Ye Tan: The Central Bank'S Meetings Are Not New, And There Are Golden Lights In The Era Of Economic Black Iron.

Gold is down, not the capital market.

As of August 24th, the US stock market rose for three consecutive days, and gold fell for two consecutive days. But the precious metal market began to experience a baptism of plunging. The gold price dropped from 1741.50 to two U.S. dollars in the historical high of 1911.80 US dollars / ounce.

Although silver's earlier growth is inferior to gold, it has not been spared, with a total drop of nearly 10% in two days.

The gold slumping is a technical correction caused by profit taking, which is exactly the same as that of Laden when he died.

According to gsell, hedge funds gained profits when the stock market fell and gold rose.

More and more individual investors are longing for gold to break through the $2000 mark per ounce. The online survey shows that 95% of investors see more gold. In the two days of gold falling, 12 of COMEX gold contracts 12 and about 300000 respectively.

Shortening the harvest cycle is uncertain in the market.

The biggest uncertainty in the market is whether the Federal Reserve will launch QE3.

In August 26th, the Central Bank of the world will hold a regular annual meeting in Jackson, Wyoming.

A year ago, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke announced the launch of the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy at a regular meeting. This year, investors are uneasy about whether Bernanke will launch the third round of quantitative easing monetary policy.

The best way to deal with uncertain market expectations is to pack up for safety and wait for opportunities to appear on the right side.

The global economy will continue to deteriorate. The rise of the stock market in China and the United States is due to slightly improved economic data, but this is only a false impression.

The US durable goods orders were better than expected in July. The US Department of Commerce announced that durable goods orders increased 4% from July to $201 billion 450 million in July, but orders for non defense capital goods excluding aircraft were reduced by 1.5%.

It can be seen that the order of durable goods in the United States goes to guns, not butter and bread, which is not a good omen.

Independent Congressional Budget Office 24 said that the US deficit reduction plan was more optimistic because of the decline in interest rates due to inflation, but the overall U.S. economy remained unchanged.

The HSBC PMI index, which reflects China's small and medium-sized enterprises, rebounded in the early August. However, it is too early to conclude that the Chinese economy has landed in a soft way. Judging from the classification indicators, the output of enterprises and new orders have all shrunk, and the shrinkage of output has slowed down.

Enterprises do not want to replenishment immediately after they go to stock, and inventory and finished products inventory continue to shrink. The delay of supplier delivery time is aggravated, which indicates that suppliers are uncertain about future prospects.

More importantly, the price of factory output and input continues to rise and accelerate.

Since the three quarter of last year, the improvement of US economic data has come to an end, and the capital money market has taken the roller coaster, which shows that quantitative easing monetary policy can not promote economic pformation, but only increases the volatility of capital and money market.

As long as the economy is in the black iron era, as long as the banknotes continue to depreciate, the tickets for the golden train will never be out of date.

Under the pressure of politics, the major central banks of the world are likely to maintain quantitative easing monetary policy, or to lower interest rates in a disguised form of buying bonds.

The ECB will no longer raise interest rates. Britain may launch the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy, and the US may launch the third round of quantitative easing monetary policy.

Even if it does not introduce quantitative easing monetary policy, the Federal Reserve will maintain its interest rate at zero by using the maturity assets to continue to buy bonds.

As early as December 2008, the Fed moved short-term interest rates to near zero levels.

As of June 2011, when the QE2 ended, the Fed injected $2 trillion and 300 billion into the economy.

In August 9th, the Fed renewed its commitment to maintain the zero interest rate policy until at least the end of 2013.

This shows that the hidden quantitative easing policy will not be terminated, and paper money is still not trustworthy.

While the price of gold fell, the price of treasury bonds fell at the same time, indicating a slight improvement in market risk aversion.

The 24 day index, the 10 year treasury bond price, dropped 1-7/32, and the yield rose 14 basis points, 2.30%, compared with 25 base points over the 60 year low.

The price of 30 - year bonds fell sharply, and the yield was 3.65%. It was 3.49% at the end of Tuesday, up 16 basis points.

Even if the price of gold and bonds fell, the former is still at a historical high, while the latter is at a historic low.

But the short-term fluctuation is only the market noise. When we put the current market in a long period of time and examine the current market with the monthly K line, it is not difficult to draw a relatively sober judgement on the real economy and the market.

The role of loose monetary policy in promoting the economy has been questioned more and more. But for the sake of votes, public support and loose interest, the loose monetary policy is still the only choice.

At the last moment when we hit the south wall, the sighted politicians could not have Roosevelt's new deal.

Gold has no light, because it is too dark around, giving golden light.