In The Month, The Price Of Refined Oil Is Still Variable &Nbsp, And The Voice Of Reform Pricing Mechanism Is Rising.

According to domestic research institutions, since August 16th, China's refined oil price adjustment referred to the three crude oil rate of change began to run negatively to the price threshold.

For a long time, domestic oil prices have gone up and down, allowing people to open up at the end of the month.

But in recent days, international oil prices fluctuate, experts believe that the price adjustment within the month is still variable.

Why is China's oil price hard to beat the price threshold?

Is China's current pricing mechanism easy to rise or fall?

Oil prices remain unchanged in the month.

"Listen to the radio, we may have to adjust the price of oil until August 25th, but we must look at the trend of international oil prices," he said.

A taxi master in Minhang District, Shanghai, told reporters.

Since the domestic oil pricing mechanism has been linked to international crude oil, taxi drivers have been very concerned about the trend of international oil prices.

Since August, the US debt crisis and the S & P have lowered the US.

Taking Brent oil price, which is based on China's refined oil price adjustment as an example, the price rebounded slowly to $110.60 / barrel after a low of 102.57 US dollars / barrel in August 9th.

In August 18th, it fell $3.61 / barrel on a single day and dropped to $106.99 / barrel.

Liao Kaishun, an energy analyst at Energy Research Institute, said that if Brent's oil price is below the level of 106 US dollars / barrel, by August 25th, the window of domestic oil product reduction may be opened.

But in recent days, international oil prices fluctuated frequently and fluctuated. "The price cut at the end of the month is promising, but it is not a probability event."

Cheng Ruifeng, an analyst at Dongfang oil and gas network, an energy research institute, also believes that if the price of crude oil remains near $109 / barrel, the domestic price adjustment window may be delayed until early September.

Domestic consumers are looking forward to this price reduction for a long time.

The latest oil product in China

Since the surge in April 7th this year, domestic oil prices have not moved for more than four months, and during this period, the international two benchmark oil price peaks and valleys are all over 20%.

In stark contrast, by the impact of falling international oil prices, Sinopec Hongkong oil station in August 10th announced that it lowered the retail price of gasoline and diesel, which is the fourth time since May that Sinopec has adjusted its price in Hongkong, of which three have been cut.

Is the pricing mechanism really "easy to rise or fall"?

China's current pricing mechanism for refined oil stipulates that the price of moving crude oil in Brent, Dubai and inta three places in the international market has been moving forward or minus more than 4% for 22 consecutive working days. That is to say, when the change of the "three crude oil rate of change" is over 4%, the domestic oil price can be adjusted correspondingly.

Why has the international crude oil price experienced such a big decline, and it is difficult for the domestic market to adjust the threshold?

Why the same enterprise, Sinopec's price of refined oil in the mainland can "reasonably" stick to the highest level in history?

Is China's existing oil pricing mechanism "rising or falling"?

In response to many questions, the reporter learned that, due to the fact that China's current pricing mechanism still needs to be improved, coupled with the fluctuation of international oil prices this year, there are still some factors that are likely to rise or fall in domestic oil prices this year.

First of all, from the reference range of the 4% price adjustment, the positive negative change of 4% seems to be the same. Actually, the actual difficulty of rising and falling is not the same.

With us $100 / barrel of international oil price, we need to increase US $4 / barrel to reach US $104 / barrel, and we can go through the threshold of price adjustment. Once we reach 104 US dollars / barrel, if we want to meet the downward adjustment conditions, we will have to fall 4.16 US dollars / barrel when we fall 4%.

From this point of view, if it goes up, it is not so easy to fall down.

In addition, Dong Xiucheng, vice president of the school of Business Administration of PetroChina (9.78, -0.03, -0.31%) University (micro-blog) believes that the price adjustment period referenced by China's refined oil pricing mechanism is too long, resulting in domestic oil prices often lagging behind the trend of international oil prices, and this year the domestic refined oil price adjustment tends to rise and fall.

According to Dong Xiucheng analysis, the 22 working days required in China's current pricing mechanism are mobile, that is, the price of the latest day is pushed forward for 22 working days, and the price is the effective price range.

Since the beginning of this year, the international crude oil price has gone through a soaring market. The overall level of oil price usually rises to $10 per month, while the period of decline is longer, so the price decline within the price range is hard to reach 4%.

What is more noteworthy is that the adjustment of the price adjustment times by the state is not in place, making it difficult for the next price adjustment.

"Sometimes good deeds are not known."

Dong Xiucheng, for example, should raise the price to 8 yuan / liter according to the normal measurement price, while the state narrowed the gains by taking into account some factors, only to 7.5 yuan / liter.

In this way, if the international crude oil price goes down in the later stage, when the price adjustment standard needs to be reduced to 7.8 yuan / liter, it is impossible to reduce the price level based on the current domestic price level below the international level.

Indeed, due to the lack of pparency in the whole process of oil price adjustment in China, the calculation of crude oil change rate in three places is too "mysterious". On the one hand, the measures taken by the state to control the increase during the time of inflation are not understood by consumers; on the other hand, when the international oil price falls, the international oil price slump and the domestic price adjustment conditions have not yet met due to the current price adjustment period, which also causes consumers to misunderstand the previous price adjustment.

new

"In Singapore, the complete marketization of refined oil is priced by enterprises, and the price of gasoline and diesel has changed almost every week."

Du Mingyu, a Singaporean who came to Shanghai on business, told reporters that because of frequent changes, the rate of increase would not be particularly large.

In order to further integrate with the international market, shorten the time period of reference for the pricing mechanism of refined oil products, and speed up the frequency of price adjustment has become the reform direction widely appealed by the industry.

Lin Boqiang, director of the energy economics research center of Xiamen University (micro-blog), believes that the 22 working days stipulated in the oil pricing mechanism should be shortened to 10 working days, which will help to follow the changes in the international market in a timely manner, and the difficulty of the operation of speculators on the oil market will also increase.

Reporters learned from several refineries in Shanghai that the refining sector of petrochemical enterprises has been losing money this year. On the one hand, when domestic oil prices rose at the beginning of the year, the price of domestic refined oil had not been put in place. Every time the oil price was raised, the price of crude oil was lowered. On the other hand, the crude oil processed before processing was also imported crude oil one or two months ago, and the price was about 100 dollars per barrel.

Although international oil prices are now in the downlink channel, due to the lagging effect of crude oil processing, enterprises are still processing high priced oil.

Enterprises also hope that the domestic oil pricing mechanism can shorten the cycle, integrate with the international market in a timely manner, and truly achieve marketization.

In view of the difficulty of raising and lowering the pricing mechanism, Cheng Ruifeng, an analyst of Dongfang oil and gas network, suggested that in addition to speeding up the price adjustment, the price adjustment of refined oil could also be carried out by means of asymmetric price adjustment, that is, when the price of refined oil was raised, the rate of change of the three reference points should be maintained at 4%, and the rate of change of the three reference to the reduction should be reduced to about 3%.

An expert from the development research center of the State Council told reporters that China's current pricing plan for refined oil products is still a pitional program in the reform process. At present, we should further promote the reform of the refined oil distribution system and the reform of the pricing mechanism.

In the long run, the ultimate goal of domestic oil price reform is to liberalize prices, which are formed by market competition and priced independently by enterprises.

Of course, we must not forget that marketization is a double-edged sword.

"If the new pricing mechanism is introduced, there may be a drop in domestic oil prices before, but it is also worth reminding that if the international oil price is rising, the domestic oil price will also rise rapidly."

Dong Xiucheng told reporters that compared with Europe, even with neighboring countries such as Japan, Korea and Singapore, the price of refined oil in China is still on the low side, which is precisely the result of China's regulation of prices.

Dong Xiucheng believes that even if the new pricing mechanism is introduced, the government's regulation of prices can not be completely released in the short term.

If the frequency of price adjustment is speeding up, subsidies for vulnerable groups such as agriculture, fisheries, public pport and public welfare industries should also be implemented as soon as possible.

In addition, if the oil price is too high, the oil companies will gain huge profits. The government departments can also adjust them by means of Taxation and other means.