Global Manufacturing Activity Fell To Its Lowest Level In Two Years.

From the United States to Europe, to Asia, and to the whole world.

In recent years, the government has been cutting down on the economic outlook.

The US government announced on Thursday that it sharply lowered its growth forecast for the economy to 1.7% this year.

The Obama administration predicted in February that the economy would grow by 3.1% in 2011.

Singapore's prime minister Li Xianlong has warned Singapore to prepare for the two recession in the global economy.

At the end of the day, Dr. Roubini looked at the risk of returning to recession in advanced economies, which is even worse than the collapse of Lehman in 2008.

US Europe and Asia PMI collective fall

In September, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was released in some major economies in the US, the euro area and Asia. The latter is considered to be an important indicator for measuring the vitality of the manufacturing sector and even the whole economy.

Although the data of a few economies such as the United States are not as bad as expected, all countries

The latest report released on the 2 day showed that in August, India's PMI fell to 52.6 from 53.6 last month, declining for fourth consecutive months, reaching its lowest level in 29 months.

Data released the day before showed that the manufacturing sector PMI in the euro area fell to 49 in August, below the 50 decline line, indicating that Europe's manufacturing industry had shrunk for the first time in two years, while China's manufacturing PMI also lingered in the last 29 months.

The US manufacturing index in August slightly exceeded market expectations. The index fell to 50.6, but still remained above the expansion line.

The market was expected to be 48.5.

However, economists believe that the latest manufacturing data are just not expected, but they are still very weak.

At the same time, Sweden, Britain, South Korea and so on.

JP Morgan's global purchasing managers index, which was compiled in August, dropped from 50.7 in July to 50.1 in August. This shows that manufacturing industry has been in a difficult position after the strong expansion of the beginning of the year.

Analysts believe that although PMI may not be a perfect indicator of the health of the manufacturing sector and the overall economy, manufacturing output and order indices are generally low in both developed and emerging economies, which should indicate the weakness of global basic demand.

The risk of another recession in the second half of this year is increasing.

"Regrettably, there is little evidence that much of Asia is now free from the correlation with us and European growth."

Robert, an economist at Credit Suisse Asia, pointed out.

White House sharply cuts economic forecast

With each indicator pointing to another slide in the economy, official and private sectors are also constantly lowering their forecasts for economic growth.

On the 1 day, the White House Management and Budget Bureau released a report that sharply lowered the forecast for us economic growth this year.

According to the latest prediction by the agency, the US GDP growth rate this year may be only 1.7%, and the Obama administration predicted in February that the economy will grow by 3.1% in 2011.

The report shows that the US economy grew by only 0.7% in the first half of this year, the lowest growth rate since the US recession in June 2009.

The White House also predicts that the unemployment rate will average 9% in 2012, and the economic growth in the next few years will be slower than expected.

At present, the unemployment rate in the United States is 9.1%.

Civil institutions are also constantly lowering expectations.

In the past two weeks, the big Wall Street, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and other big banks have slashed economic expectations.

On Thursday, Commerzbank announced that it would lower its GDP growth forecast for the euro area and Germany in 2012.

German Commerzbank has cut the growth forecast for the euro area from 1.5% to 0.8% next year, saying that the basic economic data in a large number of regions are disappointing.

For Germany, the largest economy in the euro area, the bank expects that growth in Germany will fall to 1.5% in 2012, compared with 2%.

The bank said the situation in Germany was better than that in other euro zone countries, but it could not distance itself from the rest of the world.

The slowdown in manufacturing and overall economic growth has also led some to speculate that this may help curb inflation and encourage some central banks to adopt policies that are more conducive to economic growth.

Some of the central banks in Asia may have "basically completed the tightening of monetary policy", and India may be one of the few economies that may still raise interest rates.

He said the slowdown will ease the upward pressure on consumer prices in Asian countries.

Boozer J Ki, a senior European economist at Holland International Group, said that the latest batch of manufacturing data showed that the global economy is likely to slide again, and the central bank has been given high hopes.

But the question is, "is the central bank really willing to go the old way again?"

Boozer J Ki said.

Reappearance of Lehman tragedy

In the "doomsday doctor" Roubini, the central bank's further stimulus seems to be futile.

He believes that if the United States launched QE3, it may not achieve the desired effect.

"If the Federal Reserve starts QE3, the stock market may rebound initially, but unless the real economic data improves simultaneously, asset price rebound will not continue."

Roubini noted that last year, the Federal Reserve announced that the reason why QE2 started to drive the share price continued to rise was that the real economic data in the same period had been gradually improving.

Ruby is more pessimistic about the current economic situation.

He said the deterioration of the debt crisis could lead to a repeat of the Lehman incident. Most of the developed economies are at risk of recession.

"The situation is even worse than in 2008. Now we are under the pressure of fiscal tightening and banks have become more cautious."

Roubini predicted that the probability of another global recession will be as high as 60%.

It is worth mentioning that with the continuation of economic difficulties, more and more people have joined the pessimism.

Cohen, the governor of the European Central Bank and President of the Belgian central bank, warned on Friday that Europe's current tight liquidity and declining confidence are not as serious as Lehman brothers went bankrupt, but things are moving in that direction.

"The biggest problem in Europe at present is tight liquidity.

Banks once again become less confident, and the mood of credit crunch is heating up.

Although the situation is not as serious as it was in 2008 and 2009, it is developing to the worst. "

Cohen said.

Singapore's prime minister Li Xianlong said on Thursday night that the global economy is facing serious difficulties and risks of a two recession.

Li Xianlong warned that the global economy is facing two recession risks in the short term, and Singapore and other economies need to be prepared to deal with future turmoil.