Central Bank Open Market Force &Nbsp; Net Release Can Continue For 12 Weeks?

As of this weekend, the first two weeks of October, the open market due to fund up to 287 billion yuan, so 1 years. Central bank ticket The 28 day repo is released and the 7 day repo is restarted after a week's suspension. With the increase in demand for the central bank, the central bank's efforts to regulate liquidity in the open market are increasing. Therefore, the industry is divided over whether it can achieve 12 consecutive investments (including continuous net investment and National Day holidays).

Central bank Tuesday morning issued a 1 year 10 billion yuan central bank reference rate of return for eighth consecutive weeks at 3.5840%. On the same day, the central bank also carried out 50 billion yuan and 7 days. buy-back Operation, 40 billion yuan 28 days repo operation, the operation scale is remarkable, the winning rate is flat at 2.7% and 2.8% respectively.

The 7 day repo operation has been suspended in the last week before the National Day holiday, mainly due to factors such as digestion at the end of the quarter assessment, long holiday approaching, large cap purchase, and Ministry of Railways issuing bonds. The 7 day repo has been used for three weeks. After the above factors were partially resolved, the 7 day repo operation was resumed as scheduled.

"Since the central bank has not introduced further tightening measures, coupled with the continuous injection of liquidity into the open market, the capital side has been improving step by step, resulting in the continued downward trend in the two market interest rate, easing the pressure on the issuance of the primary market." A trader in a state-owned commercial bank said that the demand for money in the market is less than that. Therefore, the demand for the central bank is rising. Volume increment It is also reasonable.

The yield curve of the central debt shows that the yield of the two tier market of the 1 - year central bank is closed at 3.7461% on Monday, and the one or two market spreads further narrowed to 16 basis points.

Yesterday, the interbank offered rate (Shibor) in Shanghai continued to decline since October. The overnight interest rate fell 37.75 basis points to 3.4417 again, and the overnight repurchase fixed rate fell by 39 basis points to 3.46.

The performance of the interbank market shows that the market funds have been further alleviated.

This week, the open market expired 148 billion yuan, the largest single week maturity in October. The amount of funds expended last week was 139 billion yuan, but due to the National Day holiday, the central bank suspended the issue last week. Therefore, in the first two weeks of October, the cumulative maturity was as high as 287 billion yuan.

The traders said that because of the small amount of funds expired in the open market in the two week after October, the funds need to be smoothed with 7 day and 28 day repo operations. Also due to the low volume of funds due in January next year, the 3 month central bank and the 91 day repo will be released on Thursday. Therefore, the probability of net return this week is very large. It may break the pattern of net open market in three months.

Prior to this, the central bank has continuously invested funds through the open market for 11 consecutive weeks, with a total scale of 454 billion yuan.

"Excluding the rolling factor, the total amount of funds due in October totaled 377 billion yuan, and in October, the amount of funds recovered was 221 billion yuan. Under such circumstances, the central bank is still likely to achieve a small net investment of funds this week. A fixed income division of a listed brokerage firm said that, considering the moderate market spreads of the 1 - year central bank rate, the central bank's issuance will be moderate, but the market funds are still expected to maintain a balanced pattern. Moreover, in the fourth quarter, banks' overrun funds will increase by about 1 trillion yuan, and liquidity will gradually improve.

This person analysis, these positive factors will have a positive impact on the four quarter liquidity supply, and will also play an important role in the real economy. The weak stock market in the three quarter is also expected to be warmer under the impetus of Huijin holdings.