PTA Maintain Strong Oscillation Trend

PTA6 rebounded to 10208 at the beginning of the callback. When the head of the figure is broken, it will return to the neckline and the 9800 point will become the dividing line of the medium-term strength and weakness. The author believes that the uncertainty of PTA trend is increasing, and the overall oscillation is maintained. thinking The basic factors are clear.

Intensified macroeconomic turbulence

After the S & P downgraded the US debt rating, the industry's outlook on the US economy Expect Obviously pessimistic, major agencies have downgraded the US's economic growth prospects. In Europe, the European debt problem has not been able to find a reasonable solution. The European debt problem broke out regularly, causing cold winds to the market from time to time. The stability of the euro was further questioned, and rumors that Greece and other marginal countries might withdraw from the euro area began to emerge. European and American stock markets surged and plummeted, and crude oil rebounded powerless after a sharp fall. All these phenomena indicate that the current macro environment is extremely unstable, and the risk aversion dominates the flow of funds.

Domestically, the State Council and the central bank have reiterated the high CPI situation. Regulation Price is still the focus of current macroeconomic regulation, which means that the market expected that the monetary policy regulation will be relaxed in the second half of this year. The macro-control has been going on for 3 quarters since the beginning of 2011. From the 4 to 5 quarters of 2004 and two macroeconomic regulation in 2008, the possibility of short-term monetary policy turning is very small.

PX dominates PTA trend

The impact of crude oil on PTA is decreasing. Generally speaking, when the PTA industry chain changes greatly, the correlation of crude oil to PTA will decrease. This will be the case in the next two years. Crude oil rose from $80 to US $110 in the first half of this year, while PTA declined from 11000 yuan / ton to 9000 yuan / ton in the same period. In the second half of this year, PTA began to stabilize and recover, but crude oil dropped from high. This shows that the impact of crude oil on PTA is very limited.

In the second half of this year, CNOOC Huizhou PX project is closed down and Dalian. hoegaarden The relocation has completely changed the pattern of the PTA industry chain, plus Yisheng's 2 million 700 thousand tons of new capacity has been put into production, and the serious scissors gap on the PX supply has laid a strong position for PX. At present, Asia's PX has risen to between 1650 - 1700 US dollars / ton, while the Asian settlement price of the main PX production plant in September is set at 1655 US dollars, and the production cost of PTA also rises to around 9600 yuan / ton.

Although the capacity of PTA has been expanded, the supply of PTA is difficult to increase effectively from the supply of upstream PX, and the impact of increased supply is limited under the condition of stable downstream demand. From the current PTA industry chain profit margin structure, the profit level of PX and dacron is higher, and the profit level of PTA is reduced to less than 1000 yuan / ton. Under this structure, the driving force of PX on PTA will be stronger. That is to say, with the support of PX, there is no danger of a PTA crash.

Downstream polyester has a high degree of prosperity.

In the downstream recession, the cost driven growth is unsustainable. For PTA, the best profit or the good demand for downstream is that the profit level of polyester filament and staple in the second half of this year has remained at a high level for a long time. The gross profit of more than 2000 yuan per ton has lasted for a long time. Polyester manufacturers have good production and marketing, almost no inventory backlog, and the demand for PTA is basically rigid. Good demand is the biggest driving force for promoting the recovery of PTA in the early stage.

The prosperity of the industrial chain is limited to polyester, downstream fabric factory. profit Low level, the backlog of products has become a serious drag on PTA's further strength. Although the production and sale of polyester products are good and the short-term demand of PTA is guaranteed, the continuity of the market is still worth vigilance if the latter road is not effectively opened.

The substitution effect of polyester cotton is weakening.

The good performance of polyester is attributed to the substitution of polyester and cotton. Last year, due to the soaring cotton prices, the difference between cotton and polyester was once raised to 15000 yuan / ton. In this case, the polyester and cotton substitution was obvious. The textile factory significantly increased the use of polyester staple fiber. According to the statistics of chemical fiber information network, the operation rate of staple fiber increased by 25 percentage points. According to the estimation of short fiber production capacity, the use of short fiber increased by 801 million 200 thousand tons. In recent years, with the sharp fall in cotton prices and short staple performance, the price difference between polyester and cotton has returned to around 7000 yuan / ton, the price difference has returned to a relatively reasonable range, and the substitution effect of short fiber on cotton will decrease.

At present, the health of PTA industry chain is healthy, and the profit level of each link is relatively reasonable. This supports PTA to maintain a relatively strong trend. However, when the macro instability increases and the substitution effect of polyester cotton becomes weaker, the strength of PTA will weaken, and the probability of maintaining strong oscillation will be larger.