Li Zhilin: The Lack Of Credibility In The A Share Market Is The Most Serious.

Last week's " Huijin Increase the bottom "2318 points, as the market New shares China Hydropower [4.53 0.22% Research Report] list And the stir up, which was ruthlessly broken down by 2317 points this week. In order to increase the market value of the 7 billion new shares, but lost 12000 billion in circulation market value, people with a slight sense of market value management understand that this is a big loss. However, in such a depressed market, the market is still losing its confidence and the market confidence is collapsing.

The expansion of the great leap forward is undoubtedly the crux of the current setback of China's stock market. But what is more serious is the lack of credibility. Premier Wen pointed out at the executive meeting of the State Council on 19, "the lack of credibility in the current society is quite prominent, and the masses are very unhappy." As everyone knows, the lack of credibility in China's stock market is the most serious.

1, the discredit of monetary policy. In early 2009, the Ming government launched a strong stimulus plan of 4 trillion investment and 10 trillion of local government support. The M2 balance reached 70 trillion, which was a "very loose monetary policy". However, it was lightly described as "moderately loose monetary policy", which led many people to miss the 1664 - 3478 big market. Since the end of 2010, the 5 increase in interest rates and the 12 increase in accuracy are clearly "extremely tight monetary policies". But they are still described as "prudent monetary policy". Even the "tight tightening" is not enough. Most of the stock market has lost their vigilance against the policy, which is obviously a lack of integrity in policy.

2, "barometer" discredit. The stock market is a barometer of the economy. The stock market in China used to reject "barometer" on the grounds of "split share structure". However, after today's full circulation, the stock market still did not regard the stock market as an economic barometer, let alone defend the barometer. By the end of 2000, China's GDP was only 8 trillion and 900 billion. In 2011, it rose to 43 trillion in 2011, an increase of 383%. In 2000, the amount of generalized currency issued in 2000 was 13 trillion and 240 billion. Now it is 80 trillion, increasing by 504%. The price of houses has risen 8 to 10 times, and prices have risen more than 5 times. The exchange rate has increased from 8.28 to 8.28 yuan, which means that the RMB has depreciated. However, in the past ten years, the stock market has risen by only 69 points from 2245 to 2314 points, and the barometer has been twisted into a mess, making it the worst stock market in the world.

Since the government emphasizes "to keep the income of the residents to keep up with the growth of GDP", why not emphasize that the stock market should keep up with the GDP? If we still recognize the "barometer of the economy", we should have a high sense of mission and sense of responsibility for the Chinese capital [4.55 0.00%] market, like the former chairman of the SFC, Zhou Zhengqing.

3, "we must grasp the speed of development and the unity of market bearing" commitment. This is a commitment that every leader will take in the first six years after assuming office, and has been in the market downturn for the three time. When the market loses its endurance, it resolutely stops expansion. The last two stops were 3000 and 2700 respectively. But in the past two years, the phrase "giving full consideration to the affordability of the market" suddenly disappeared and became a desperate expansion: more than 60% of the new shares were "broken" to expand; the avalanche of the stock index was like an underground collapse, and it had to be expanded. In 2009, GDP grew by 10.3%, but the market expanded from 1 trillion and 30 billion to the world, leading to a 3277 to 2808 stock market decline. This year, as the GDP continues to expand, the stock index will grow from 2808 to 2314 in the case of a 9.4% increase in the stock market. In this case, some officials still said: "the high speed expansion of China's stock market in the next 10 years will be the number one in the world". Does that mean that the wealth of the vast majority of people will be sucked up like the water in the pool?

4., "we must protect the interests of investors, especially small and medium-sized investors". This inscribed in front of the [0.09 -6.00%] Street stock exchange in the United States has become the supreme belief of the stock market in many countries, and is also the motto of every management of the stock market in China. What is the actual situation? The stock market in the US and Europe in the cradle of the global financial crisis and the worst hit areas, and the other four stock markets in the BRICs, have hit a new high in the first half of this year. Only the Chinese stock market has reached half of the hillside. Today, the 2314 point is 62.3% lower than before the crisis. The recent decline in China's stock market after the European debt crisis is twice as big as that in the European debt crisis. Today, the stock market, only the interests of the financiers and refinancing unlimited money, has become their feast, and the interests of the vast number of investors, especially small and medium-sized investors, has become "chicken feather", suffering in deep pain. Every big share issue, from offering to listing, has shown the tragedy of "laughing at home and crying at home." protecting investors' interests has become a mere empty talk, or a synonym for "maximizing the interests of investors".

5, "special approval" listing dishonesty. In accordance with the provisions of the company law and the securities law, a company that has been established for 3 years after the shareholding system reform can be listed. This should be the most authoritative and stately law. However, in the stock market, "power is greater than law". Over the past two years, a large number of "China" prefix capitalization stocks have only been established for one or two years, and they are listed on the "special approval" by the relevant departments. Such as China Metallurgical [2.92 -0.34% Research Report], China Building [3.14 0% Research Report, China Railway [2.93 -0.34% Research Report], China Railway Construction [4.31 0% Research Report], China's first [3.74 -2.86% Research Report], China Water Conservancy and so on. Many of these companies, before listing, pay for high prices, report packaging, profit growth or even fraud. After listing, financial statements generally face no more than 3 quarters. If China is heavy, counterfeiting has been investigated by the SFC, and its profit has dropped by 81.41% in less than a year. The newly listed Chinese hydropower accounts for more than 90% of the debt, and the investment in Burma hydropower station has suffered huge losses due to the abolition of Myanmar. However, it has deliberately concealed the major adverse information before listing, so it simply does not have the conditions for listing. The degree of fraud and harm of large cap stocks is much better than that of small cap stocks. Therefore, the recent market is extremely disgusted with the expansion of large cap stocks, there are reasons for this.

6. discredit of innovative varieties. Whenever the market comes up with a new breed of innovation, it always makes a good peach and blows it up, flaunting its success. But it turned out to be unsuccessful. For example, before the launch of the growth enterprise market, it was advertised as "ten years of grinding a sword" and it was very vigorous. But when it was launched, the board index was 1000 points. Now it has dropped to 760 points. Can it be successful? For example, before the launch of stock index futures, management and public opinion agree that the stock market in China has been ups and downs, especially the unilateral decline. It is because there is no stock index futures. If the stock index futures are launched, the stock market can be reversed and the stock market will fluctuate. The stock market will remain stable in the future. But the actual situation is: since the stock index futures opened, the stock market has never gone up, it has been unilaterally falling, and even less than the previous times. It has become a booster of 10 times short of China's stock market, and has become an accomplice of international capital to empty China's economy.

7, what is the hope in the difficult situation? First, when it falls to the limit, there is no internet purchase for the new stock market. The winning rate is very high. The number of agencies under the net purchase is also insufficient, resulting in the failure of the IPO, forcing the management to stop expanding or slowing the expansion of new shares with market forces. Two, in view of the current M2 falling to 13%, it has reached a new low of 10 years, and is lower than the government's 17% target of 4 percentage points. M1 has dropped to 8.9%, a 21 month low, below 10% of the tightness demarcation line. Next month's October CPI is likely to drop to 5.5%, and 11 and December will continue to fall below 5%. In this way, it can be expected that monetary policy will loosen within a few months. Therefore, at present, the desperation of the stock market panic is the performance of the rush to the bottom and the hard bottom of the market. When the market's patience exceeds the limit and panic cuts become habit, it will not be too far. Therefore, it is probably the best choice to hold some chips at the moment to keep the warehouse and prepare funds.