Mao Shuchun: Cotton Growth And Yield Analysis This Year

In September 15th, at the national cotton situation analysis conference held by the China Cotton Association, Mao Shuchun, a researcher at the Cotton Research Institute of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, introduced cotton growth, output and cost.

Cotton growth and yield forecast

1.

2, the total production increment has decreased.

First, the opening is good, the Yangtze River is poor because of drought.

Two is the constant improvement of the Miao.

Due to the "dry and hot" characteristics of the preceding and middle period, although the drought dominated disasters are more important, the growth is better.

According to the monitoring, the average cotton growth index (CCGI) in China was 121 in 5-8 months, indicating that the growth rate was better than 20% over the same period last year, which is better than that in the whole year. 8%.

Three, since September, the temperature of the mainland has decreased, the rainy days are more, the illumination is less, the autumn peach is less, the rotten bells are higher than expected, and the unit production increment has decreased.

It is estimated that the total output will be 7 million tons, and its increment will be reduced by 100 thousand tons over the middle of August.

3, the three major basins are not the same.

The Yangtze River Basin: the trend of increasing production is weakened, and the latter weather also has an impact on output.

The basin is growing better than nearly 20% in the same period last year.

In 5-6 months, droughts and floods began to turn sharply, and drought and waterlogging occurred in 7-8 months. After the late August, the temperature and rain continued for more than 20 days. The upper part dropped more and the bell became less. But the lower part had fewer rotten bells, and the area of premature senescence was small. In early September, it was mainly cloudy, but less rainfall.

The Yellow River basin: the yield per unit area increased slightly.

Growth is better than last year's more than 10%.

In the first half of the 20th century, the weather was stable, growing steadily, and the momentum of increasing production was strong.

However, since September, the unit yield has increased slightly since the low temperature and rainy days.

Northwest inland: harvest and high yield.

Growth is better than last year's more than 30%.

The weather is stable and robust in the first half.

According to the survey in late August, 100 thousand acres of land in Xinjiang have been springing up, and the yield per unit area may be refreshed again.

Although in late August, it experienced a brief low temperature and rainy weather, but it soon improved. Due to the normal temperature in the early and early September, its output was mostly finalized and the harvest was basically decided.

Two, implement the policy of temporary collection and storage, and fulfill the promise of open acquisition.

(1) the temporary storage and storage price increases greatly.

This year, the purchasing and storage price increased by 7200 yuan / ton compared with 12600 yuan / ton in 2008, an increase of 57.1% yuan, a deduction of 1000 yuan / ton processing and pportation fee and a 49.2% increase in price. This shows that the state attaches great importance to cotton, strives to ensure that the income of cotton farmers does not decrease, and promotes the stability of cotton production. It also takes into account the factors of cost rise.

(two) start the temporary acquisition in a timely manner and strengthen supervision.

1, start the temporary purchase and storage in a timely manner.

Storage and purchase has been launched in September 8th.

2, publicity, supervision and implementation of good policies.

3, expand the temporary storage capacity.

Three. Calculation of cost, output value and income.

According to the price of 18800 yuan / ton, the price of seed cotton is 8.8 yuan / kg, which is 19.6% less than the price of 10.94 yuan per kilogram last year. The output value of the main product is reduced by one percentage point. Due to the sharp rise in cost, the three largest production area is expected to reduce two to 40%, and its reduction is also related to the unit size and grade.

(1) material and labour costs continue to rise.

The rising cost of cotton planting has long been unacceptable, and labor costs have not been anticipated.

It is estimated that the annual cost will increase by at least 202.1 yuan per mu, or up by 14%, pushing up the cost of lint cotton by 2377.6 yuan / ton, that is, increasing 12.6% on the basis of 18800 yuan / ton. Only in this way can the reasonable price of new cotton be between 2.1 to 22 thousand yuan / ton, and this price can keep cotton planting income from decreasing.

By early September, the output of North Xinjiang was basically finalized.

According to the inspection and household monitoring in late August, according to 18800 yuan / ton, the purchase price of new cotton decreased by 17.7% from 1.56 yuan to 8.8 yuan / kg, and seed cotton production increased 16.7% to 44.3 kg to 309.3 kg / mu, and the output value decreased 0.9% from 24 yuan to 2721.4 yuan / mu, and the cost rose by 17.4% yuan to 2721.4 yuan / mu.

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Four, new cotton price outlook

Comprehensive analysis shows that temporary storage, cost rise and inflation have the greatest impact on the price of new cotton.

First, the temporary purchase and storage price will play a supporting role in the market, and the price of new cotton will go steadily.

Two, driven by rising costs and inflation, prices are likely to fluctuate upward and upward. Perhaps the price of new cotton will return to a reasonable range.

In addition, if commercial banks enter capital acquisition, the market price will also rise.

Five, optimistic about the national gate

In view of this year's cotton harvest and consumption weakness, it is suggested that the quota outside the quota should not be added; even if the quota is added, the tariff rate outside the quota can not be reduced to 5%.