Interbank 7 Day Interest Rate Break Through 4%&Nbsp; Interest Rate Hike Is Expected To Shroud The Market.

The overall interest rate of the central bank has been brought up. Increase interest Expected, coupled with the recent impact of the new issue and the freezing of funds for the purchase of Guodian power (2.46,0.01,0.41%) convertible bonds, the interest rate on capital rose sharply last Thursday and Friday. The overnight interbank offered rate (Shibor) overnight in Shanghai rose to 3.6892%, and the 7 day variety was more than half a month. First break 4%.

As of August 19th, the overnight interest rate of Shibor rose by 24.67 basis points, 3.6892%; 7 days interest rate jumped 53.75 basis points, reported 4.3033%; 2 week interest rate rose 24.75 basis points, reported 4.5450%; 1 month interest rate increased by 35.75 basis points, 5.4275%. In the interbank bond market, repo rate continued to maintain a relatively rapid upward trend last Friday, of which 7 days rose 64.8 basis points to 4.479%, and the 21 day varieties jumped 165.5 basis points to 5.803%.

In fact, capital interest rates have been on the rise for nearly two weeks until the outbreak began last Thursday. In the case of monetary policy entering the observation period, and the central bank's cumulative net investment of over 200 billion yuan for five consecutive weeks, why is the capital face so vulnerable?

"Current capital The balance between supply and demand is a fragile balance and can easily be broken. " Sheng Hongqing, chief macroeconomic analyst at 3.06,0.02,0.66%, wrote on Thursday that "when the required reserve ratio is at an all-time high, the current capital market in the interbank market is a fragile balance dominated by the central bank and vulnerable to adverse news." A trader told reporters, "this period of time is very fragile capital market, some of the market is very tense."

In Sheng Hongqing's view, even if the central bank increases the amount of open market operation instead of "raising the standard", once the volume of operation exceeds 50 billion yuan, the market's expectation of capital tightening will rise sharply, and the interest rate of capital will not be excluded from returning to the high level of 6%~9% in June and July.

" Economics Both the surface and the capital side are very fragile. The central bank is afraid to raise interest rates on the one hand, and inflation is also on the one hand, so we must guard against the sudden policy disturbance of the central bank. A bond investment manager told reporters, "as long as the CPI stays high, the capital can not be particularly relaxed. At present, such a moderate tension is normal."

During the most tense period of bond market in July, Shibor rose to 5.7742% in 7 days, and in June 23rd, after 7 times of raising the deposit reserve ratio in the central bank, the 7 day interest rate stood at 9% of the historical high.

Feng Yuming, chief analyst of Orient Securities fixed income, believes that the main reason for the recent rise in the interbank market repo rate is the comprehensive impact of the factors such as the purchase of Guodian convertible bonds and the payment of deposits by banks 25 days a month, so the repo rate 25 days ago may still be in a relatively high position, but after 25 days, with the gradual disappearance of these factors, the capital side will be eased.

"The economic downturn will be more obvious in the next few months, so tightening policy will be eased, and monetary authorities are unlikely to make the market continue to be tight again." Feng Yuming said.

Since the 1 year central bank's interest rate released last Tuesday reached 8.58 basis points, the 3 year central bank's vote and the March central bank's interest rate increased by about 8 basis points on Thursday. The issuance rate of the central bank has gone up all the way, resulting in the increasingly vigorous interest rate increase.