Inflation Has Dropped To A Foregone Conclusion Of &Nbsp; CPI Will Rise Or Fall Below 5% In The Next Two Months.

After running for four months at the high level of "6%", the general price level finally showed a "deceleration".

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday showed that consumer prices (CPI) rose 5.5% in October, down 0.6 percentage points from 6.1% in September, and CPI rose 0.1% in October, narrowing compared with the 0.5% increase in September.

Analyst

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14.60-0.20-1.35%, 12.97-0.31-2.33% of agricultural products, pointed out that inflation is down. It is expected that CPI will continue to decline to below 5% in the next two months.

Food prices fell for the first time in 5 months.

It is estimated that in the 5.5% CPI increase in October, last year's price rise factor accounted for nearly 1.5 percentage points, and this year's new price increase factor is about 4.04 percentage points.

In the new price increase factor, food price rise is still the bulk.

Data show that in October, food prices rose 11.9% over the same period, affecting the overall price level rose by about 3.62 percentage points.

Among them, pork prices rose by 38.9%, and the contribution to CPI was still 20%.

However, since entering October, the price of food has declined significantly compared with the previous months, and has also become the main reason for the apparent decline of CPI growth in October.

This is very evident in the food price chain data. Data show that in October, the price of food decreased by 0.2%, which is the first time the data has fallen in the past 5 months.

Among them, the price of fresh vegetables decreased by 3.4%, which affected the total consumer price level by about 0.09 percentage points.

The price of meat and poultry and its products decreased by 0.6% (pork prices fell by 1.8%, 1.2% in September), egg prices fell by 3.8% (2.4% in September), and the price of aquatic products decreased by 1.5%.

Zhang Liqun, a macroeconomic researcher at the development research center of the State Council, said that food is the dominant force in the current price rising process. Now pork prices have basically stabilized, and vegetable prices have dropped considerably.

A series of national price control measures have become increasingly apparent, and price increases are accelerating.

CPI will rise or fall below 5% in the next two months.

Because of the largest share of food in the basket of CPI, with the further fall in food prices and the reduction of year-end factors, analysts expect that CPI growth will continue to fall below 5% in the next two months.

Lu Zheng commissar, chief economist of Societe Generale Bank, said that the data in October clearly showed that prices had entered a downward path. The soft landing of the economy was successful. It is estimated that the CPI increase in November and December will fall below 5%, and the annual CPI increase is expected to be 5.4%-5.6%.

Peng Wensheng, chief economist of CICC, also pointed out in yesterday's report that the tail factor in November will significantly fall by 1 percentage points, while food price inflation will continue to slow down. It is expected that CPI will rise to 4.5% in November, and the increase in December will be flat or slightly lower than that in November.

At the same time, the slowdown of imported inflation pressure is also conducive to the control of domestic inflation.

On the same day, statistics released by the statistics bureau also showed that producer prices (PPI) of industrial producers rose by 5% in October, up to a new low in one year, and 0.7% in the ring.

"PPI's year-on-year growth is lower than previous expectations, consistent with the contraction of the purchasing price index of the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the month dropped to below 50%, indicating that the upstream inflation pressure continues to weaken under the combined effect of a steady economic slowdown and the continued easing of imported inflation pressure."

Peng Wensheng said.

Dong Xianan, chief economist of Beijing leading international financial corporation, believes that if there is no big change in monetary policy, the downward trend of CPI and PPI will continue to the middle of next year.

Li Daokui, a member of the central bank's monetary Committee and professor of Tsinghua University, also said that due to the fall in the prices of food and agricultural products, the CPI growth will decline rapidly. The CPI increase is expected to be 5.5% this year and the CPI increase will be 2.8% next year.

Inflation risk should not be ignored

Although inflation pressure has slowed down in the short term, the industry has warned that inflation is still high, CPI is still rising, and there is a possibility of a rebound in food prices. The risk of inflation can not be ignored.

With the arrival of new year's day, Spring Festival and other holidays, all kinds of consumption will enter the traditional peak season, and the driving force of prices is still in.

Especially in terms of food prices, the price cycle of pork prices is generally three years, and the current rising cycle has not yet * * * ed completely, and prices of pork and vegetables are easily fluctuated.

In addition, affected by the housing market regulation and control measures, housing prices in some parts of the country are loose, but the housing prices are still at a high level, and the real estate market still has a rebound pressure.

In the medium to long term, the pressure of inflation is still very high as labor costs and resource prices rise and the cost of environmental use rises.

Against this background, although inflation has set aside room for further fine-tuning of policies, the main keynote of prudent monetary policy will not change.

Zhang Liqun said that although the price has dropped somewhat, the stock of money is still large. The government should be cautious when considering monetary policy loosening, and can not ignore the possibility of relaxing the policy to push up prices.

For the signal of "policy anticipation fine-tuning", Li Daokui believes that the current monetary policy should not be relaxed. When fine-tuning the economic policy, we should focus on fiscal policy, and the adjustment of fiscal policy should be aimed at easing the financing environment of SMEs.