CPI And PPI Gains Continued To Fall &Nbsp; Inflationary Inflection Points Appeared.

September consumer price index (CPI), industrial producer

The National Bureau of statistics published data yesterday, in September CPI increased 6.1% year on year, further down from 6.2% in August, and better than the previous market expectations.

Food prices are still the main driving force behind CPI's rise.

Data show that in September, food prices rose 13.4% over the same period last year, affecting the overall price level rose by about 4.05 percentage points.

Among them, pork prices rose 43.5% over the same period, and contributed 20% to CPI.

Dong Xianan, chief economist of Beijing's leading international, told an interview with our reporter that a good harvest of autumn grain is conducive to adjusting the expected price increase in the future. From the data released by the Ministry of agriculture and the Ministry of Commerce, the price trend of food prices after the National Day holiday is obvious.

CPI growth is expected to fall from 5.2% in the three quarter to 6.3% in the four quarter.

Peng Wensheng, chief economist of CICC, said that with the influence of warping factors further

On the one hand is the stabilization of food prices and the weakening of the tail effect. On the other hand, the recent fall in commodity prices has also eased China's import inflationary pressure and created a downward trend for prices.

Data show that PPI rose 6.5% in September, the lowest growth rate this year.

From the point of view of the ring ratio, PPI was flat in September, and in the past four months, the PPI annulus increased by 0.1% except for August, and the other three months were flat.

Analysts pointed out that, due to the global economic slowdown, the probability of commodity prices rising in the short term is small. The fourth quarter PPI is expected to gradually decline over the same period, and will fall to around 5.5% at the end of the year.

However, although inflationary inflection points have been basically established, they can not relax their vigilance.

From the data point of view, the rate of CPI decline in September was not obvious, and the increase in September was 0.5%, an increase from 0.3% in August.

This shows that the current inflation pressure is still relatively large.

In view of this, Dong Xianan believes that the fourth quarter monetary policy will not turn.

Peng Wensheng also believes that monetary policy will remain tight in the short term. However, in order to deal with the financing difficulties of SMEs and ensure the construction funds for affordable housing, monetary and fiscal policies will be dominated by tight aggregate and directional easing.