In The Past 4 Months, PMI Has Picked Up &Nbsp For The First Time; The New Export Order Has Fallen Below The Boom Line.

China logistics The purchasing Federation (CFLP) and HSBC both released the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of China in August. The two versions of the index show that China's economic growth is better than that of July.

Official data show that China's PMI in August was 50.9, up 0.2 percentage points from July, but the rate of recovery was not large, but it was the first upward trend in 4 months. Zhang Liqun, a CFLP special researcher, said the PMI index rose slightly, indicating that the economic rebound is gradually stabilizing.

After a new low in July, HSBC's PMI value for manufacturing in August also rose to 49.9 this month, only one step away from the 50 ups and downs.

Qu Hongbin, chief economist at HSBC China, said that in August, the PMI value of the manufacturing industry rose slightly from the initial value, which was close to the watershed of the boom and fall, while the output and employment index rebounded to above 50 for the first time in 3 months. These data indicate that China's economic growth will only slow down in the next few months, and there will be no hard landing.

It is worth noting that experts have pointed out that although PMI has picked up, there are still many uncertainties in economic growth, especially the downward trend in demand.

Risk of "hard landing" temporarily suspended

From the sub indices of PMI, the new export orders index, finished product inventory index, purchasing volume index, employee index and supplier delivery time index decreased in August, with a drop of more than 1 percentage points, and new exports. Order The index dropped more than 2 percentage points, the new order index was unchanged from last month, and the remaining indexes increased, with the backlog order index and raw material inventory index rising slightly more than 1 percentage points.

The official report of CFLP commented that, from the trend of the PMI index in the last two months, the decline in the previous month has narrowed sharply. This month's rebound has shown that after the adjustment of economic development in the first half of the year, the instability factor has obviously decreased, and the overall trend is developing towards stability.

Lu Ting, economist at the Bank of America and Merrill Lynch, said that although the announcement of PMI is not a surprise, it should be good for the market.

Lu Zheng commissar, chief economist of Societe Generale, told reporters that while the export orders were falling, the entire new order remained stable, indicating that domestic demand remained good. Economists have commented that China's economic growth rate of over 9% this year is not big.

Export demand is showing signs of downward trend.

Although PMI shows better overall, the August world Economics The effect of volatility on China's spanmission is still not underestimated. The most notable performance is the sharp decline in the new export orders index. In August, the new export orders index was only 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from last month, and fell to the bottom of the ups and downs line.

In a press release published on the website of the National Bureau of statistics, the index of export orders below the critical point indicates that foreign manufacturers' orders are decreasing and exports are facing challenges due to global commodity prices, debt crisis in developed countries and sluggish external demand.

PMI in Chicago dropped 2.3 to 56.6 in August, declining for two consecutive months. The initial value of manufacturing PMI in the euro area continued to slow in August to the first 49.72009 years in September. Beijing's leading international financial report says that since 2008, the world's major economies are still in a state of downward resonance.

People in Europe and the United States "tighten their pockets" have a significant impact on China's export enterprises. A commodity export oriented enterprise in Ningbo, Zhejiang, has recently been rejected by American customers.

Xiao Liu, head of the company's business, told the daily economic news that they received orders for about $80 thousand a while ago, of which $30 thousand had already been shipped, but because the US customers' purchase did not receive bank loans, and the sales volume of the inventory was poor, the other side could not afford to pay the sum. The remaining $50 thousand of the unshipped goods could only be refunded, and the other 30 thousand dollars had not been collected.

On the other hand, some analysts said that in addition to the low external demand in Europe and the United States, the continuous appreciation of the renminbi would weaken the competitive advantage of China's commodity prices, which could lead to the spanfer of orders from European and American countries to other regions with lower prices.

From the PMI industry composite index, in 20 industries, less than 50 of the number of industries has expanded, most of them are closely related to the international market, or more imports of raw materials, or more exports of finished products.

However, Li Miaoxian, a macroeconomic analyst at Bank of communications, believes that in the whole year, although the economic situation in Europe and the United States may deteriorate in the future, the export market will not be overly pessimistic. In view of the fact that the products of China's exports are mostly necessities, the possibility of a sharp decline in China's exports is unlikely if there is no serious recession in 2008.

Imported inflation is still hidden.

Another major impact of the world economic fluctuation on China is that imported inflation may deteriorate. In the case of a depressed dollar, the prices of raw materials such as oil will take a turn for the worse.

The official PMI purchase price index has continued to decline since March of this year, and the rate of decline in July has significantly narrowed, only 0.4 percentage points. In August, it rose 0.9 percentage points to 57.2.

The rebound in purchasing price index is mainly driven by the marked increase in purchasing prices of raw materials and energy. In August, the purchase price index of raw materials and energy returned to 60 above 61.9, up 4.3 percentage points from July.

The CFLP report suggests that, in line with the current world economic recovery, the easing of monetary policy tends to continue, especially in the case of the possibility that the United States will launch again and start QE3. China should consolidate the inflation control results and be vigilant against the rebound in commodity prices.