Analysis And Prediction Of Economic Operation Situation Of Home Textile Industry

Industry in the first three quarters of this year production and marketing Good profits and steady improvement in overall efficiency. In country Macro-control Under the guidance of policy, industry investment growth slowed down. Because of the three quarter cotton prices and other raw materials callback, business has improved. The export price of products has increased, and the social and economic situation in developed countries has been turbulent, which has increased the risk of global economic operation. It is both a challenge and an opportunity for the transformation and upgrading of enterprises in China.

　　 Operation and characteristics

According to the industry export data of China Customs General Administration, the statistics of 1523 Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size, the 16 industrial clusters and 200 tracking survey data from the National Bureau of statistics, we are right. Home textile industry The economic operation situation has been carried out. Analysis And forecast.

(1) good production and marketing, and industry. benefit Steadily improve

1. the National Bureau of statistics has provided 1523 scale of economic indicators for industrial enterprises:

In 1~9 months, the gross industrial output value of 153 billion 850 million yuan was increased, and the total output value increased by 23.67%. The sales value was 150 billion 858 million yuan, an increase of 23.79% over the same period last year; the delivery value of exports was 40 billion 95 million yuan, an increase of 23.87% over the previous year; the sales rate reached 98.34%, and the production and marketing connection was good; the export accounted for 25.9%, down by 1.79% over the same period last year.

In September, enterprises above Designated Size realized industrial output value of 15 billion 444 million yuan, an increase of 2.11% over August, an increase of 22.44% over the same period last year, blocking the downward trend in the growth rate of single month output in the first few months.

The efficiency of Enterprises above Designated Size improves month by month. In the 1~8 months, the profits of Enterprises above Designated Size reached 6 billion 664 million yuan, an increase of 32.66% over the same period last year, and profit margins and cost and profit margins increased by 5.11% and 5.39% compared to the same period last year. The three fee share decreased by 4.79% compared with the same period last year.

2. the statistics of 200 enterprises' economic indicators completed by the association:

In the first three quarters, the total industrial output value was 62 billion 713 million yuan, an increase of 16% over the same period last year. The main business revenue reached 62 billion 210 million yuan, an increase of 17.13% over the same period last year; the value of export delivery was 17 billion 341 million yuan, an increase of 11.25% over the previous year; the total profit was 3 billion 600 million yuan, up 33.04% over the previous year; the profit rate was 5.79%, an increase of 13.58% over the same period last year.

3. the completion of the economic indicators of the 16 industrial clusters of the association:

In the first three quarters, the total industrial output value was 164 billion 479 million yuan, an increase of 10.23% over the same period last year, and the value of export delivery was 34 billion 781 million yuan, an increase of 13.08% over the same period last year. The main business income was 165 billion 232 million yuan, up 9.93% over the same period last year, with a total profit of 8 billion 377 million yuan, an increase of 14.68% over the previous year, with a profit rate of 5.07% and an increase of 4.32%. {page_break}

(two) investment slowed down, and the effect of macro-control appeared.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, in the first three quarters, 1523 Enterprises above Designated Size actually completed 23 billion 869 million yuan in fixed assets investment, an increase of 34.69% over the same period last year. A total of 746 construction projects, a decrease of 2.86% over the same period, 493 new projects, a decrease of 8.70% over the same period; 363 completed projects, an increase of 5.22% over the same period last year.

(three) enterprises under cluster scale are better.

According to the statistics of 16 industrial clusters collected by the association, in the three quarter, the operating efficiency of enterprises under the scale improved slightly, and the total industrial output value, sales value and main business income all reversed the negative growth trend in the first half of the year, and achieved positive growth.

In the first three quarters, the delivery value of enterprises under the scale increased by 28.1%, which greatly exceeded the growth rate of Enterprises above designated size. The profit margin increased by 20.57% compared with the first half of the year, narrowing the profit gap with enterprises above Designated Size, highlighting the strong anti risk ability of industrial clusters and the tenacious vitality of SMEs.

(four) export prices have obviously increased and export volume has generally declined.

According to the General Administration of customs, China's exports amounted to US $25 billion 297 million in the first three quarters, up 16.74% over the same period last year. Among them, the single month export growth in 3~9 months was 36.67%, 23.28%, 13.77%, 13.53%, 19.68%, 20.44% and 16.77% respectively, and the trend of export slowdown is now turning point.

In the 34 export products, the price of the other 33 products increased in varying degrees except for a single unit price reduction. Among them, more than 10% of the products were exported, accounting for 98.89% of the total export volume, and over 20% of the total exports accounted for 50.84% of the total export volume, while those with more than 30% accounted for 4.58% of the total exports. Compared with the first half of the year, the price increase continued to expand, but the export volume of products with a sharp rise in prices dropped.

From the perspective of export volume, the export volume of 17 products decreased year by year, accounting for 72.74% of the total export volume, slightly smaller than the first half of the year. In addition, the first three quarters of China's imports of home textiles products $1 billion 218 million, an increase of 13.65% over the same period last year. {page_break}

(five) exports to the US and EU continue to shrink.

In the first three quarters, the top three of China's domestic textile products exports were still the United States, the European Union and Japan, and China's total exports to these three markets totaled 13 billion 360 million US dollars, up 11.27% over the same period last year, accounting for 52.83% of total exports, down 4.69 percentage points from the same period last year. Among them, China's exports to the United States and the European Union increased by 4.67% and 11.81% respectively, lower than the average growth rate of 16.76%, and the growth rate of exports to Japan was higher than the average level, reaching 26.56%.

The decrease in export volume was mainly due to the weak global economic growth and the high unemployment rate, resulting in insufficient purchasing power and a general decline in consumer demand.

According to us customs statistics, the number of cotton pillowcases imported from the United States decreased by 21.7% in the 1~8 months, 24.18% in the bed sheets, 27.85% in the bedspreads, and 12.29% in the towel. Except for towels, the import volume of all kinds of products has been reduced to varying degrees, but less than the import volume.

(six) export growth to emerging economies is strong.

According to Chinese customs statistics, exports to emerging economies showed a good growth trend in the first three quarters. Among them, three BRIC countries, Russia, India and Brazil, exported 1 billion 428 million US dollars, an increase of 43.46% over the same period last year, and 1 billion 488 million US dollars for ASEAN 10 countries, an increase of 36.79% over the same period last year. Our exports to South American countries other than Brazil were US $830 million, an increase of 37.65% over the same period last year. China's exports to BRICs, ASEAN 10 countries and South American countries increased by 39.45% over the same period last year, much higher than that of developed countries. {page_break}

　　 Development trend and suggestion

(1) stabilizing cotton prices and enhancing market confidence

Since March this year, cotton prices have entered the downward space. From the end of August to the end of October, the price ranges from 19 thousand yuan to 20 thousand yuan per ton, reversing the fast rising trend of prices since the second half of last year, pulling the price of pure cotton 32S yarn down and stabilizing at a small fluctuation of 27 thousand yuan to 28 thousand yuan per ton.

In the three quarter, cotton prices dropped by 20.9% compared with the previous quarter, cotton yarn decreased by 13.8%, polyester cotton yarn decreased by 9.7%, cotton cloth decreased by 6.9%, polyester cotton cloth decreased by 7.4%, compared with the same period last year, 6.7%, 2.1%, 7.5%, 8.1% and 15.7% respectively, or a marked decline, indicating that the market has returned to normal price level, which is a great positive factor for the middle and lower reaches of the enterprise. While the price of raw materials is stabilized, the prices of the products still remain at the present level, thereby increasing the profit margins of enterprises and helping enterprises restore their confidence in the market.

(two) high cost and structural shortage of labour deserve attention.

Since last year, the price of raw materials has gone up and down, and the cost of all kinds of elements and social responsibilities have been increasing. China has obviously entered a period of high cost. Although wage growth has been above 20% in recent years, recruitment is still difficult, especially for young workers aged 20 to 30. The problem of labor shortage has affected the normal production and operation of enterprises in some areas. {page_break}

(three) the social and economic and political situation in Europe and the United States is turbulent, and the market prospect is complicated and confusing.

Since the world's three largest Rating firm unanimously lowered Greece's sovereign rating in December 2009, the euro debt crisis has intensified, and has gradually spread to Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy, hitting Germany and France, the two European economic giants. The main reason for such debt is that the high welfare system and the lack of competitiveness. European countries are in the stage of aging. This demographic structure has greatly reduced the state's solvency, and it is difficult to rely on the debt burden of future generations to repay the debts of contemporary people. At the same time, some scholars believe that the lack of exit mechanism is an important reason for the plight of the eurozone. It can be seen that the negative effects of irrational factors in the economic structure of countries after the formation of the euro area surpass its positive role in optimizing the economic structure of various countries.

In recent years, the US Treasury bond has gone all the way. By the end of 2010, it had exceeded the scale of 14 trillion US dollars, and increased the risk of economic operation, which indicated that the expansion of financial and monetary policies in the future would gradually shrink.

On the other hand, the employment situation has deteriorated. Since April this year, the unemployment rate has been over 9%, the consumption capacity of domestic residents has weakened, and the gap between the rich and the poor has increased. This has led to massive protests and demonstrations against capital greed "occupy Wall Street", which has spread to the world, expressing strong dissatisfaction with the public's financial order and unfair distribution of income.

At present, the economic and political situation in developed countries such as Europe and the United States is so turbulent that the economic recovery has slowed down. In order to control unemployment rate and ease social conflicts, many governments reduce imports and increase output, giving preferential policies to returned investment enterprises.

These measures have increased trade frictions between China and Europe, and the trend of Global trade protectionism has been on the rise. This situation will definitely adversely affect the export of Chinese products.

To this end, domestic enterprises should speed up the upgrading of products and technologies, innovate channels and brand building, increase the added value of products and occupy two domestic and foreign markets.