-year central bank bill focuses on deeply locking liquidity, and the interest rate signal is inferior to the former. The amount of land this time is only 1 billion yuan, which just shows that the central bank has insufficient motivation to raise the issuing interest rate "once in place". The purpose of the restart may be to test the bottom line of market interest rate and give the final hint of interest rate increase.

Therefore, some analysts believe that when the future inflation situation is still unclear, the rise of the central bank bill interest rate this week more reflects the attitude of the central bank to maintain a tight tone, which means that the central bank will pay close attention to the future price trend, and if necessary, interest rate increases will become an alternative tool for further regulation.

Of course, while the interest rate of central bank bill issuance has risen, the amount of withdrawal this week has not been significantly enlarged. Statistics show that the amount of funds due in the open market this week is 89 billion yuan, and the central bank has withdrawn 51 billion yuan in total. If there is no other operation, a net investment of 38 billion yuan will be realized this week. After the 1-year central bill interest rate went up this time, it was only about 8 basis points higher than the 1-year fixed deposit interest rate, which was quite different from the 25 basis points of the one-time interest rate increase. Before the interest rate increase in July, the 1-year central bank note issuance rate was higher than the 1-year fixed deposit rate for up to 3 months. If this is taken as a reference, the observation period for the relevant departments and the market may be longer.

Domestic inflation remains high

Low probability of turning to tightening policy

Recently, the central bank proposed the "targeted easing" policy, which is recognized by the market as the management has begun to pay attention to the structural ischemia of the real economy, and the probability of the gradual withdrawal of the tightening policy is increasing. However, given that constraints such as price and housing prices are difficult to eliminate in the short term, and the potential inflation expectation of the Federal Reserve to "print money to repay debt", the expected policy easing of the market is difficult to realize in the short term.

The National Bureau of Statistics announced on Tuesday that the consumer price index (CPI) in July rose 6.5% year on year, a 37 month high; CPI rose 0.5% month on month. At the same time, in July, the national producer price (PPI) rose 7.5% year on year and 0.1% month on month.

Analysts generally believe that the CPI and PPI data in July are basically in line with expectations, indicating that the inflation pressure is great, and food and non food prices are rising rapidly. It is expected that the inflation pressure in August and even September will still be relatively large, so it is not ruled out that the CPI will continue to rise in August. In particular, the current international situation is complex, and the financial market is turbulent. The impact of external shocks will inevitably push up the prices of bulk commodities, and eventually transmit to the Chinese market, triggering imported inflation. At the same time, considering that the impact of rising labor costs on prices in China is becoming more and more obvious, it is difficult for inflation to fall back quickly in the second half of the year, and it is difficult for the annual CPI to be less than 4.5%.

It is worth noting that on the 18th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the housing price data of 70 large and medium-sized cities in July. Compared with the 5 proposed standards of the newly released list of cities with purchase restrictions issued by the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development, 14 cities including Qinhuangdao are under pressure to issue purchase restrictions. The emergence of new purchase restrictions in the second and third tier cities is interpreted by the market as a new round of real estate regulation has come, which fully demonstrates the management's firm determination to regulate asset prices.

At the same time, the third round of quantitative easing (QE3) in the United States may be on the way. The raising of the debt ceiling and QE3 make the US dollar expected to weaken in the medium and long term. On the one hand, China's export enterprises will face great challenges due to the relative appreciation of the RMB; On the other hand, it will also bring a new round of inflation pressure to China.

Market focus turns to macro-economy

III. Potential benefits boost medium-term trend

With the impact of the debt crisis in the US and Europe tending to calm, the focus of the market began to return to macroeconomic development. For A-shares, in addition to the strong impact of external risks, the domestic economic situation is still the key to determine the future trend. From the current situation, from the perspective of slowing down railway investment and helping the transformation of industrial structure, the decision-making level is taking a structural road, but this is correct in the medium and long term, while the short-term measures to slow economic growth have become one of the main willingness to lead to insufficient action on the market.

Of course, with the concentrated release of negative expectations, the potential positive effect of the market will eventually ferment, providing the original support and boost to the market.

First of all, trillions of pensions will enter the market. Premier Wen Jiabao chaired a State Council executive meeting on Wednesday, which discussed and adopted the Twelfth Five Year Plan for the Development of China's Aged Cause, and proposed to appropriately expand the investment channels of basic pension insurance funds to maintain and increase the value of the funds on the premise of improving laws and regulations and strict supervision. However, China's pension fund is up to 2 trillion yuan, which not only opens the channel for maintaining and increasing the value of the huge pension fund, but also undoubtedly opens the gate for China's trillion yuan pension fund to enter the market, provides a continuous flow of living water for the capital market, and creates preconditions and conditions for boosting and stabilizing the market.

Secondly, overseas RMB is allowed to invest in the domestic securities market. During a three-day visit to Hong Kong, Li Keqiang, Vice Premier of the State Council, announced that overseas RMB investment in the domestic securities market was allowed, starting at 20 billion yuan, the so-called RQFII. Although the starting amount of 20 billion yuan may not be large for the total market value of more than 20 trillion yuan in China, it is only a beginning, and may be further increased in the future, which will also introduce and inject new liquidity into the A-share market. This is undoubtedly an important incentive.

Finally, the overall valuation level of A-share is at a historical low. According to data statistics, the static P/E ratio of all A-shares on August 17 (excluding loss making shares) was 17.79 times. On January 19, 1996, the lowest point of the Shanghai Composite Index was 512, and the static P/E ratio of all A-shares was 19.37 times; On June 6, 2005, the lowest point of the Shanghai Composite Index was 998, and the static P/E ratio of all A-shares was 19.24 times; On October 28, 2008, the lowest point of the Shanghai Composite Index was 1664, and the static P/E ratio of all A-shares was 14.71 times.

By comparing the above data, we find that the current valuation level of A-share is 20.93% higher than that at 1664. However, considering that the net profit of A-share listed companies increased by about 20% in 2011, the current dynamic P/E ratio of A-share is 14.85 times, which is equivalent to the static P/E ratio at 1664.

In a word, the market is still in the period of concentrated release of various uncertainties at home and abroad, and the pattern of the market's second bottoming is basically established. However, with the gradual digestion of negative factors and the elimination of pessimism, the potential positive effect of the market will finally be reflected as it should be. Therefore, some people believe that under the background that the policy and fundamental aspects of A-share are in a tangle period, the probability of taking time to get to the bottom of the market is relatively high, and once it falls sharply or it is a good opportunity to build positions in the medium term.

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