The United States Was Eventually Replaced By China.

For debt, creditors can be like dictators. During the Suez Canal Crisis in 1956, the United States threatened to block the financing needed by the United Kingdom unless the latter withdrew from the Suez canal. Harold Macmillan, then British Chancellor of the exchequer, later recalled that this is the last gasp of a "declining power". "Maybe in 200 years, the United States will feel the pain of decline as we do."

　　 China Is the day over the United States approaching rapidly? This problem has not yet attracted enough attention in the United States. It still believes that the economic hegemony of the United States can not be seriously threatened. China may be becoming an economic superpower, but it is impossible to squeeze the United States into the top. However, such a view underestimates the possibility of China's economic hegemony in 20 years, and exposes a one-sided view of the United States: that is, the United States rather than China is the main factor in determining world hegemony.

Generally speaking, Economics The dominant position means that a country can use economic means to urge other countries to do what they want, or prevent them from doing what they do not want. The author believes that by 2030, the relative decline of the United States did not create a multipolar world, but a world dominated by China. Whether GDP or trade, China will be in a dominant position by 2030.

In 1956, Washington suspected of plotting a massive sell-off of pounds in New York, forcing the British government to withdraw troops from the Suez canal. It is rumoured that China intends to exercise financial power and sell some of its dollar reserves. To maintain confidence, the Fed raised interest rates sharply and sought help from oil exporting countries, but the old friendly dictators were replaced by stingy elected governments. The United States then turned to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). But this time, China has the dominant power. IMF's salvation has preconditions: the US Navy withdrew from the Western Pacific [7.88 -2.23% shares. This demand is painful, because China, as a major shareholder of IMF, can easily stop us financing requests.

Some people would say that this is just whimsical. After all, 1956 U.S.A It can easily cut off the economic lifeline of the UK because it has little impact on the US dollar or the US economy. But if China sells or stops buying US bonds, the dollar will fall and the renminbi will appreciate. This result is what China has been trying to avoid. However, similar views have not yet been taken into consideration that the motive of China in the future may be quite different. 10 years later, China may not be too keen to maintain its weakness.

Britain was in a weak position in the Suez canal crisis, not only because it was heavily indebted, but also because of another economic superpower. Today, the US economy is facing structural problems. Debt addiction has led to dependence on foreign countries, and growth prospects have been minimized. At the same time, a strong rival has emerged. Mcmillan predicted in 1971 that the United States might "decline in 200 years". But China may accelerate the process of history - making the United States far ahead of what Mcmillan predicted or even earlier than most people expected today.