The Renminbi Is "Lying In The Corner" Peeping Around The Corner.

Every change in the RMB exchange rate is always accompanied by the pursuit of funds.

At present, the yuan keeps rising against the US dollar.

In August 16th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar reached a new high of 6.3925. In August 17th, Vice Premier Li Keqiang said that Hongkong institutions were allowed to invest in the mainland by means of RMB qualified overseas institutional investor (RQFII), with a starting amount of 20 billion yuan.

All these have aroused the concern of the market for hot money.

But now, the hot money is surprisingly quiet.

"There is no significant difference at present, the fund is still waiting for QE3 to come out, which is a short situation in China without further increase in interest rates and the appreciation of US Treasury bonds."

In August 18th, Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences "hot money" research expert Li Youhuan said.

The situation seems to be somewhat uncertain, and funds are "lying" in some secluded corners.

The 6.3 Era

Since August, the RMB pair

This seems to be a very difficult solution for bank capital traders.

There is a view that the decision making department intends to use the exchange rate tools to accelerate the appreciation of the renminbi, help to adjust the economic structure, and ease room for other monetary policies, including interest rates.

A central bank close source also revealed that the official did consider this, hoping to hedge against the negative impact of the US debt crisis on China, such as capital inflow and inflation.

The strong import and export data in the two quarter also seemed to support the view of appreciation.

However, it seems that customs data can not fully confirm that the export situation is very good.

For example, in July this year, the export commodities list of China's customs showed that, for more than 30 kinds of key commodities, in terms of export volume, the growth rate of more than ten commodities from 1 to July was positive.

Ward, chairman of the Asset Management Co's board of directors, said that under the US dollar linked exchange rate system, the renminbi will appreciate significantly, and the sharp distortion is still increasing - which means that the price of RMB assets will rise further.

He believes that the most fear of stall in capital, that is, to recur the 2008 crisis, that is, the large amount of money put into circulation, will lead to price increases.

In fact, in Lu Qi Yuan's view, the real measurement.

A Wall Street official close to the Fed said that China seemed calm when the US and Europe were in debt crisis, but its horror was that financial turmoil could be a fatal blow to the economy.

Reversal signal?

According to the General Administration of customs and the Ministry of Commerce, China's trade surplus and foreign direct investment in July were 31 billion 484 million US dollars and 8 billion 300 million US dollars respectively. At the end of July, the exchange rate was estimated to be about 34 billion US dollars in July.

If the "residual method" commonly used in the industry (new foreign exchange occupation, trade surplus, actual utilization of foreign capital = hot money), roughly judge the flow of funds, it is not hard to see that the funds showed signs of outflow in July.

But the safe does not agree with this approach.

Does this imply that the turmoil in the financial market has intensified and the return of international capital has been chosen? This trend is in line with the monitoring results of Li Yu Hwan.

But he believes that this is only a temporary phenomenon. Once the new form is formed, such as the US QE3 and China's interest rate hike, the flow of capital will soon be broken.

In fact, "the worries of international capital on China's economy have long been reflected in the stock price. The peak of the hot money has already passed. The biggest surprise is its sudden reversal and the flow of capital out."

Xie Guozhong said.

Xie Guozhong believes that when the developed countries' monetary policy changes, or if one day the market thinks that the appreciation of the renminbi is only a curve game, it may be that the flow of funds begins to turn a lot.

And every crisis is caused by capital flight. First, the appreciation of the local currency has risen sharply, and then one day it has depreciated. Therefore, capital has fled through regular trade.

"The intention of the recent appreciation of the decision-making level may also have the meaning of attracting funds, and it also fears the outflow of funds," Xie Guozhong said.