Li Zhilin: Bull Market Theory Does Not Set Up &Nbsp; The Next Two Types Of Stocks Are The Most Profitable.

Starting from the 2307 point

1, the international fundamentals have improved.

The European debt crisis, which has been plaguing China's stock market for a long time, has finally revealed the dawn of the solution; the ECB's unexpected interest rate cut is another trigger for China's monetary policy adjustment; the euro area and the US economy will fall into a weak position next year, easing China's import inflationary pressure and providing impetus for China's economic growth next year.

Usually, the more the world economy and China are.

2, the policy "pre regulation fine tuning" is being implemented step by step.

After Premier Wen issued a tone change policy, the four major lines of credit were thawed by the end of October, an increase of 140 billion. At the end of the year, credit would be more relaxed, new loans for the whole year would still be 7 trillion and 500 billion, the central bank's repurchase ceased, the market would continue to inject capital into the market, the bank lending rate would collectively dive; the Ministry of Railways received 200 billion of the new construction funds; the government's favorable policies for supporting the cultural industry, software industry, environmental protection industry and the Internet were continuously released; eight ministries and technicians were able to launch the "decision" of the small and medium-sized technology enterprises, and a series of preferential tax reduction policies for SMEs were launched in succession.

With the plunge of commodities, farm and sideline products, housing prices and pork prices, CPI is expected to fall below 5.5% in October, and is expected to drop to around 4.5% in 11 and December.

Tight monetary policy over the past year is expected to turn into directional easing, targeted easing and partial easing.

Hu Jintao's "urgent task of global growth is to maintain growth" in Europe, which means that China's main task has shifted from "anti inflation" to "maintaining growth".

If "inflation prevention" has led to a fall in the stock market, then the "growth guarantee" will inevitably lead to a rebound in the stock market and a steady rise.

This is the logic of stock market in the past 20 years.

3, the chairman of the securities and Futures Commission, Yi people means the "fine-tuning" of the stock market policy.

At the 2300 point and the stock market rose zero in 10 years, the chairman of the SFC suddenly changed.

Although it can not be expected that this is "changing soup and dressing change", it is by no means "changing the soup without changing the medicine".

It may be interpreted as "mire changing horses", a signal for the fine-tuning of stock market policies. It is a specific measure that Hu Jintao said in Europe that "the urgent task at present is to restore the functions of financial markets and boost market confidence" in the personnel adjustment of China's stock market.

As a matter of fact, after the new chairman took office, the large market share of Shaan coal energy issued by the market was postponed. So far, there has been no written approval for the construction of the Sino foreign exchange company. So far, Xinhua life has not been able to attend the meeting. On Thursday, 4 new shares will be listed on the 3 issue. The head of the securities and Futures Commission said that the market constraints of the IPO should be strengthened. Only 4 small cap stocks were issued this week, only 2 small cap stocks were issued next week. All of these indicate that the new chairman is still following the public opinion and considering the market's bearing capacity.

4, the "fine tune" of two characters determines that it can only be a structural market.

After talking about the "pre fine adjustment", Premier Wen stressed that "we must continue to suppress and resolutely eliminate backward production industries, high energy consumption and high pollution industries." we must make greater efforts to focus on strategic emerging industries supported by policies.

It is seen that in the current round of rebound, the heavyweights only played the role of underpinning and supporting the market. Resource stocks, iron and steel stocks, coal shares, cement stocks, real estate stocks and building materials stocks were highly energy consuming, and were deeply affected by the weakening of the world economy next year, and the government's industrial policy inhibited the stock market rebound.

And the new hot spot of the market will stand out: it will become the cultural media share of the pillar industries in the future, and the small and medium-sized technology stocks which are mainly supported by the government policy, especially the stock of cloud computing, software, Internet and environmental protection. The characteristics of the structural market are very obvious.

This also determines that the height of the current market can not be too extravagant. It is fortunate to restore the 2500--2800 point in the year to carry out the shock of the box. The hot spot in the structural market may reproduce the situation of the "5.19" market in 1999.

5, technical data also support the characteristics of structural market.

From the beginning of last year's decline in November, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 27.6% from 3186--2307, Shanghai's 50 from 2321--1657 point, 28.6%; Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 from 29.7% points, 29.7%; Shenzhen Shenzhen stock index from 13936--9653 point, 30.7%; Shenzhen composite index from 1358--944 point, 30.5%; small and medium-sized board from 7848--5374 point, 31.5%; and gem fell from 1239--471 point, 40.2%.

The bigger the rally is, the bigger the stock will be.

As of Friday's closing, the gem rose by 19%, with a rise of 13.7% in the SME board, a 13.5% rise in the Shenzhen composite index, a rise of 10.8% in the Shenzhen stock index, 300 in Shanghai and Shenzhen, 50 in the Shanghai Stock Exchange, 10.5% in the Shanghai Composite Index, and a 9.5% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index.

Even so, the total decline of gem is still larger than other indexes.

I believe that after the adjustment of the 2550--2600 point line, the market's hot spots and opportunities will still belong to them.

Because of the government's policy support, financial support and the support of key industries, the technology based small cap stocks and cultural industry stocks will be the best growing stock market in the next few years, the most likely to win the big market, the most high pfer opportunities and the most profitable market.

Therefore, people should correct the wrong valuation method that equates the price to earnings ratio of large and small stocks, and reassess the value of these two new hotspots in a dynamic growth perspective.