Cotton Purchase And Storage Encounter Cotton Price Game

Two thousand and eleven cotton Since the beginning of the year, the cotton price in the domestic market has been lower than the 19 thousand and 800 yuan / ton cotton temporary purchase and storage price announced by the state for 5 consecutive working days.

The Ministry of economic and trade affairs and the Ministry of finance of the NDRC issued a notice on the initiation of the temporary cotton purchase and storage plan for 2011 in 7, and decided to start the temporary storage and purchase of cotton in 2011 from the 8 th. 7, the central storage cotton management company also issued a notice to all cotton enterprises. It said that the temporary storage and purchase of cotton in 2011 would not be restricted by quantity, and it would be open to storage.

But according to the Economic Herald reporter, 19 thousand and 800 yuan / ton. Price To cotton growers, it turned into 18 thousand yuan / ton, equivalent to 4.1 yuan / Jin - 4.2 yuan / jin of seed cotton, and it couldn't keep up with the cost of planting cotton farmers. Cotton farmers clearly stated that "no more than 4.5 yuan / kg will not be sold".

Game cotton price: 4.3 yuan / Jin

"19 thousand and 800 yuan / ton is the price of lint, and cotton growers are all seed cotton. The intermediate link needs cotton processing plants, cotton merchants and storage and storage enterprises to join. The biggest beneficiary of this chain is the processing plant." on the morning of 8, Liu Jinkai, director of the cotton production office of Changyi City, Shandong, told the reporter that "the process of storing and storing is cotton processing plant or its cotton merchants. Cotton growers bought cotton seeds, processed them into lint and sold them to the storage and storage enterprises at the cost of storage and storage, and then hoarding enterprises to hoard up for national demand. So, at the cotton growers, the price is at most 18 thousand yuan / ton, equivalent to 4.1 yuan / Jin - 4.2 yuan / jin of seed cotton.

Liu Jinkai revealed that there were several large cotton farmers who made clear to him that "the price of less than 4.5 yuan per catty cotton will not be sold." According to Liu Toulu, Weifang's new cotton is growing well this year. yield Or higher than another cotton producing city in Shandong, Dezhou.

Jiang Yongjun, a cotton grower in Changyi who has 10 years' experience in planting cotton, calculated an account to the guide reporter: the rent area is 500 yuan / mu a year, sowing 100 yuan / mu, fertilizer 160 yuan / mu, pesticide 200 yuan / mu, management labor 320 yuan / mu, pick flowers 450 yuan / mu, total 1730 yuan / mu. According to the yield of 420 kg per mu, the cost of seed cotton is as high as 4.12 yuan / Jin, while the country's purchase and storage price is 19 thousand and 800 yuan / ton, which is equivalent to 4.5 yuan / jin of seed cotton.

"Cotton farmers can't sell high prices of 4.5 yuan / Jin. As a result, the processing plant basically does not make money. Sun Liwu, an information cotton analyst at Zhuo Chuang, told the reporter that we expect the price of 4.3 yuan / Jin should be the best price for cotton farmers and processing plants.

However, according to the price of 4.3 yuan / Jin, Jiang Yongjun only earns 75.6 yuan per mu, and the 200 mu cotton field he owns has only earned 15 thousand yuan a year. However, at present, the price of new cotton in Changyi is only about 4.1 yuan / kg, and he owns a net loss of 1680 yuan in 200 acres of cotton field.

Tangled 19 thousand and 800 yuan / ton

In this case, the 19 thousand and 800 yuan / ton storage price is slightly lower? In Liu Jinkai's view, the price is lower. "In fact, cotton price and grain price should be 1: 8, but now the grain is mechanized and the labor cost is much lower, and cotton is still manual labor, and the reasonable proportion should be adjusted to 1: 10." Liu Jinkai said, but now, the grain price is 1 yuan per catty, and the cotton price is only 4 yuan per catty, not to mention 1: 10, even 1:8 is far behind.

Although the purchase and storage price is slightly lower, it can not be further raised from the whole industry chain. Sun Liwu believes that now the whole downstream business downturn, demand can not pull up, if the cotton price increases, the cost of textile and clothing enterprises will be higher.

Insiders say that textile enterprises are not afraid of high cotton prices, and are afraid that cotton prices will be unstable. As long as cotton prices stabilize, the textile industry will recover.

"At the end of last year, some textile companies hoarding a lot of high priced cotton could only digest themselves, and could not digest their products." Sun Liwu said that the fear of spinning enterprises is the sharp rise and fall of cotton prices.

In fact, the cotton price in China has experienced a "roller coaster" market in the cotton year of 2010/2011. Less than two and a half months from last September to early November, cotton prices rose more than 67%, becoming the "vane" of the bull market of 14.21,0.18,1.28%. Cotton prices climbed to a record high of 30 thousand yuan per ton in February this year, and cotton spot and futures prices began to fall all the way until they fell to the lowest storage price. In June and July this year, Shandong, Dezhou, Changyi and other places, six or seven of the textile enterprises to suspend production or limit production and self insurance.

Cotton price rise depends on demand.

The purchase and storage policy will undoubtedly play a stabilizing role in the current weak market. On the 7 day, Zheng cotton futures showed a steady trend after adjusting for two consecutive trading days. The main 1205 contract was closed at 21710 yuan / ton, up 160 yuan / ton. Cotton prices in the spot market also rebounded slightly after entering September, and the latest 3 cotton lint prices in some areas were over 20 thousand yuan / ton.

7, the central storage cotton management company wrote on the website of the State Council's SASAC website. With the beginning of the new cotton year in September, the domestic cotton market confidence was further restored by the temporary cotton purchase and storage policy, and the downstream demand was slightly improved. The spot market was active, and domestic cotton prices continued to rise slightly.

However, most people in the market still have doubts about whether the effect of purchasing and storing policies can be immediate and the market will pick up in the short term. "It is estimated that cotton prices will not increase significantly in the short term." Liu Jinkai believes that there is a buffer period downstream, supporting effect may begin to appear in early October.

The real recovery of cotton prices will depend on the demand of the terminal. Most of China's cotton textile products are exported abroad, but now the global economy is not optimistic, the appreciation of the renminbi, the increase in labor costs, Europe and the United States debt problems plaguing the global economy, export resistance and so on, or will continue to affect the market. Sun Liwu said that in the face of such a situation, textile enterprises should speed up industrial upgrading.
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