People Say ICE Cotton: Good Export Difficulties, European Debt Crisis Spread

Although the US cotton export weekly report released on Thursday showed that the US cotton net signed export volume reached 145059 tons a week as of November 10th, the second highest week contract volume in 2011, which was only lower than that of the previous week's 226 thousand and 300 tons.

However, the main buyer still signed 142247 tons of cotton for China and China, and the rest of the world signed no more than 1000 tons in addition to 2087 tons of Vietnam. It shows that the world's energy consumption is still in the doldrums, and the purchase of China's national reserves will not change the pattern of oversupply of global supply.

On the other hand, Spanish and French bond auctions are not ideal, highlighting the threat of larger euro zone economies to become victims of the debt crisis. Investors are worried that the European debt crisis may spread further, and market risk aversion increases again. Overnight financial stocks such as stocks, gold, crude oil and so on have been hit hard. ICE cotton is also hard to escape. In March, the contract fell to 4 cents to 96.48 cents / pound, pushing forward again to the support of 95 cents / pound.

At present, both the fundamentals and the macro level are hard to come by, and the downtrend will continue. For example, if the 95 cent / pound of the March contract is lost, the downward goal will be 91 cents / pound.

Technically, the ICE cotton fell sharply, technical indicators were reversed, the average system was glued to form a short alignment trend, the KD index from the previous bull market to the blank fell arrangement, the MACD index also tended to bond, the red column shortened, the cotton price weakened, the rally ended, the 1203 contract would challenge the support position of 95 cents / pound.

China's large purchase of imported cotton is difficult to change the pattern of oversupply of global supply. India's clothing productivity index has dropped for the 4 consecutive month, reaching a low level in recent two years.

China's exports are declining due to the weakness of European and American economies. It is expected that consumption will not improve before the Spring Festival, and the weakness will continue.

Therefore, although Zheng cotton has maintained a relatively stable pattern of state reserve policy, there is no support for capital and popularity, and it is difficult to get rid of the weak pattern. It is expected that Zheng cotton will fall back with commodities on Friday. It is suggested that we keep short ideas and continue to hold empty orders, pay attention to the support level of 20050 yuan / ton of the 1205 contract, reduce the blank holdings, and continue to increase its holdings after the rebound in cotton prices.

(Wanda futures Urumqi Sales Department Du Ying)

The European debt crisis is spreading, and cotton prices will continue to weaken.

ICE cotton futures closed down on Thursday.

The March contract fell 400 points to 96.48 cents.

Spanish and French bond yields rose sharply, the European debt crisis spread to the core countries and deteriorated, and the United States would not be able to reach agreement on the deficit reduction plan, the futures market worried about the economic situation has increased, commodity and stock market has seen a general decline, ICE cotton futures opened after the shock, followed by the decline in the trend of neighboring commodities, ICE cotton futures are expected to decline this trend is difficult to continue, after the situation will stabilize and rebound.

Domestic cotton storage and storage of 37670 tons, the vast majority of the Xinjiang warehouse paction, the northern region cloudy and rainy weather affected the processing and storage of cotton in the mainland, the current volume of storage has nearly 600 thousand tons.

The price of seed cotton lint is still relatively weak, there is not much deal in the spot, the situation of yarn business is not good, the sales of cotton yarn are not smooth, the production of chemical fiber products is decreasing, some textile enterprises have limited production, the European debt crisis is nauseated, the global economic situation is not good and the weak demand continues to suppress cotton prices and cotton flower consumption is depressed.