Xie B: If The SFC Pushes The International Board, It Will Cause Great Harm To The Stock Market.

First, summarize and evaluate Shang Fulin.

Shang Fulin transferred SFC The chairman has also been in office for 9 years, and now he is removed from office and transferred to the chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission. Since the chairman took office in the securities market, China's securities market has made some notable achievements from structure to system, from construction to development. The main achievement is that, with the support of the 7 ministries and commissions of the Central Committee, the reform of split share structure has been carried out with a great deal of courage and boldly spirit. This problem existed since the day of the establishment of the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 1990. It's China. Negotiable securities The most complicated and intractable disease in the market is like a high barrier lake. It can rush out at any time and cause the Chinese stock market to be destroyed. Prime Minister Zhu Rongji, who is known for his strong iron bowl rule, has tried many times to solve this difficult problem, but the stock market has answered him with a big drop. In the end, he had to say with reluctantly that everyone was opposed to changing the matter, or let the clever people of the next government solve it. After taking office, Shang Fulin listened to the opinions of economists and other parties, and made a quick report. He proposed to carry out the split share structure reform as soon as possible by the majority shareholder's consideration of the minority shareholders. He was supported. He said: "after the May Day, we will change it." So with Sany as the leader, the split share structure reform, which lasted for 6 or 7 years, began in May 2005. Now the reform is basically successful. The original 66% of non tradable shares have now been largely fulfilled and become tradable shares. Shanghai Shenzhen still has 22%--32%'s non tradable shares. Thus solving and is solving a historical big problem. That is to say, the interests of large and small shareholders are different. Large shareholders only want to win money, regardless of the bad situation of small shareholders. But this reform still has many shortcomings. For example, the majority shareholders' 10:3 compensation price for minority shareholders is too small. According to some scholars, it should be that the 10:5--10:6 premium is reasonable. Moreover, in the negotiations between the two sides in the supplementary price negotiations, they are full of corruption and tricky behavior of large shareholders, such as bribery and buying tickets of fund companies. I think the SFC is aware of this situation. It just doesn't want to make things too complicated. In the end, the small shareholders are the ones who suffer. The second is the lack of understanding of the difficulty and harm in the split share structure reform, which has caused the large shareholders to run away in a big way in the initial stage of the reform. Only later did they find that the proportion of the largest shareholders reached 0.99% per month (9.9% in one year). It is the low price of the large number of state shares, which has caused the stock market's long-term depression and depression. There are other reasons, of course, but this is the most important one, and the common people are often numb and forgotten. Of course, in the early days of reform, Shang Fulin's luck was very good. He encountered the appreciation of RMB that had not been appreciated for a hundred years. In July 20, 2005, the reform of RMB's appreciation from 1:8.28 to 1:6.3, a large number of foreign capital poured into China, more and more foreign exchange was occupied, and more money was issued, so there was a big bull market of 2005-2007 years, from 1000 to 6000. The hardest part of him was washed away. But in October 2007, after the monetary policy was very tight, the behavior of large shareholders' large amount of cash was alerted, which caused an extremely bad effect on the stock market's decline. Now that the split share structure reform has entered the final stage, the victory is visible, so we say that Shang Fulin's merits should be affirmed. This matter will be noted in the history of Chinese securities.

Another achievement of Shang Fulin is the vigorous development of SME board and gem. Gem has listed 274 companies since October 30, 2010, and the listing rate is very fast. But after all, it has opened up a new financing channel for China's private enterprises. But there is no shortage of counterfeit and inferior commodities, there is no lack of fake accounts, but in general, it is a good thing, and has made a great contribution to the improvement of China's securities market. However, under the leadership of Shang Fulin, the SME board launched a new reform of the IPO market. In 2011, more than 200 new shares were issued, and more than 30% of them fell short of the issue price, which caused great harm to people. The general manager of the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange also seemed to be forced to make a statement: breaking the issue price is a good thing. This is something that the general managers of dozens of stock exchanges around the world have never dares to do so that the leaders of the stock exchange and investor sentiment are in opposition. Where is the wholesale price higher than the retail price in the world? How can a pig be more expensive than a pig? The reason that ordinary people understand is that Chairman Shang Fulin does not understand it.

Another mistake of chairman Shang Fulin, during the last year of his tenure, has repeatedly advocated the implementation of the international board in Shanghai. Under the current domestic and international economic situation, the share price of 80% of the domestic stock is higher than that of foreign countries, and there are advantages and disadvantages. In addition to adding a little Commission and tax to the Shanghai Stock Exchange, it is extremely unfavorable to the Chinese nation. I think the international board must be RMB free after the capital account is fully convertible. After the state shares and corporate shares are completely lifted and circulated after 20--30%, the price of domestic and foreign shares will be basically balanced so that foreign companies will be able to accept the direct listing of foreign companies in China's stock market. Otherwise, they will marry a large number of American girls, British girls and French girls to grab property in China. It is very harmful and expensive to hand over to foreigners. The terrible thing is that there is a big hole in the wall that the renminbi can not be freely convertible. Its nature is the Hong Kong stock direct train in that year, and I believe that reason will eventually prevail over blind obedience.

During the chairmanship of President Shang Fulin, the status of the SFC in recent years was enhanced. When Zhou Xiaochuan was chairman, people used to call names in their names. But during the period of Shang Fulin's administration, few people scolded him, but secretly laughed at the Internet. During the period of Shang Fulin's leadership, China's stock market went through the most brilliant bull market and the most bitter bear market in China. There are many factors in it. The split share structure reform is better than the one who won't get the right price. So it just started to push the stock market up. (when the renminbi appreciates), but in the big bear market after October 2007, the sharp fall in the stock market of state-owned shares played a very bad role in the stock market's decline. Because of the short bear mayor of the bull market, 70% of the investors were losing money these years, so people did not have a good impression of chairman Shang Fulin. It was bad for Qian Hao wan to ask me to lose money, and most of them had an aloof and wait-and-see attitude toward him, but the securities companies and fund management companies were relieved because they were afraid of him.

Two, research expects Guo Shuqing

During his prime minister Zhu Rongji, Guo Shuqing was entrusted with the responsibility of the director of the China foreign exchange administration. First, the RMB depreciated greatly. From 5.7%--8.28%, with Premier Zhu Rongji, the most brilliant, most crucial and most important initiatives of his government in the past few years have been completed. That is, the exchange rate of RMB has been maintained at 1:8.28 at 1995--2005, so that tens of thousands of private enterprises in China have pushed the commodities to the world at the lowest price in the world. They have defeated the commodities of Japan, Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Europe and the United States, made "MADE IN CHINA" go all over the world, and made such ingenious and clever, so that the whole world did not perceive it. It is said that Zhu Rongji once sighed: "one interest rate, one stock market, one exchange rate these three markets (inflation, stock market, foreign exchange market), what we manage best is foreign exchange and exchange rate." Although Premier Zhu Rongji is far sighted and strategically important, but Guo Shuqing of the safe is very important. Therefore, I think he later went to the Construction Bank as chairman.

After Guo Shuqing became chairman of the securities and Futures Commission, investors were confident, and the stock market rebounded strongly. Even 2 new shares issued next week were linked with him. He said he sympathized with shareholders and opposed the big leap forward spamming of new shares. He regarded him as a great advantage in stabilizing the stock market. Many famous people in the market have offered him hope and advice. I do not think he will go to see it. Here, I want to remind you that first, the rise of the current round is a response to the timely fine-tuning of macroeconomic policy. When the Central Bank expired, new loans were released, and loans to local key enterprises were relaxed. This year's stock market has yet to appear, so we need to make a quick stir up. However, we must remind you that the suppression of real estate is still very serious. The breakdowns of the capital chain of major real estate enterprises are common. Even Vanke and other large enterprises have a large discount sale. This situation is both gratifying and worrying. If this situation continues, the situation of the real estate market is still sad, then the more than 40 industries associated with it will not be good, and the speed of economic downturn is still very fast. The GDP figures for September have not yet been released, but we expect that it will be fast. Second, house prices are falling, and Vanke proposes not to take the wrong place. And if the land is not sold, the 10 trillion and 700 billion debt of the local government will not come out. This winter and next spring, many of them will expire. What happens if the local government depends on bank accounts? What should we do? Even the bank accounts are still dependent on the debts of the government. Can the government's debt be reliable? The real monetary policy loosening depends on the reduction of the reserve ratio. On the basis of the current inflation rate of 6%, will the central bank dare? Guo Shuqing once said that the A share should be internationalized as soon as possible. If it is true, if Guo wants to support the launch of the international board, it will cause great harm to the stock market. I hope this is a random speech before he becomes chairman of the SFC, and not to work hard after his post.