Inside And Outside The Haze Not Dispersed &Nbsp; A Shares Two Times To Bottom Test 2437 Points

With the United States and Europe debt The panic triggered by the crisis came to an end. A shares once again rebounded after a rapid rebound. This week, except for Monday, it rose sharply and rose slightly. The remaining four trading days all ended in a downward adjustment. Finally, the Shanghai stock index closed at 2534.36 points, and a relatively reduced middle Yin line formed on the weekly K line, down 2.27%. So far, the Shanghai stock index has seen a rare 5 consecutive week. Fall 。

Some analysts believe that, at present, the European debt crisis lingers, the economic data of Europe and America are not good, the Franco German summit has no substantive results, there will be a series of problems in the European financial system and financial institutions, and the external market will continue to have more shocks, which will have an adverse impact on A shares. Internal factors, high inflation, rising interest rates are expected to rise, the two or three line city commercial housing purchase order landing, the new three boards will soon expand, these factors will have pressure on the current market, the initial exploration of the two bottom form, the low point - 2437 point is facing the test.

Weak economic data

Re ignite European and American Stock Markets Plunge

U.S. labor department's economic data released on Wednesday showed that inflation in the US has risen and employment is still not optimistic. In the week ending August 13th, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits for the first time was 408 thousand, higher than the market expectations of 395 thousand people and 399 thousand people in the previous week, exceeding the 400 thousand expected by economists before. The US consumer price index in July increased by 3.6%, an increase of 0.5% over the past three years and the largest increase in the past 4 months. The core CPI grew by 1.8% over the previous year, higher than the market expected 1.6%. Meanwhile, the US housing sales decreased by 3.5% in July, at 4 million 670 thousand per annum. market The expected 4 million 920 thousand households.

In addition, the meeting between German and French heads of major economies in Europe had no tangible results and significant uncertainties in the European financial system. LarsFrisell, chief economist of the Swedish financial regulator, warned that the deterioration of the European debt crisis is likely to freeze the interbank market and cut off funding sources, and the Swedish banks must be more prepared. Meanwhile, the US market is rumor that the US regulators are stepping up surveillance of major European banks in the US because they are concerned that the European debt crisis may affect the US banking system.

The weakness of US economic data and the spread of European debt crisis to financial institutions have triggered a sharp fall in European and American stock markets. On Thursday, European major stock markets such as France, the United Kingdom, Germany and Italy were all on the low side, and there was a big dive in late afternoon. The French Paris CAC40 index and the German Frankfurt DAX index fell more than 6%. At the close, the Italy Milan MIB index fell by 6.15% compared with the previous trading day. The Paris CAC40 index fell 5.48%, the Frankfurt DAX index fell 5.82%, the Spanish IBEX35 index fell 4.70%, and the London financial times 100 stock average price index dropped 4.49%. On the same day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 419.40 points, closing at 10990.81 points, or 3.68%, while the Nasdaq composite index fell 131.05 points to 2380.43 points, or 5.22%, while the standard & Poor's 500 index fell 53.24 points, or 1140.65 points, or 4.46%. In the bulk commodity market, the international gold price (1855.30,33.30,1.83%) has soared to a new height, and the international oil price has been significantly reduced, dropping by more than 4% to 84 US dollars / barrel.

In fact, the combined effect of multiple negative news led to a sharp fall in the stock market. The international Financial Services Company Morgan Stanley lowered its growth forecast for the global economy on the evening of 17, reducing its growth forecast from 4.2% to 3.9% this year, and the next year's growth forecast is down from 4.5% to 3.8%. Morgan Stanley also lowered the euro zone economic growth forecast, this year's growth is expected to decline from 2% to 1.7%, next year's growth rate is expected to fall from 1.2% to 0.5%.

Analysts pointed out that the US economy may fall into recession and the risk of European sovereign debt crisis intensified, which has become the main factor leading to the global market panic and risk aversion. Faced with the sudden rise of external uncertainties, whether the A share market can stand up again and lead the world, the industry seems to be not optimistic.

The central bank's interest rate goes up all the way.

Interest rates are expected to grow.

Recently, the central bank has frequently released price signals, which has increased the uncertainty of policy expectations and has become the focus of market attention.

On Tuesday, the central bank issued 1 yuan central bank votes for 5 billion yuan in the open market. It is worth noting that the issuance rate of the 1 year central bank votes rose by 8.58 basis points to 3.5840%, exceeding the current one-year fixed deposit rate of 3.50% for commercial banks, breaking the past seven weeks and 1 years, and the central bank's interest rate remained at 3.4982% level.

In addition, the central bank announcement shows that the people's Bank of China 18 days tender to issue 7 billion yuan March central bank ticket, 1 billion yuan 3 year central bank ticket and 9 billion yuan 91 day repurchase operation. Following the 16 day 1 year central bank interest rate jumped 8.58 basis points, the March and 3 year central bank rates rose 8.17 basis points and 8 basis points on the 18 day, respectively. At present, the issuance rates for March, 1 and 3 years are 3.1618%, 3.584% and 3.97% respectively. The 91 day repo rate rose 8 basis points to 3.16%. The 1 - year central issue rate rose 16 days ago, raising the market interest rate again. After 18 days of operation, the rate hike is expected to further increase.

It is noteworthy that, compared with the 1 year period, the 3 - year central bank focuses on deep locking liquidity, and the interest rate signal is not as good as the former. The 1 billion yuan only indicates that the central bank "once in place" has little incentive to raise interest rates, and the purpose of restarting is to test the bottom line of market interest rates and issue the final implication of raising interest rates.

Therefore, some analysts believe that in the future inflation situation is still uncertain, the central bank's interest rate upward this week reflects more the central bank will maintain a tight tone of the attitude, which means that the central bank will pay close attention to future price movements, once needed, interest rate increases will become the next step of regulation and control tool.

Of course, at the same time, the volume of circulation issued by the central bank has not been significantly enlarged. Statistics show that the amount of funds expended in the open market this week is 89 billion yuan, and the central bank will return 51 billion yuan in total. If there is no other operation, this week will achieve a net investment of 38 billion yuan. The interest rate of the 1 - year central bank is only 8 basis points higher than the 1 - year fixed deposit rate, which is quite different from the 25 basis points of a rate increase. Before raising interest rates in July, the issuance rate of the 1 - year central issue is longer than the 1 - year fixed interest rate for 3 months. If taken as a reference, the observation period for the departments concerned and the market may still have a long time to go.

Domestic inflation remains high.

Deflation to low probability

Recently, the central bank has put forward a policy of "directional easing", which has been recognized by the market as the management layer has begun to attach importance to the structural economic type of ischemia in the real economy, and the probability of tightening policy is gradually increasing. But in view of the difficulty of eliminating prices and housing prices in the short term and the potential inflation expectations of the Fed's "printing money and debt repayment", the market's policy is expected to ease up in the short term.

The National Bureau of Statistics announced Tuesday that the consumer price index (CPI) rose 6.5% in July, a 37 month high and 0.5% in the month of CPI. Meanwhile, the producer price (PPI) of industrial producers rose by 7.5% in July, up 0.1% from the same month.

Analysts generally believe that the CPI and PPI data in July are basically the same as expected, indicating that inflation pressure is very high. The prices of food and non food prices are rising very fast. It is expected that the August data and even the inflation pressure in September will still be relatively large, and the possibility of CPI continuing to rise in August will not be ruled out. In particular, the current international situation is more complex. Financial market turbulence and external shocks will inevitably push up commodity prices and eventually lead to imported market inflation. At the same time, taking into account the current domestic labor costs rising impact on prices is increasingly obvious, inflation in the second half of the year is also difficult to quickly fall, CPI is afraid of less than 4.5% throughout the year.

It is noteworthy that on the 18 day, the National Bureau of statistics issued 70 housing prices data for large and medium cities in July, compared with 5 recommendations on the list of newly purchased cities by the Ministry of housing, and 14 cities such as Qinhuangdao were under pressure to issue restriction orders. The two or three line of new purchase cities surfaced, interpreted by the market as the advent of a new round of real estate regulation, which fully demonstrates the firm determination of management to control asset prices.

At the same time, the US's third round of quantitative easing (QE3) is already in the firing line. Raising the debt ceiling and QE3 will weaken the US dollar in the medium to long term. On the one hand, China's export enterprises will face enormous challenges due to the relative appreciation of the renminbi. On the other hand, it will bring a new round of inflationary pressure to our country.

Market focus shifts to macro economy

Three potential good to boost the medium-term trend

With the impact of the debt crisis in the US and Europe tending to be calm, the focus of the market began to return to the development of the macro-economy. For A shares, besides the strong impact of external risks, the domestic economic situation is still the key to determining the trend of the future market. Judging from the current situation, from slowing down railway investment and helping the transformation of industrial structure, the decision-making level is going out of the way of structural adjustment, but this medium and long term right, and short-term measures to slow down economic growth have become one of the main willing to cause insufficient action on the market.

Of course, with the centralization of negative expectations, the potential profit effect of the market will eventually be fermented, which should support and boost the market.

First, trillions of pension gates will enter the market. Premier Wen Jiabao presided over a State Council executive meeting on Wednesday to discuss the adoption of the "12th Five-Year plan" for the development of China's aging industry, and proposed that under the premise of improving the regulations and strict supervision, we should appropriately expand the investment channels for the basic old-age insurance fund so as to maintain and increase the value. The endowment insurance fund in China is as high as 2 trillion, which not only opens up a way to maintain and increase the value of the huge pension fund, but also undoubtedly creates a precondition and condition for China's trillions of pensions to enter the market, providing a continuous flow of water for the capital market, and boosting and stabilizing the market.

Second, allowing overseas RMB to invest in domestic securities market. Li Keqiang, vice premier of the State Council, announced in a three day visit to Hong Kong that he allowed foreign yuan to invest in the domestic securities market. The initial amount was 20 billion yuan, that is, the so-called RQFII. Although the starting point of 20 billion yuan is probably not large for the domestic market value of over 20 trillion yuan, it is only a beginning. It may increase further in the future, and will also introduce and inject new liquidity into the A share market. This is undoubtedly an important positive stimulus.

Finally, the overall valuation level of A shares is at a historic low. According to statistics, the static P / E ratio of all A shares in August 17th was 17.79 times. In January 19, 1996, the Shanghai Composite Index lowest point 512 points, all A shares static price earnings ratio was 19.37 times; in June 6, 2005, the Shanghai Composite Index lowest point 998 points, all A shares static price earnings ratio was 19.24 times; in October 28, 2008, the Shanghai Composite Index lowest point 1664 points, all A shares static price earnings ratio was 14.71 times.

Comparing the above data, we find that the valuation level of A shares is 20.93% higher than 1664 points at present. But considering that the net profit of A share listed companies increased by 20% in 2011, the dynamic P / E ratio of A shares is 14.85 times, which is equivalent to the static P / E ratio at 1664.

In short, the market is still in a concentrated release period of various uncertainties at home and abroad. The two bottom of the market is basically established, but with the gradual digestion of negative factors and the elimination of pessimism, the potential profit effect of the market will eventually be reflected. Therefore, there is a view that when A shares are in a tangle of policy and fundamentals, it is a good chance to use the time to get out of the market, once it falls sharply or is a good opportunity to build positions in the medium term.