Pork Prices Skyrocketed And Plunged &Nbsp; Experts Say The Second Half Is Unlikely To Float.

Why pork prices skyrocketed

First, why pork prices skyrocketed and plummeted?

Half an hour (micro-blog) pays attention to pork prices.

In the first half of this year, the price index remained high. According to the statistics department, the important factor of pushing up CPI was the excessive rise in pork prices.

In June, reporters went to Shandong, Jilin and other pig raising provinces, and investigated many reasons for the rise in pork prices.

At that time, if pork farmers were to fill in the hurdle, the price of pork should be stable.

Liu Shuzhen is an ordinary retired worker living in Taiping East Li District, Fengtai District, Beijing. A family of five lives in a room less than fifty square meters. Although life is not rich, the daily expenses can still be basically maintained.

Usually the family dishes are bought by Aunt Liu, so she pays close attention to the market price every day.

Aunt Liu complained that the price of pork had gone up a lot. Last year it was only six or seven yuan a kilogram, and now it rose to seventeen yuan eight yuan.

Early in the morning, Liu Ayi went to a nearby supermarket to buy meat.

She was pleased to find that the pork sold for 17-18 yuan at the usual time was only 15 yuan, and the price of pork ribs and meat stuffing was also favorable.

After thinking about it, Aunt Liu decided to buy one for each.

But when it was time to check out, she discussed with her daughter, considering the economic situation at home, and chose the better one.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, the total consumer price level rose by 6.2% in 2011 August.

Among them, pork prices rose 45.5%, July data show that pork prices rose by 56.7%, so the price of pork in August narrowed by nearly 10 percentage points.

Liu Shuzhen told reporters that the meat and fat that were thrown away will now become meat paste.

Besides, Aunt Liu also divided lean meat into eight pieces, and even stipulated the amount of meat eaten by everyone at home every day.

Beijing Great Ocean Road pork wholesale market is the first large-scale pork wholesale market in Beijing, although it is night, but wholesale traders are in an endless stream. The director of the wholesale hall, master Tong, told reporters that there are several fixed pork sales agents here every night, selling thousands of pork every night, sales have been very stable, but since June this year, he obviously felt the pressure.

According to Tong Xueming, director, the sale of pork was more than one hundred twenty two thirty a day last year.

Master Tong told reporters that the cost of raising pigs is generally high this year.

Tong Xueming, master Tong, said that a 9.6 kilogram catty of the pig was bought from the farm and pported to the slaughterhouse and pported to the wholesale market. The cost is too high.

Xiao Feiqiu has been selling pork for more than 5 years, and at the same time three families sell pork at the next pork stand.

He told reporters that he managed to sell seventeen or eight pigs a day last year, and this year he managed to make up to ten.

Not only that, the reporter also learned in the interview that as the price of pork continues to rise, the profits of agents suddenly drop, or even lose money.

Pork agency, pan auntie, said that pork prices rose too much this year, up more than half of last year.

Pan aunt told reporters that on the same day, for example, the pork price of the Dahongmen pork factory she represented was 24 yuan a kilogram, and if the wholesale market price was less than 24 yuan, she would have to sell it at a loss. If the pork was not sold, the loss would be even greater.

Beijing has been running the pork business for more than 10 years, but recently, many people have switched to selling pork because they do not make money.

One of them told reporters that they wanted to find a butcher stall in the vegetable market, but now the market is basically selling all the stalls.

Master Hu said, now small shops, small restaurants do not use pork, and chicken cook, chicken only 6 yuan, 7 yuan.

Market workers told reporters that in the past, the market had less than 1200 pactions a day, and more than 1700.

However, pork prices continued to rise this year, compared with January in July, the average number of pork coming into the field one day was reduced by an average of 454.

Master Tong Xueming said that 6, 7 and 8 were the least in three months, and less than one thousand at least one day in July, only 990.

Two, * the price of pork is rising, but farmers dare not rush.

The latest statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics on 15 * showed that in the first ten days of September, the average price of the 29 main food products in 50 cities increased by 1.255%, with pork prices rising 0.8%, rising for four consecutive months, and no expected price was stable.

Pork prices remain high, whether consumers or all sectors of the pork sales chain are struggling. What exactly is the reason for the rising price of pork?

Lishu County, Jilin is a famous pig raising County in the country.

Li Chengxi, who lives in four village of Bai Shan township, began raising pigs as early as 1987.

In 2004, he built the first * 100 pig house in the village.

However, it has been the first time that pigs have been raised for more than 20 years * a good market this year.

Over the past 20 years, Li Chengxi earned the most in 2007, when the purchase price of live pigs reached 8.7 yuan, and * * counted four hundred or five hundred yuan per pig.

This year, Li Chengxi said, a pig will earn $1000 or eight hundred yuan.

Not only has the pig raised hundreds of profits this year, but prices have not been loosened since May 1.

Li Chengxi, the four village of Baishan Township, said the duration was longer.

This situation lasted only two or three months in 2007.

So what is the reason that this year's hog prices have been running high?

Wang Lixian, director of the Pig Breeding Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, told reporters that the supply and demand were mainly related to the supply and demand of pigs. On the one hand, it was scattered households, and farmers gradually withdrew from the farms.

Another main reason is that the survival rate of piglets is too low, so the effective supply will be relatively reduced.

Through the information of China Animal Husbandry Association, we can see that from the end of 2007, the price of live pigs has entered a new round of cycle. A notable feature of this cycle is the magnitude of price fluctuation.

In April 2008, the price of live pigs reached 16.87 yuan / kg, and then began to drop sharply. In May 2009, it fell to 9.24 yuan per kilogram.

When Li Chengxi was slaughtered in April 2010, the price dropped to 9.53 yuan per kilogram.

In this year, Li Chengxi, who had raised pigs for more than 20 years, first met Waterloo.

Li Chengxi, the village of four villages in Baishan Township, said helplessly that if the cost of 4.5 yuan a Jin, the 100 pigs were estimated to have lost 20 thousand yuan.

Seeing that the market is not good, Li Chengxi reduced the pigs in the pig pen from 100 to 6 or 70. He said that the more we raised, the more we lost.

In recent years, because of the ups and downs of the pork market, Li Chengxi lost more than one person.

In another village, Chen Lijun's history of raising pigs has also been 10 years, and has remained at 5 or 60 years.

However, the sharp fluctuation of pig prices in 2009 left a shadow in his mind.

Chen Lijun said that in 2009, the more he raised, the more he lost. He raised 60 pigs and lost twenty thousand yuan that time.

From the end of last year, hog prices began to rise steadily. After May 1 this year, the price rose from 14 yuan per kilogram to 20 yuan at the peak.

But the pigs in Chen Lijun's pig pen were reduced by more than a half.

Chen Lijun told reporters that he only kept 7 sows and 12 little pigs this year.

The funds are not abundant, the capital is too heavy, and the market is not well controlled.

Chen Lijun said the main cost of raising pigs is the cost of feed and piglets.

This year, with the rise of pig market, the cost of raising pigs has also risen.

So these two costs have reached the highest level in history.

Li Chengxi also said that piglets last year were about 300 yuan a kilogram. When the price of piglets was the cheapest in spring this year, it was only 260 yuan or 270 yuan. Now the price of piglets has risen to 500 yuan a Jin.

Many farmers in the village are self propagating, and the price of feed is higher than the price of piglets.

In pig feed, corn accounts for 70% to 80%. Therefore, the key factor determining the feed cost is the price of corn.

Li Chengxi told reporters that the highest grain price last year was only 1.15 yuan, and 8 yuan and 0.95 yuan were sent to in September. The first two days he spent 1.28 yuan on grain purchases.

Feeding a 250 kg weight of pigs requires about 600 Jin of corn, and corn price increases by 10 Fen each means that the cost of farming is 60 yuan.

In order to understand the current price of corn, the reporter visited the food trading market in Lishu County.

A villager told reporters that the current corn is 1.27 yuan a Jin, two weeks ago or 1.15 yuan a Jin.

Grain traders also say that grain prices have risen by at least 10 Fen.

Li Huizhi is the head of the Agricultural Station in Wanfa Town, Lishu County, Jilin. After more than 10 years of corn acquisition, he told reporters that the current price of Chen corn is the highest point in the local history.

Li Huizhi said that last year when the grain was released, it basically did not exceed 1.23 yuan, and this year when the grain was released, it had reached 1.26 - 1.3 yuan.

At the same time, the price of corn has reached the highest point in history, and the international grain price is also facing increasing pressure.

Reuters financial commentator Kang Wei said that the flood in the eastern part of the United States and the central and western regions has been constantly affected, and the planting season has been seriously affected.

In addition, corn crops are also affected by the rare historical hot weather.

Therefore, the growing season of crops is facing severe challenges.

This has pushed the world's grain prices higher.

In order to get more detailed information about corn prices, they interviewed Bill Rafite, a risk management analyst and New York pomson futures broker.

Bill Rafite, a risk management analyst and Peng Sen futures broker in New York, said this year the situation is very bad.

Floods occurred in the central and western parts of the country, where many crops failed and crop growth was bad.

At first it was very humid and then dry.

Extreme drought in these key areas, namely pollination areas and crop growing areas, will have a great impact on the final output.

Reuters financial commentator Kang Wei said that the world's main crops such as soybeans, wheat, corn and other storage are relatively tight, analysts believe that this will push prices further higher.

Following is the view of analyst Bill Rafite:

According to the overall situation, grain production in one or two years is expected to gradually decrease.

The storage volume is very tight. Even if Argentina and Ukraine have higher corn yields next year, the total demand is still high.

This is the season for corn to be harvested. So what is the price of new grain this year compared with last year? With this question, the reporter visited Song Jia village, Wanfa Town, Lishu County.

Wang built ten acres of corn in the family, sold 10 tons of grain last year at a price of 8 gross, and now the corn in the field is about to mature, and it can be sold in the market in more than a month after harvest.

Wang Jian said that corn could be collected around October 1st, when the lowest price of wet food exceeded $1.

Less than one yuan can not sell, now everything is very expensive.

Although the output of corn in Lishu County is higher than that of last year, the cost of seed, fertilizer and labor is also rising.

In addition, the demand for corn is also increasing, so villagers generally favor this year's corn prices.

Li Huizhi, director of Agricultural Station in Wanfa Town, Lishu County, told reporters that the price of corn will go up this year, because farming and industry are competing for grain. It is estimated that before the Spring Festival, it will probably reach about one yuan or so.

According to the price of corn and other feed formula, the cost of preparing a pound of pig feed costs about 1.5 yuan. According to the ratio of 1:3, raising a 250 kilogram of fat pig needs 750 catties, the cost is 1125 yuan, and the price of piglets is 500 yuan, so the total cost is at least 1625 yuan, which is not artificial and epidemic prevention. This means that the purchase price of live pigs should reach at least 6.5 yuan per kilogram.

The purchase price will reach 8 yuan to ensure that each pig has a profit of more than 300 yuan.

Liu Fenghua, director of the * * Animal Husbandry Bureau of Lishu County, Jilin, said that if the profit of every pig is less than 300 yuan, the people may not invest in the pig industry.

Since June this year, the price of live pig has been breaking through 9 yuan per Jin, and it is still at * 9 yuan level.

However, compared with previous years, farmers now appear more rational, and the amount of subsidy has not risen substantially.

Wang Lixian, director of the pig Research Office of the animal husbandry and Veterinary Research Institute of China Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said that 20072008 years of pig raising industry is profitable, many industries are involved in pig industry, many fields are also filling the hurdles, and the scale of pig raising is expanding, so this time there is not a large number of this phenomenon, and now the farmers are very rational, when the price is high, it is not like the previous patch.

In the west white mountain village, Baishan Township, Lishu County, where Chen Lijun is located, although this year's pig market is the best year, many people still do not fill up the fence.

Before 2009, four families on both sides of the road were all pig raising, but now they have gone to the air.

In the past two years, the wages of migrant workers have gradually risen. At present, the daily income of the laborers in Jilin can reach 100 yuan, and if they are carpentry and other handicrafts, their incomes will have to turn over one or two times. This has led many farmers to choose to give up pig farming and do odd jobs in the slack season.

Wei Shan, a villager in the village of Baishan, Baishan County, Lishu County, said that there was no risk in working, but the feed and cost of raising pigs increased and the risk was great.

Chen Lijun used to grow rich by raising pigs. Now he has reduced the size of live pigs from 60 to 20.

The workers can earn thirty thousand yuan a year.

Three, experts believe that the possibility of downward float of pork prices is very small in the second half of the year.

On the one hand, the cost of raising pigs has been rising. Even in the face of this year's surging market, many pig farmers are afraid to act reckless and increase the number of farms. The price of pork has surged and plunged for many years, so that some farmers prefer to go out to work and do not want to risk raising pigs.

Will there be a steady trend in pork prices in the second half of the year when the contradiction between supply and demand has not been fundamentally alleviated?

Wei village of Baishan Township, Lishui County, Lishui County, began to raise pigs from 2002 to 100. At the end of 2007 and the first half of 2008, it caught up with the peak period of pig prices, and each pig made eight hundred or nine hundred yuan.

However, since then, the market has been ups and downs.

But unlike Chen Lijun, after this year's pig market has improved, Wei Jing has resumed his old business and raised more than ninety dozen pigs. In a month, the pigs will be sold on the market.

Wei Jing told reporters that the pigs were raised from May 1, because the pig market was high.

Feeling right, this year's market is quite stable.

Many farmers have begun to expand the scale of aquaculture.

Wang Shuqin's family used to feed more than a dozen pigs. Seeing that this year's market is good, the family has brought out ten thousand yuan to enlarge the scale of the pig farm to 50. Now the new pigsty has been repaired, and it will begin to fill up the hurdle soon.

The pigpen in Li Chengxi's house was half empty last year, and now it is full of circles. At present, there are 160 live pigs.

Although this year's pig raising costs are relatively high, but for these farmers, as long as there is profit margins, will continue to develop their own pig raising business.

Li Chengxi said he felt that pigs could not always pay, and they could not always earn.

In the meantime, retail farms are developing step by step.

This year, the central government supports the investment of large scale standardized breeding farms and residential areas to 2 billion 500 million yuan, giving subsidies to farmers (farms) according to the standard of 100 yuan per head for breeding sows.

At present, large-scale farming in Lishu County is developing gradually.

Dong Tiecheng was a large farmer in Laoshan village, Bai Shan township. In 2008, he helped to build a breeding farm by relatives and friends. In April this year, the scale of the farm was expanded again. The number of bars was 600. Next year, a new pig house will be built on the open space.

Dong Tiecheng, Laoshan village, Bai Shan township, said that four buildings will be covered next year.

There are one thousand and one hundred posts.

According to the information released by the Ministry of agriculture, the total number of pig farms in August was 465 million 570 thousand, an increase of 1.01% over the same period last year, with a growth rate of 0.9%.

Among them, 48 million 150 thousand sows were sown, an increase of 5.13% compared with the same period last year, and the growth rate was 0.6%.

Wang Lixian, director of Pig Breeding Research Institute of animal husbandry and Veterinary Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, will have a slight fluctuation by the end of the year, but it will not be too big.

In winter, it is the peak period of consumption. Although the supply will increase a bit, consumption will increase, so judging from the price will not be very great.

Wang Lixian believes that pig prices will fall after the Spring Festival, but the possibility of a sharp fall will be very small.

Wang Lixian said that if a commodity pig does not earn 300 yuan, then everyone will not have enthusiasm to raise, because it has an input cost inside, even if the pig price will fall down in the future, it will not return to the previous level, and now many farmers also know that there is a certain risk in filling the hurdles at rush hour. So though the patch is increasing, there is not much increase, and there will not be a sharp decline in the price in 2009.

Half an hour observation: fundamentally solve the disorder of pig breeding

The rise or fall of pork prices is not a complicated matter. The supply is large and the price falls naturally. On the contrary, the price is rising.

In the past 15 years, there have been at least 5 cycles of boom and bust.

In all 14.40,0.00,0.00%, including aquaculture, we can not help asking why not rice, why is it not such a sharp rise and fall of chicken?

What is the reason behind this?

After almost every pork price slump, there will be national regulation, such as increasing farmers' subsidies and launching state acquisitions.

However, these measures have not fundamentally solved the disorder of pig breeding.

Market risk is always borne by farmers who are least able to resist risks.

Even if pork prices are steady or even down this time, we have reason to believe that pork prices will rise again in the near future.

It is hoped that the price of pork will remain stable, which is not only a strong demand of consumers, but also an important guarantee for the protection of pig industry.