Multiple Factors Hype &Nbsp; PTA Short Term Rebound

This week's market is still weak. Last week, the seemingly breakthrough oil fats up this week, returning to the early stage.

Relatively speaking, the PTA1205 contract broke out on a long line last Friday after reaching a new low of 7818 yuan / ton. After several days of trading, the PTA1201 contract was upside down, while the Changyang contract also went on the offensive.

In fact, PTA has been making a lot of short-term gains in recent days, which has also become a factor of speculation.

"The main thing is to hype PTA production enterprises to limit production and price protection."

Li Zhoulei, an interim researcher in Shanghai, told reporters in an interview with financial weekly in November 23rd.

In the near future, the whole industry chain of PTA is in a state of reduction.

Following the lower loom operating rate from 72% to 55%, pet prices continued to decline, while the polyester industry's overall operating rate dropped from nearly two to 88% in the last two weeks. The downstream downturn and its own losses made the PTA plant begin to overhaul.

According to statistics, from late November to December, there are 4 million 450 thousand tons of capacity overhaul from 1 weeks to 1 months, involving Shanghai petrochemical, Yizheng chemical fiber, Zhuhai BP and so on. Apart from normal maintenance, some factories may stop production due to previous losses.

In addition, another sudden advantage for PTA is the explosion of Dalian Port (601880).

At 18:35 on November 22nd, at the Dalian Port oil terminal Wharf Group No. 31 and No. 32 two one hundred thousand ton class two oil tanks were struck by lightning. According to the latest news, the fire was basically controlled and no casualties were caused.

The same incident happened last year. In July last year, the oil pipeline in Dalian exploded. This year, the oil tank exploded again. It was the same as last year's oil spill and PX project. In July last year, under the stimulation of the explosion,

"Connecting with the PTA futures market brought about by the speculation of PX in Dalian last year, the impact of this incident on the market also makes the market pay close attention to the price of PTA."

Wang Zhenmin, a researcher at Huayuan futures, said in an interview with reporters.

In addition, the rise of crude oil outside the market also brought rise impetus to downstream PTA.

"The periphery has recently been hyping the situation in Iran, and the supply of crude oil is under pressure."

Chen Shaoyang, a researcher at China financial futures, told reporters.

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In fact, the price of crude oil has risen steadily since October, rising from $74 / barrel to $103.73 / barrel, although it has been at a high level recently, but it is still around 97 dollars / barrel.

Meanwhile, the PTA industry conference held in Xiaoshan, Zhejiang, has also become a catalyst for the market in the near future. Before the meeting, people in the market expect the industry to issue a corresponding resolution on the current policy of limiting production and price protection for PTA.

From the spot price, the price of PTA in East China is around 8500 yuan / ton, and has risen for several consecutive days, but the increase is not very big.

The market outlook is still empty.

Although the short-term PTA has rebounded, the recent rise can only be defined as a rebound, and the market outlook is still not optimistic.

For the afternoon, Chen Shaoyang told reporters: "the fundamentals are still limited, medium and long term bearish, short-term technical rebound."

Everbright futures believes that at present, the bad profits in the early days have been slightly digested in the disk, and the factory has been gradually overhauled. PTA will stabilize slightly near the current price, and will maintain weak shocks in the short term.

In the medium term, it is still necessary to resume the following tour terminal or continue to stop production. According to the current situation, the resistance to PTA rise is still greater.

Wang Zhenmin also holds similar views. He believes that in view of the fact that the PTA1201 increase has been relatively large, there are signs of stopping interest in the early arbitrage list, and more prudence is held alone. The upper resistance is 8450 yuan / ton, and PTA1205 can maintain multi headed thinking, with a resistance of 8280 yuan / ton above.

In addition, due to the recent shift of positions, PTA1205 contracts and PTA1201 contracts have been substantially increased since last Wednesday, and the spreads have been gradually enlarged from 60 yuan. As of Wednesday, the spread has exceeded 200 yuan.

Nevertheless, arbitrage trading needs to be cautious.

Li Zhoulei pointed out: "arbitrage trading at present has some risks, because the price difference has exceeded 200 yuan, although there is a possibility of further expansion, the risk return ratio will not be as high as it was on Wednesday. The main reason is that the gap between the 1201 positions and the registered warehouse receipts is too large to be a bit crowded. However, the 1201 contract has a few months from the deadline.

However, with the pfer of funds, the shift from 1201 to 12051205 will surely be under pressure, so the spreads will widen.