Six Big Brokerages Argued That The 2012 A Share Market &Nbsp, The Shanghai Stock Index Saw 3200 Points Higher.

At the end of each year, the annual investment strategy of major brokerages is on the stage. With the European debt crisis, domestic economic growth or decline, real estate regulation and other factors interwoven, next year's economic environment is bound to be complex and changeable, which makes the prediction of the market become more difficult.

According to the investment strategy report of A shares issued by several brokerages in 2012, the major brokerages will be

Related stock movements
The market's judgement is unanimously consistent. It is believed that the first quarter will be the low point of the market, and the two quarter is expected to rebound upward. The judgement of the interval of the stock index is concentrated between 2000 points -3200.

Market style switching in the two quarter of next year

Between Shanghai stock index and 2000-3200 points

CICC recently released the A share investment strategy report, according to its judgement, the first quarter of the first quarter of next year may be adjusted again because of the European debt problem again. In the second half of the first quarter, with the further decline of CPI, the room for further easing of domestic monetary policy is opened, and the market is expected to continue to rebound upward trend.

Guotai Junan believes that the first quarter of 2012 is the low point of the A share market. When the GDP growth in the first quarter saw the bottom of this short cycle adjustment, with the relatively low M2 growth and overall profit growth, the maverick market structure is expected to form a real trend after that. Guotai Junan estimates that the supply of liquidity from next year will be better than this year, but the probability of a big jump is not high.

Deng Eryong, a securities strategist at the Yangtze River, recently said in the 2012 Investment Strategy Symposium of Changjiang Securities, the market will rebound in 2012 and maintain 10%-15% growth throughout the year, and the most important point of time will be in the two quarter of next year.

Ping An Securities chief strategist Wang Ren believes that next year, the A share market will show the trend of first down and back up again. The game path of valuation environment improvement and performance risk release determines the rhythm of stock market. It is expected that the market will be stronger in the first quarter, and the market in the second half of this year may become dull again.

For the next year's index running range, Shen Wan believes that the core fluctuation interval of Shanghai Composite Index in 2012 is 2200 - 3000 points. At present, the valuation of A shares is 11.4 times. In 2012, the A stock valuation center is expected to go up to 12 times. The 2012 profit growth rate of -15% corresponds to 2193 points, and the 2012 profit growth rate of 15% corresponds to 2967 points.

Guotai Junan expects the first quarter of 2012 to be the lowest point in the A share market, and the maverick structure is expected to form a real trend after that. The annual index runs at 2300 -3000.

CICC believes that the overall funding environment in 2012 is better than this year. It is expected that A shares will be up to 2900 near the end of the first half of 2012.

According to Pingan securities's prediction, next year the market will be "inverted U interpretation, structural dominance". The Shanghai Composite Index's core operating interval is 2300 points -3000 points, and the game of valuation improvement and performance risk decides that the unilateral market is hard to reproduce. It is expected that the bottom will be bottomed out from the end of the year to the beginning of the year. Hopefully, the market will be stronger after the first quarter of next year, and the market will probably become dull again in the second half of the year. Although exponential space is limited, structural opportunities that meet policy adjustment and economic spanformation are of concern.

State gold Securities said that under the premise of soft landing, it is expected that next year's A share earnings will grow moderately by 10.8%~15.3%. It is estimated that the core fluctuation interval of Shanghai Composite Index will be 2100 to 3200 next year. The 2100 point corresponds to 10% performance growth and 9 times PE, 3200 points corresponding to 15% growth and 13 times PE.

Electricity and service sectors

Generally favored

In terms of industry allocation, Shen Wan believes that the economic worries in the first quarter of 2012 will end the honeymoon market. At this time, investment should be preserved. In terms of industry allocation, we should pay close attention to the industries that the economy can still reverse cyclically: power equipment (especially spanmission and spanformation equipment and nuclear power), pharmaceuticals and consumer investment equipment. When the policy becomes more loose, we should grasp the opportunity of the cycle and growth resonance, and then suggest that the real estate, heavy truck, construction machinery, chemical industry and related growth stocks should be allocated.

CICC is optimistic about the service sector. It is expected that the industrial policy of 2012 will only shift to the modern service industry. CICC said that in 2012, when the overall profit growth rate of the market was relatively poor, the cyclical stocks were low in valuation but not in profit growth. Only modern service industries have certain advantages for sectors with relatively low profit growth and valuation sensitivity. The modern service industry that benefits may include cultural media, software, environmental protection, logistics and spanportation, medical services, business circulation and so on.

Guotai Junan will divide the industry configuration in 2012 into two dimensions: early cycle and part of the beneficiary industry under the spanformation of people's livelihood. It is optimistic about real estate, securities, chemical, media, medicine and emerging industries.

Ping An Securities recommends that next year avoid the upstream and central cyclical stocks, focusing on the blue chips such as financial services, food and beverage, power equipment, etc., and grasp the investment themes of the four emerging industries, namely, energy saving and environmental protection equipment, nuclear power construction recovery, new chemical materials, TMT soft business (software, soft services, soft consumption).

State securities recommended that investors should plan ahead of schedule in the first quarter of next year, and suggested that the two quarter may be a critical period of phased handover. If real estate and automobile sales are strong, the cyclical stocks will rise, and the attraction of real estate, automobiles and machinery will increase. If the economic downturn and economic systemic risks will blow the bubble, then the attraction of Finance and real estate will be enhanced.