Cao Renchao: In October, The Market Bearers Were Numerous &Nbsp, Or Bottomless Omen.

　　 equity market Is it in the end? Hongkong Investment Commentator Cao Renchao said no one could have known beforehand. However, judging from the adjustment time, the adjustment period of A shares is almost the same, and the Hang Seng Index has entered the low area. There were too many weak spots on the market in October, which is usually a harbinger of big cities.

　　 A shares The adjustment is almost the same in theory.

China Securities Journal: this week, the A share index dropped below 2319 points in the past two years. Will the A share continue to fall?

Cao Renchao: no one can know beforehand, but in terms of Hang Seng Index, 16200 points in October 4th should be an important support point, on the grounds that P/E is only 8.9 times. The bottom point often appears in the first few months after the emergence. It has been discovered that the two period of A bull market adjustment has been more than two years since August 2009.

The index has entered the low zone.

China Securities Journal: at present, the market has undergone a substantial adjustment, according to your judgment, has it become the time to turn cash into stocks?

Cao Renchao: for the Hong Kong stock market, it can be segmented from the 16200 points of the Hang Seng Index. I believe that the two phase of the bull market will soon be over. If it is not the fourth quarter of this year, it will be the first half of next year.

Now the Hang Seng Index P/E has entered the low area (8 times to 12 times). Personally, we believe that the HSI index will be accessible below 17800 and below 16200, but there will be little room for improvement in the future. Taking bank shares as an example, the growth rate of real estate loans is very limited in the face of the adjustment of property prices in the mainland and Hongkong. Besides, the income from the sale of fund services, the sale of shares, foreign exchange and so on can not be substantially increased. Therefore, although the P/E is low, the growth rate even low is not necessarily attractive.

The two phase of the Hang Seng Index bull market should be reduced by more than 31.8% or even 50%, possibly 61.8% or 16144. The first phase of the A share bull market began in November 2008 and ended in August 2009. It entered the two phase of the long bull market. The reason is that China's economic transformation will take a long time to complete.

Too much light is usually a harbinger of omen.

China Securities Daily: last week, China Huijin Company announced that it would increase the number of workers and peasants to build four major banks. What is the purpose of Huijin's holdings? Can the market bring about a wave of increase like the first two increases?

Cao Renchao: This represents the official's view that the bank's long line can be absorbed. There were too many market bearers in October, which is usually a harbinger of big cities.

China Securities Journal: the mainland's GEM companies, after the initial stir up, after the fall, is now generally below the issue price, how should we choose a good company in the gem?

Cao Renchao: I never talk about the gem, because the gem is a failure in Hongkong, and the mainland is no exception. In the US, the gem only leaves venture capital to invest, and ordinary investors should not participate in it.

China Securities Journal: if we look forward to the rebound in the market, after a substantial decline, how likely will A shares increase in the future?

Cao Renchao: no one knows about the short-term market. If we use the Hang Seng Index as a reference, Hong Kong stock has reached the level that can be held in the long term.

The public often sees the wrong city. Most investors or investment strategy decision makers seldom consider the problem from the perspective of economic cycle. Generally, the straight line projection method is adopted (for example, the net profit of the enterprise in the past two years has increased by 25% every year, and we expect that the net profit will increase by 25% this year or next year). There must be a series of "assumptions" and "reasoning" in the analysis of the market after the economic cycle. Once the reality is different from the reality, it must be corrected quickly.