Cotton Prices Play Bungee Jumping, Cotton Textile Industry Is On The Sidelines.

　　 After a rare good year last year, in the first half of this year, China cotton spinning The textile industry's market situation has been on the decline. Many cotton textile enterprises have gone through "ice and fire". The instability of cotton prices is still the primary problem in the cotton textile industry. The huge fluctuation of cotton prices has a huge impact on the industry.

As domestic and foreign market demand continues to slump, the pressure of inventory in cotton spinning enterprises is huge, and the adjustment of national macro monetary policy, enterprises are generally faced with financing difficulties and liquidity is in a state of tension. Due to the unfavorable factors and uncertainties, it is difficult to change the market situation in the second half of this year, and the cotton textile industry will face a shuffle.

According to the specific time period, the textile market in the past year was very hot, and the first quarter of this year continued a good momentum. However, as the price of cotton and other textile materials continues to fall, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is increasingly strong, and industry confidence is frustrated. As cotton prices continued to fall, the enterprises in the rear road did not dare to rush the order, the orders were significantly reduced, the enterprises increased their stock intentions, and the whole industry chain was sluggish.

The feelings of enterprises are also reflected in the weakening of a series of data and indicators. This year 1~5 months, China's cotton textile industry above designated size enterprises accounted for 9.25% of the deficit, of which the loss of enterprises in May increased by 113.3% compared with April. In April and May, the average profit margin of cotton textile enterprises was only 4.90%; the average production and sales rate in April and May dropped to 97.90% in the two months, reaching the lowest level since the fourth quarter of the fourth quarter; the total industrial output value, export delivery value, main business income and total profit growth rate slowed down compared with the first quarter.

Since March this year, cotton and other textiles raw material Prices continued to fall. In August 12th, the B index for cotton prices representing the average selling price of lint cotton in the mainland was 19185 yuan / ton, down 38.5% from the highest point this year. At present, the price of 32 cotton yarn is 27400 yuan / ton. Even if we buy cotton at the current price, the loss per ton of yarn will reach about 1000 yuan. Due to the problem of production cycle, enterprises now use cotton purchased one or two months ago or earlier, resulting in more serious losses.

From the current situation, the future Cotton market There are still many factors of price instability. As textile operations are still weak and demand for cotton is hard to pick up, the cotton market is still showing signs of improvement. Cotton sales enterprises have greater pressure to go inventory, resulting in the market price decline direction is difficult to change, the cotton spot market price lacks strong support factors to stop or stabilize. According to the current growth situation, the cotton production in the new year is expected to increase substantially, and the time of listing may be earlier, which will further inhibit the formation of cotton prices.

From the point of view of exports, the current trend of order transfer is obvious, coupled with the continued appreciation of RMB, the rising labor costs, the increase of business cost, and the decline of the international competitiveness of cotton textile enterprises. The adjustment of cotton price instability and macro policies such as money and industry has made enterprises more cautious when accepting export orders, and even had to give up long lists and large orders. Many enterprises reflected that the order fell by about 20% this year. Data show that in 1~5 months, the number of imported cotton products from the United States decreased by 6.1% compared with the same period last year, of which the number of imported cotton products from China dropped by 13.4%, and the number of imported cotton products from Vietnam, Bangladesh and Indonesia increased by 9.4%, 9.1% and 10.1% respectively.

Political turmoil in some parts of the world and natural disasters in parts of the world have led to an increase in Global trade risk. The debt crisis in Europe and the United States will also drag on the recovery process of the world economy, which will have an adverse impact on the export of cotton textiles. The export situation in the second half of this year will mainly depend on the recovery level of orders in the traditional peak season.

In addition, cotton textile enterprises are generally faced with financial pressure. On the one hand, due to the reduction of orders, the stock of enterprises has increased greatly. According to the investigation by the relevant organizations, the stock of cotton textile enterprises has generally doubled, and some enterprises' stock has reached 3 months, an increase of 2 times. On the other hand, the financing of enterprises is difficult and the cost is increased. 1~5 cotton textile enterprises in China, the main business costs, main business taxes and additional year-on-year growth of 34%, 26.2%, business, management and financial expenses grew by 23.4%, 29.3%, 43% respectively. The adjustment of national macro monetary policy has great influence on cotton textile enterprises, which brings great pressure to capital turnover and cost. Affected by this, small and medium-sized cotton textile enterprises shutting down a serious phenomenon, including large enterprises, including cotton textile enterprises have appeared the phenomenon of operating rate decline.

Comprehensive analysis of the first half of the statistical data and current market situation, it is expected that the cotton textile industry in the second half of the year will be more difficult to reverse the downward trend. As many enterprises have said, cotton textile enterprises are facing a new round of test of survival of the fittest, the pressure of upgrading and transformation is highlighted.