Analysis Of Cotton Purchase And Storage Policy In 2011

Cotton prices began before September 1st.

In September 1st, the China cotton reserve management company officially started the implementation of the temporary storage and purchase plan. As of today, the market price of cotton has been successfully tested for two days.

Compared with previous years, the new flower collection and storage in 2011 has the following characteristics:

First,

Second, flexible and responsive.

As in 2008, the central storage cotton company announced the collection and storage points and quantities of each working day, and used the national cotton trading market's storage and storage system to confirm the paction.

But in the implementation process, many flexible methods were adopted: the daily price monitoring of the specialized information department, and the opening of the monitoring price to the public. Only when the price of the cotton market in the continuous five working days is lower than the temporary storage price, will the purchase and storage be started. In other words, once the price is higher than the storage price, the purchase and storage will be suspended. The central storage and storage company does not promise to store the quantity and the time to the reserve and reserve library, and adjust the collection and storage points and data of each day in time according to the needs. It only stipulates that the first batch reserve capacity is not less than 1 million tons.

Third, strictly regulate.

Processing and operation of the legal enterprise acquisition and storage are different, only those with 400 types of cotton processing qualification can participate in the storage and storage, and it is necessary to pass the joint qualification examination of the paction market and the central cotton storage company. The delivery enterprises must bear legal liability for the authenticity of the seed cotton purchase documents when delivery. If the paction is lower than the contract purchase price, the seed cotton will be listed in the industry blacklist; the cotton storage compliance requirements for the storage will be more meticulous. Compared with the previous storage, the proportion of the exposed cotton and the damaged cotton will be increased to the highest ratio; the liability for breach of contract should be clearly defined; once a breach occurs, all the deductions will be deducted at once; the storage and storage enterprises shall have a lifelong quality responsibility system for the storage and storage of cotton, and the corresponding economic and legal responsibilities should be borne when the warehouse is found out. There are more stringent requirements for storage and storage enterprises in the process of storage and purchase: facing all cotton acquisitions in 2008,

Fourth, speed up the prescription.

This year's reserve time is clearly defined in the time of the defect: real time the defect of the previous five working days, sixth working days do not meet the implementation of the standard, sixth working days do not meet the standard, the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation implemented implementation of the implementation of the implementation implemented the implementation of the implementation implemented the implementation of the implementation of the implementation implemented 4 implementation implemented within the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation implemented the implementation of the implementation of the implementation implemented the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation implemented within 4 implementation implementation within the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation within 4 implementing implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation of the implementation within 4 an open auction is charged against an advance payment.

Fifth, elasticity is wide and pricing is delayed.

本年度收儲與歷年最大的不同，在收儲的規模、范圍、價格和期限上：未規定明確的收儲量，而目前國儲棉總量極少（約22.7萬噸），為了穩定棉市，完全可能出現大規模收儲，這就意味著，年終總收儲量的彈性很大；歷年收儲主要面向新疆，今年實行內地到新疆的全國范圍收儲，收儲標準也有擴大，長度要求27毫米以上（含27毫米），比2004年、2008年收儲標準放寬了1毫米；為防止出現競拍交儲拉低市場價的現象，本次交儲按固定價19800元/噸實行，比2008年參考收儲價12600元/噸高了57%，但考慮到通脹導致的原料、土地、人工和運輸等成本的提高，加上與同期糧油的比價在合理范圍內，這個價格還是較為合理的；此外，相較以前分段限時收儲，本次收儲監測時間從今年9月1日延續到明年3月31日，有利于緩解

　　雖然今年收儲方案較往年有明顯改善，但仍存在較多風險因素：其一，交儲違約只用扣除違約金，并無其他處罰措施，違約金比重較2008年也有所下降（2008年違約金500元/噸，為參考收儲價12600元/噸的4.0%；2011年違約金300元/噸，為收儲價19800元/噸的1.5%），可能導致違約發生頻繁；其二，雖然結算流程加快，但交易需存放20萬保證金，且本次交儲單筆最小成交數量不僅較往年有明顯提高，比現貨交易單位也大了幾倍，對于新年度資金緊張的企業來講，并不利于資金利用；其三，按中儲棉規定的籽棉收購價和皮棉收儲價，算上賬期的資金成本、質量檢驗、皮棉損耗等不確定因素，交儲企業的利潤空間非常小，粗略計算不高于300400元/噸，這對企業的吸引力比較有限，除非市場價格低于收儲價較多，否則企業會更傾向于現貨銷售，實際收儲數量會大打折扣；其四，在交

In the process of seed cotton purchasing, the storage enterprises may reduce the phenomenon of grade turnover, and this year there is a new flower and high-yield expectation. Even if cotton farmers are reluctant to sell at the early stage of the new flower listing, they may eventually make passive pricing.

Strict risk factors such as cotton storage specifications, lifetime quality assurance, limited profits, large unit pactions, capital occupation, economic and legal responsibilities may make cotton enterprises selectively store the market price, and do not exclude the possibility of first trading and then default to spot sales.

Integrated into the overall market, if the market price is too low, cotton enterprises will choose to pay for storage, while close to the purchase price, cotton enterprises tend to spot sales, which means that the final price of lint will also be close to 19800 yuan / ton.

Judging from the current survey, cotton farmers have expectations for the purchase and storage price. A strong reluctance to sell may delay the timing of new flower listing, plus the long duration of storage and purchase, which is likely to cause the market to enter a stalemate for a long time.

Throughout the 2010, consumption changed little, but demand fluctuated greatly. The allusion to the market was the roller coaster price of cotton.

Only when consumption and demand are consistent, market expectations are rational and speculative elements will not be much, so the industry will be in a healthy and healthy production and consumption state.

Cotton is now returning to this state: entering the August, the fluctuation range of cotton prices has shrunk to the lowest level in nearly a year, and enquiries and pactions have gradually increased; futures have converged to the spot in recent months; the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices has been narrowing; the import price advantage of imported cotton has been highlighted; the import market has begun to recover; the difference between high and low grade cotton prices has dropped from historical highs, and the scarcity of high-grade cotton will also be improved along with the new flower listing; and the price difference between cotton and polyester has basically fallen back to the price of cotton before May 2010.

From this point of view, this country's purchase and storage is more stable cotton prices, and promote the industry's repair process.

Because there are still some problems such as high finished goods inventory, tight funds and uncertain orders in the current market, the repair process may be a long process, but with the improvement of supply and demand relationship, the industry will also develop effectively to a healthy and optimistic direction.