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Alternative Investment Options In The Stock Market Crash

2011/9/30 16:03:00 23

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Drop in market

In addition to holding cash, there are several types of stocks that Chinese investors can consider. One is public stocks, the other two is high interest stocks.

In addition to these two categories, friends have recently mentioned another type of stock, which is about to be privatized.

I think of three, one is small fat sheep (0968), two is Huarun Microelectronics (0597), and three is Han Bo (0667).

There are three factors to consider when privatizing stocks: one is the odds, that is, the return; the two is the winning rate, that is, the success rate; the three is the time.

Among the three, the winning rate is the most difficult to quantify.

Yesterday's closing price to see the return, for the time being, the highest price, the closing price yesterday was 1.11 yuan, and the privatization price of 1.25 yuan between the potential return of 12.6%.

The second is the small fat sheep. The closing price on Friday is 6.03 yuan and the privatization price is 6.5 yuan, the potential return is 7.8%.

The third is Huarun microelectronics, which has the lowest potential return, with a closing price of 0.455 yuan yesterday and a privatization price of 0.48 yuan, accounting for only 5.5%.

In time, he knew the result in October 7th of this year. If successful, investors will receive checks in December.

Huarun microelectronics knew the result in September 28th of this year. If successful, investors will receive checks in November.

As for small sheep, the timetable is uncertain because they have to wait for approval from the Ministry of Commerce and regulatory authorities.

If we only consider the price.

Success rate

Small sheep should be the highest. The reason is that the offer price is attractive, and the privatization price is relative to the profit of the company last year, and the P / E ratio is 30 times.

But the biggest uncertainty of small sheep comes from the part that the Ministry of Commerce and regulators can approve.

The risk of Huarun microelectronics and Han Yu Bo's acquisition is that the minority shareholders are not satisfied with the price.

In 2009, Huarun microelectronics was once privatized, priced at 0.3 yuan, when the number of minority shareholders opposed to privatization exceeded 10%, and ended in failure.

Although the price of 0.48 yuan is 60% higher than that at that time, it seems that the attractiveness of the company has increased greatly, but the management of the company has improved substantially.

The success rate of the company is much harder to guess, mainly because of the initial privatization of large shareholders.

The author thinks that the entanglement of the small shareholders is the price. They generally believe that the price is not attractive, but they fear that if the privatization fails, their stock prices will probably repeat the previous long slump, so that they do not know how many years to wait.

Bo privatization investors also need to pay attention to the risk of privatization failure. If privatization fails, large shareholders can not revisit privatization within a year.

Take PCCW (0008) as an example, when the announcement of privatization failed to resume trading, shares fell more than 15%.

Therefore, investors should at least be prepared for the decline.