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The Yuan Will Continue To Appreciate &Nbsp Against The Euro, Or Will Affect Hebei'S Exports.

2011/9/27 10:45:00 29

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The European debt crisis, which began last year, has been spreading and fermented into a field.

Confidence crisis

From Greece, Ireland and Portugal to today's precarious Italy, from the sovereign debt crisis to the banking crisis, the European debt crisis has been spreading and escalating, triggering a tumbling of confidence in the global financial market, which is unpromising for the euro, which has fallen to its lowest level in 8 months.

Forecast

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"We have just adapted to the appreciation of the dollar, and now we appreciate the euro again. We feel very stressed."

In September 22nd, the central parity of RMB against the euro was 8.6533, setting a new high of RMB against the euro in the past two years.

As Hebei's largest trading partner, the renminbi's appreciation of the euro has brought more pressure to Hebei's exports, which are slightly recovering.

The latest data of China's foreign exchange trading center on 22 may show that after RMB's breakthroughs of 9 against the euro's central parity at the beginning of this month, the RMB's high price of 8.6533 against the euro was 22, creating a new high in the past two years.

In recent years, the RMB exchange rate against the euro has continued to rise, especially in the past two weeks, the intermediate price appreciation has exceeded 3000 basis points.

As China's largest trading partner, the first largest export market, the largest technology import source and the second largest import market, if the European debt crisis continues to deteriorate, the accelerated pace of RMB appreciation will have a greater negative impact on China's exports.

Specifically, to Hebei, according to Shijiazhuang customs statistics, the EU has been the largest trading partner of our province. In the 1-8 month of this year, our province increased its imports and exports by 6 billion 450 million US dollars, an increase of 20.9%.

In 2009 -2010, due to the continued appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, some export enterprises which were mainly trading partners in the Hebei province suffered huge losses.

exchange rate

Losses.

Zhang Ruiqian, manager of a clothing trade enterprise in Shijiazhuang, told reporters that for textile and clothing foreign trade enterprises, raw materials and exchange rate are two important factors that affect profits.

In terms of exchange rate, it usually takes two months from customer enquiry to company quotation, deposit in place and then to the factory. If the exchange rate changes too fast, foreign trade companies will suffer a great exchange rate risk.

Zhang Ruiqian, for example, takes the influence of the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar as an example. A $1 million order will be placed on the 1:6.5 if the RMB is against the US dollar, but when it is submitted to the US dollar, the RMB will reach about 1:6.4 against the US dollar.

The exchange rate loss is 100 thousand yuan.

As the renminbi has entered a long-term channel of appreciation against the US dollar, many foreign trade enterprises in Hebei have adjusted their sales strategies, or reduced the export target settled in US dollars, opened up the Southeast Asian, Middle East and European markets outside the US market, or took the initiative to raise product quotations, so that both sides shared the exchange rate cost.

However, due to the large number of competitive enterprises, the latter way has the risk of losing customers, so developing new tourist sources in Europe and other places has become the best choice.

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But the renminbi's appreciation cycle for the euro has left many exporters feeling cold at heart.

In the impression of Zhang, there was a more obvious appreciation process for the RMB against the euro.

3 years ago, when the financial crisis broke out, the central parity of RMB against the euro broke through 10, 9 and two important points in the more than 40 trading days since September 2008, reaching a historical high of 8.5. In the past two months, the RMB has appreciated substantially more than 15000 basis points against the euro.

"At that time, it was the most difficult period for us, and foreign trade orders were basically stagnant. Neither the United States nor European markets could take orders."

But Zhang Ruiqian also said that the last appreciation of the RMB against the euro should be mainly caused by the sell-off of the euro at the beginning of the financial crisis, and the real economy of the whole euro area is not too big. Therefore, this appreciation is "coming quickly," after a slight improvement in labor pains.

Industry experts told reporters that the appreciation of the RMB against the euro was mainly due to the fact that the euro zone economy had problems.

The European debt crisis will lead to a decline in the overall growth of the euro zone economy. The depreciation of the euro itself is not only to the renminbi, but a comprehensive devaluation.

This means that the appreciation of the renminbi against the euro may not be a small cycle.

"We can not see the impact on our orders now, but if the appreciation continues for more than a month, we will have to bear the loss of the exchange rate for the new orders."

Zhang Ruiqian told reporters.

At present, the renminbi is appreciating against the US dollar and the euro, and the costs of internal raw materials and labor are also rising. If the situation of these two extrusion continues, the situation of export foreign trade enterprises may be "worse than two years ago."

Relevant

Break 6.38!

RMB to new dollar exchange rate since reform

According to the latest data from China foreign exchange trading center, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar in September 26th was 6.3735, which rose by 105 basis points on the previous trading day and once again hit a new high since the reform.

The people's Bank of China authorized the China foreign exchange trading center to announce that the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market in September 26, 2011 was RMB 1 yuan to RMB 6.3735 yuan, 1 euro to RMB 8.5634 yuan, 100 yen to RMB 8.3270 yuan, 1 Hong Kong dollar to RMB 0.81697 yuan, 1 pounds to RMB 9.8499 yuan, RMB 1 yuan to 1 ringgit, RMB yuan to Russia ruble.

On the previous day, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was 6.3840.

After the announcement of the Fed's announcement on the pessimism of the economy, worries about the global economy are pervasive.

Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector, which is the main force to promote the recovery of the euro area, is also shrinking. The PMI value of the euro zone's manufacturing sector in September dropped to its lowest level in two years.