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The Downward Trend Of Cotton Is Still Continuing.

2011/8/22 13:25:00 47

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After Zheng cotton hit a new low of 20340 yuan / ton, there was a rebound demand from the technical side. However, judging from the trend in recent days, the strength and intensity of the rebound are weak and still in a downward channel.

The purchase and storage work will start, but whether it will become a support is still uncertain.

As of August 18th, China's cotton price index (level 328) was 19058 yuan / ton, up 1 yuan / ton on the previous day, close to the opening time of storage and purchase, although there was a low price of 19800 yuan / ton, but it did not indicate that the bidding method was fixed price, even in fixed price way, but from the collection and storage of the past years, the situation still fell in the process of purchasing and storing.

Production and inventory increase and consumption decrease in the new year

According to the latest USDA report, the world's cotton production is 26 million 717 thousand tons, a 24 million 949 thousand increase over the previous year. At present, the United States has entered the new year, the harvest area of the United States cotton is about 9 million 700 thousand acres, and the output is expected to be 3 million 610 thousand tons. China is also about to usher in a new cotton harvest. At present, the output is estimated at 7 million 185 thousand tons, a substantial increase over the previous year's 6 million 641 thousand tons.

Relative to the increase in output, the report has been reducing the world for fourth consecutive months.

cotton

Consumption.

According to the report, the global cotton supply and demand exceed 1 million 640 thousand tons in the new year, accounting for about 6.5% of the global consumption.

The demand is improving, but the current situation of high yield

Because of the large number of enterprises in the early stage of cotton rising

Purchasing cotton

In the past 1 million 350 thousand years, the total cotton business inventory in China was up to the end of July, which was 150 thousand tons more than 1 million 200 thousand tons in the same period last year.

However, the import situation of China has improved. According to China Customs statistics, in July, 157 thousand tons of cotton imported from China increased by 31%.

The improvement of Chinese imports is also reflected in the weekly export of US cotton. In recent weeks, the situation of China's negative signing has changed.

In addition to entry, some domestic enterprises have also replenishment.

Along with the gradual improvement of demand, new cotton will also be listed on the market.

Cotton will continue to fall in the medium term

On the whole, cotton enterprises are still in the inventory stage, and the new year is coming.

consumption

The reduction will have an impact on the latter trend. From the external market and economic environment, the three countries are the main countries of China's textile and clothing exports because of the global economic slowdown, especially the US recession, Japan's nuclear impact recession and the EU's debt crisis. The recession of three countries is bound to affect demand, thus affecting China's textile and clothing exports, so there is still room for decline in the medium term.

Technically, from the daily K-line chart of cotton continuous contract, since October 2010, as of June 2011, it has gone out of the M form and broke through the neckline position. Through the calculation of the target position of M, the target reached at least 16280 yuan / ton after breaking through the neckline, and there is still room for reduction in the medium term.