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Yao Jingyuan: China Should Pay More Attention To The Risk Of Economic Growth Decline.

2011/9/20 16:41:00 60

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Export Of Yao Jingyuan In 12Th Five-Year

Yao Jingyuan, the former chief economist of the National Bureau of statistics, pointed out that at the fourth China nonferrous metal spot futures interactive summit in September 17th, at the same time, China should prevent the economic growth from overheating and at the same time pay more attention to the downside risk of economic growth.

Yao Jingyuan said that as the opening year of the "12th Five-Year plan", all provinces and cities and regions have been investing vigorously this year, and at the same time, pulling the "three carriages" of China's economic growth, such as investment, consumption and export, have encountered new problems since the second half of last year.

"Investment projects have seen negative growth; exports are facing rising production costs and external Renminbi.

Exchange rate appreciation

The dual dilemma.

In terms of consumption, automobile industry and real estate as a driving demand for China's huge consumption in the past 10 years have been regulated by China's policy level.

Taking cars as an example, in December last year, the country's vehicle output was 63 thousand units / days, and by June this year it had been reduced to 50 thousand units / day.

The impact of policy regulation on the real estate market is more obvious.

Yao Jingyuan said that the whole country

economic growth

The pace has dropped from 9.7% in the first quarter of this year to 9.5% in the two quarter, and the national industrial growth rate has dropped from 14.4% in the first quarter to 14% in the two quarter, while export growth has dropped from 26.4% in the first quarter to 22% in the two quarter.

Yao Jingyuan believes that China's economic growth slowed down and began to fall. An important reason is the result of the active regulation of the Chinese government, and the growth of economic growth from the previous policy stimulus to endogenous growth. He thinks this is a good performance and is a return to normal.

This will also help to make the price situation more reasonable.

Yao Jingyuan said that China is currently facing

Economics

The current situation is the result of the negative effects of monetary easing in 2008.

In 2008, China's real economy suffered heavy losses due to the US sub debt crisis.

"15% enterprises closed down and closed down, 20% enterprises were forced to cut production and tens of millions of people were unemployed." under the circumstances of people's livelihood and social stability, Yao Jingyuan thought that loose monetary policy was a correct move. Today's Chinese economic situation is a "medicine supplement and side effect". Although the situation is complex, there are risks and uncertainties, but because of the active regulation of the government, there will be no two economic exploration.