Where Is Cotton Robbing?

In just 5 months, the cotton spinning industry has been devastated and scattered everywhere.

From August 2010 to August this year, cotton prices, like "roller coaster", jumped from the base point of 17 thousand yuan / ton to 34 thousand yuan / ton in March this year.

Since then, it has fallen from 34 thousand yuan / ton to nearly 20 thousand yuan / ton, and the spot price of cotton has fallen by over 4.

The ups and downs of the market have left cotton spinning enterprises on pins and needles. Some enterprises are hoarding cotton stocks at high prices, but now they are a huge burden of losses.

After countless speculators won the game, there is only one feather in the cotton market today.

The purchasing demand of downstream textile industry is sluggish.

In August 4th, the economic and Trade Department of the national development and Reform Commission held a cotton conference to solve the problem of cotton. The meeting decided that after the new cotton market came into operation in 2011, the country would purchase and store the cotton produced in 13 provinces and municipalities in accordance with the fixed price of 19800 yuan / ton through the national cotton trading market.

This is a price slump.

Who is short?

Starting from March this year, the spot price of cotton has fallen from 32000 yuan / ton to 19500 yuan per ton. After the frantic speculators left the field, the cotton price was beaten back to its original form.

Whether cotton prices soared or slumped last year,

"China business" reporter learned from a number of industry insiders, this round of cotton bull market let a nickname "savage" trader hand in the cotton speculation circle to become famous.

According to a person close to "savage", the savage was only 30 years old and started at about 6000000 yuan. When the cotton rose in 2010, he held more than 30 thousand hands and then dropped it at a high level. At the beginning of this year, he beat the tempo again, and finally made a profit of over $1 billion.

However, in this smokeless cotton futures battlefield, it is not only savages who win through speculation. In this year's cotton shorting market, some of the Chinese textile giants are involved in the fighting. Even the large cotton traders from Xinjiang, private equity funds from Beijing and other famous Zhejiang department's hot money, who are famous for their "wall grass", are all in the market.

In the futures market, to win the battle, the most important thing is to pay attention to the trend.

That is to say, when the fundamentals of cotton are better, and we have been doing a lot of work for a long time, the speculative capital will join the ranks in the same way. But when the fundamentals of cotton become worse, the speculative capital will also change the camp and backhand.

The clustering effect of such funds has virtually caused the rise and fall of cotton, which is not only fast but also large.

In this speculative game, numerous cotton ginning mills, cotton merchants and Cotton Traders on the spot market are unfortunately victims of the game.

The sharp rise and fall of cotton prices has made it difficult for many spot businesses to adapt.

A cotton trader has used this sentence to describe the cotton market in the past two years, that is, the worst cotton has sold the highest price, and the best cotton has lost money to sell the lowest price.

"During the high cotton price period in 2010, traders rushed to buy cotton. We found that there was a gap in high-grade cotton, so when the price was good, we first dropped the low grade cotton. At that time, we felt that the high-grade cotton would give a good price to the back.

However, since the beginning of March 2011, cotton prices have continued to decline, and no one has been able to keep good cotton at high prices. Finally, they can only sell at a loss, "said Zhu Huiting, senior analyst at China cotton information network.

Because of the collapse of cotton and the lack of cotton in the hands and the pressure to repay loans, a large number of small and medium-sized cotton enterprises were slowly boiled away in warm water.

Reporters learned that in 2010, loans from rural credit cooperatives in Xinjiang autonomous region increased by 25 billion yuan compared with the beginning of the year, of which loans for agriculture, rural areas and farmers were not less than 20 billion yuan. The increase was the highest in the past years, mainly around the grain, cotton and other markets of "agriculture, rural areas and farmers".

In May of this year, the Xinjiang Agricultural Development Bank launched the loan recovery plan, which made the price war of local cotton more intense.

According to people familiar with the matter, the local agricultural development bank has introduced a blacklist system. If the enterprise fails to repay the loan on time, it will soon be included in the loan blacklist.

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Export slump

At this time, as China's first textile exporter, the revival of the international textile and clothing consumer market is still far from being expected.

Pessimism continues to spread in an atmosphere of increased risk for the two global economy.

It is precisely because of the overall depression of the textile and garment industry that many enterprises have reduced the purchase of cotton yarn and the order is scarce.

"Xinjiang cotton has a small number of sales, textile mill procurement volume is still not large, all are purchasing at little by little," Liu manager of Shawan cotton mill in Xinjiang told reporters. "First look at it for a while, and now we have begun to sell it. Even if we have a reserve price, we still wait for orders to get better."

Reporters learned that, although Liu's cotton ginning plant promptly cleared the goods in the beginning of this year to avoid the fate of being "deeply dressed", she did not receive textile orders in the past month or so to keep her cautious about acquiring new cotton.

Xinjiang's annual cotton output accounts for more than 1/3 of the total output of the country, which has become the hardest hit area of the "cotton robbery".

Mr. cotton Ngan, who is located in Akesu, Xinjiang, told reporters that the local ginning plants are numerous and numerous. They spread all over the villages and towns at the county level and township level. After the cotton harvested cotton was sold to the ginning factory, they were processed into lint by the ginning mill and then sold to the textile enterprises.

But most of these ginning plants are at the brink of life and death.

"When the new cotton market came into being in August and September 2010, the local banks in Xinjiang, like the Agricultural Development Bank, would lend money to the cotton mill to buy new cotton. The loan period is usually one year. Now many cotton ginning plants are still full of cotton sold at high price last year, and the cotton yarn is also not sold. There is no money to repay the loan. Some even mortgage the cotton to the bank at a very low price to repay it."

One industry insider said.

According to the data released by China cotton information network, in August 16th, the Xinjiang real estate grade four cotton was 18000 yuan / ton, and the futures warehouse warehouse cotton was 19500 yuan ~19700 yuan / ton, all lower than this year's cotton purchase and storage price formulated by the national development and Reform Commission. This is the domestic cotton spot price for two consecutive weeks lower than the national storage price 19800 yuan / ton.

"Unprecedented pressure on cotton spinning industry is definitely a disastrous blow.

Processing cotton yarn is not as valuable as raw materials, and the cost of money can not be made.

A general manager of a cotton textile company in Changle, Fujian, told reporters that the company is striving to produce textile products of other raw materials.

Changle enjoys the reputation of "Textile City". It is one of the three key areas of knitted fabric in the country and one of the three million spindles.

"Last year, the processing fee of 1 tons can earn 10 thousand yuan. What is unexpected is that nothing will be done this year, and 1 tons of raw materials will be charged 10 thousand yuan."

The manager said.

In November last year, the company purchased a batch of lint at the price of 32 thousand ~3.3 yuan / ton, because no order, the workshop did not dare to start, and now these raw materials are still stacked in the warehouse.

He told reporters that the price of cotton yarn has been very stable in previous years. The market price is generally around 40 thousand yuan / ton, and the market price of cotton yarn has dropped to 28 thousand ~2.9 yuan / ton this year.

"At present, the shortage is actually the order, and the weakening of consumption makes the demand for cotton yarn in downstream enterprises also decreasing."

The manager analyzed, "in previous years, our business mainly depended on exports. This year, because of the earthquake in Japan and the depression of the US economy, the international demand is weak, so we can't find customers everywhere."