Nomura: China'S Growth Is Even More Risky, &Nbsp, But It Will Not Cut Interest Rates In The First Half Of Next Year.

Nomura China chief economist Zhang Zhiwei said, despite the real estate

"The real estate market seems to be shrinking rapidly -- all leading indicators indicate that it will be further weakened. Therefore, I predict that the risk of the next two quarters will be biased towards the bottom line and may exceed the market expectations.

"Zhang Zhiwei said to Lu Du.

Last week, data showed that China's real estate sales fell for the first time in six months in 10 months, which proves that the government's cooling policy is having an effect on the industry which accounts for about 10% of GDP.

"Quarterly, I think it is possible that the economic growth rate is below 8%; in view of the announcement last week, I

Zhang Zhiwei said the shrinkage of the real estate industry has affected the steel industry, and in October steel.

Zhang Zhiwei said he expects the rest of the year to be at least in the first half of next year.

"Next year, I expect that the policy will shift from fine-tuning to gradual relaxation, but even next year, I do not think there will be any stimulus plan.

"

He said that at present there are financial support from most public housing construction - 10 million affordable housing projects have been started this year, and the scale of construction will be similar next year.

At the same time, the government is likely to provide monetary support through raising the target of new loans, rather than cutting interest rates or lowering the reserve requirement ratio of banks.

"We expect to increase loan supply in the first quarter of next year," Zhang Zhiwei said, adding that the total amount of new loans in 2011 will reach 7 trillion and 500 billion (trillion) yuan, up from 7 trillion and 900 billion in 2010.

At present, we expect that the total amount of new loans in 2012 will increase from 7 trillion and 500 billion this year to 8 trillion yuan.

"He said.