The Withdrawal Of Hot Money Allowed Cotton Prices To Rise And Fall By &Nbsp; Xinjiang Businesses Did Not Want To Harvest Cotton.

In this year's "2011"

"Our company has nearly 10000 tons of cotton and no buyers have been found. The loss is a foregone conclusion.

This year, we will not buy blindly as we did last year.

The head of a cotton industry company in Akesu told reporters that there has not been any contact with textile enterprises, but now they are only learning about the price trend of cotton and the relevant policies of the country.

Mr. Huang, a cotton merchant in Shandong, bought more than 1000 tons of cotton in the north and the South last year. It was a little profitable because of the acquisition and sale time, and it was one of the few cotton merchants who failed to buy cotton last year.

"With a little profit, I made a quick start and caught up with the high cotton price.

Many cotton traders are reluctant to make money and lose hundreds of millions of dollars.

He believes that there are still about two months to go for the listing of Xinjiang cotton this year. Now it is too early to sign a purchase and sale contract, and there is a great risk.

Hebei family

Reporters found that the meeting became the cotton situation analysis report, no one "whispers" at the meeting, and no one gathered during the tea break, lunch and dinner.

In this regard, Henan Nanyang Wanda cotton Co., Ltd. business manager Yu Gang analysis, since the second half of last year, cotton prices on the "roller coaster", a lot of cotton business losses.

At present, cotton enterprises' willingness to buy cotton is at the lowest point, so they do not want to negotiate purchase and sale business.

Almost all the mainland business participants came to understand the market situation and the output of Xinjiang cotton this year. Most of them attended the meeting with old customers in the mainland.

New cotton listed or difficult to sell

Why are cotton companies so depressed?

It is widely believed that the main reason is that China's cotton price index has fallen below the reserve price.

In August 12th, China's cotton price index fell to 19 thousand and 200 yuan / ton, compared with the 34 thousand and 900 yuan / ton historical high in February this year, or nearly 50%, which is the lowest point since August 4th when the index fell below the 19 thousand and 800 yuan / ton of the short-term storage and purchase price in 2011.

On the same day, Xinjiang cotton fell, and only 229 cotton stands on the storage price, reaching 20 thousand and 800 yuan / ton.

Cotton in the world looks at China and cotton in China looks at Xinjiang.

The total output of cotton will reach 27 million 155 thousand tons this year, and the total output of cotton will reach 7 million 400 thousand tons.

The output of Xinjiang is close to 3 million tons, which will account for 40% of China's total cotton output.

At present, Xinjiang's new cotton is on the market, and cotton prices fall below the cost of storage and purchase, which is not good for cotton farmers.

Zhang Wenmin, director of cotton research and development center of Wanda futures, analyzed: "last year, Xinjiang produced 2 million 479 thousand tons of cotton, calculated at 2600-2800 yuan per ton, with a profit of 20 billion yuan. Cotton farmers are the biggest beneficiaries."

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This year, the cost of cotton planting in Xinjiang is 1800-2100 yuan per mu, according to the average 1900 yuan / mu cost and 300 kg per mu, and the profit and loss balance point is 6.33 yuan per kilogram.

According to the calculation of the storage price, the seed cotton price is 8.5-9 yuan / kg, and the profit of cotton growers is 2-2.5 yuan / kg, and the yield per mu is more than 600 yuan.

Compared with last year, it will yield less than 1200 yuan.

"If seed cotton price is below 8.5 yuan / kg, it will affect cotton growers' enthusiasm for cotton planting next year, which will lead cotton farmers to plant crops such as forest and fruit.

If cotton growers insist on not selling for less than 8.5 yuan, they will be very disadvantageous to the cotton circulation enterprises in Xinjiang.

Wei Gaocheng, the party secretary and chairman of Xinjiang Cotton Industry Group Co., Ltd.

It is worth mentioning that as of the end of July, the total cotton business inventory in the country was 1 million 350 thousand tons, of which Xinjiang commodity cotton stocks were 201 thousand tons.

Cotton storage and storage capacity in China is only about 1 million tons this year, and about 6400000 tons of new cotton sold in the market, and 2 million 700 thousand tons in Xinjiang.

According to industry analysis, in the case of large cotton stocks, new cotton production, low import cotton prices, low chemical fiber prices, large yarn stocks and insufficient railway capacity, Xinjiang cotton listing will be difficult to sell this year.

Why? According to experts, there was a lot of hot money last year.

The market outlook is different.

What is the market price of cotton in Xinjiang? In this analysis meeting, the spokesman gave a different answer.

"The era of low cotton prices will be gone forever, and cotton prices will show a relatively stable trend in 2011.

It is estimated that the listing price of lint in Xinjiang will be higher than the purchase price, which will run between 22 thousand -2.4 yuan / ton.

Wei Gaocheng analysis.

Guo Rongmin, general manager of China cotton information network, believes that the current situation is not good. Textile enterprises in and outside China are generally digesting inventory and reducing cotton consumption.

"From the cotton prices in recent years and nearly 10 years, cotton prices are at a high level and there is still a downward trend.

2011 cotton prices in Xinjiang may be 17 thousand -1.8 yuan / ton.

"If the cotton price in 2011 is lower than the reserve price, the state will purchase the price at the bottom of this price, which will give the cotton grower a reassurance and indirectly determine the bottom line of the cotton price in that year.

The rising space of cotton looks infinite.

However, taking into account the current and future period of capital and policy margins, Xinjiang cotton price ceiling should not exceed 25 thousand yuan / ton.

Liang Dongya, general manager of cotton and linseed company, has his own view.

Cargill Inc, manager of China's cotton market, believes that the purchase and storage price is a strong support for the cotton market in 2011. The increase in cotton planting costs may push cotton prices to a certain extent.

However, India's cotton price may be lower than the reserve price after being affected by the cotton export volume in the two months of this year and the debt crisis in the United States and Europe. It is estimated that the price of new cotton in Xinjiang will fluctuate in the location of purchase and storage price.