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Deposit Reserve Ratio Or Continued Downward Trend

2011/12/10 9:14:00 34

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Reserve Requirement Ratio Continues To Decline

November, national residents

Consumer price

The total level rose 4.2% over the same period.

It has been 14 months low since October 2010.

Among them, cities rose 4.2%, rural areas rose 4.3%, food prices rose 8.8%, non food prices rose 2.2%, consumer goods prices rose 5%, and services prices rose 2.4%.

The national consumer price level decreased by 0.2%.

Among them, the city decreased by 0.2%, the rural area decreased by 0.2%, the food price dropped by 0.8%, the non food price rose by 0.1%, the consumer goods price dropped 0.2%, and the service item price dropped 0.3%.

In 1-11 months, the national consumer price level increased by 5.5% over the same period last year.

In November, the price of industrial production in the country rose by 2.7% over the same period.

Chain ratio

Down 0.7%.

The industry expects that with the moderate decline of GDP and CPI, the price inflection point will soon appear, and the "pre fine adjustment" window will also open, and the economic growth will slow down.

Macro policy

Fine-tuning is faced with a more complicated internal and external environment. The decision-making level will face the problem of how to use economic leverage to grasp the macro policy orientation.

Li Daxiao, director of the British Securities Research Institute, said that the statistics bureau announced that CPI increased by 4.2% in November, a new low in the year, not only a relatively large drop in the same period, but also a drop in the ring ratio.

Market.

Chen Zhongping, an analyst with first pioneering securities, said that the CPI data fell more than market expectations, and the market's concerns about the high pressure policy will be eased.

When CPI is below 4%, a new round of policy easing will be seen.

The decline of the external market will bring some unfavorable factors to the A share market.

Overall, the gloomy atmosphere of the market will be difficult to change without major stimulus. We can focus on 2300 important support positions.

Value investors should not be too nervous in this position, and some growth stocks have fallen to valuation depressions.

We can actively focus on blue chip and growth small cap stocks.

Investment

Opportunity.

Sun Wei Fang, general manager of the new era securities research and development center, said that the CPI growth rate in November was larger than that of market expectations, mainly due to a marked decline in food prices and other reasons.

Due to the weakening of the tail factor and the approaching of the Spring Festival, the CPI growth rate will be narrowed in the coming months.

There is no obvious change in policy, and the reserve requirement ratio should be lowered in the first quarter of next year.

Many experts believe that the deposit reserve ratio will continue to decline in the future.

Shen Jianguang, chief economist of Mizuho Securities in Greater China, said in a media interview that "credit lines will continue to increase substantially in December.

The reserve requirement rate is expected to continue to decline in the next few months. The first half of next year will be downgraded once a month. "