Dispel Doubts About Why The Keynote Of Macroeconomic Policy Remains Unchanged Next Year, &Nbsp; There Are Three Reasons.

The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting yesterday to analyze and study the economic work next year.

Hu Jintao, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, presided over the meeting.

The conference stressed that next year we should continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy.

Maintain economic policy continuity

The conference stressed that next year is an important year for the implementation of the 12th Five-Year plan. It is necessary to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, to maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies, to enhance the pertinence, flexibility and foresight of regulation and control. We should continue to deal with the three relations of maintaining stable and rapid economic development, readjust the economic structure and manage inflation expectations, accelerate the pformation of economic development mode and economic structure, expand domestic demand, focus on strengthening independent innovation and energy conservation and emission reduction, deepen reform and opening up, strive to protect and improve people's livelihood, maintain stable and rapid economic development, stabilize the general price level and maintain social harmony and stability.

Macro control and timely fine adjustment

The meeting pointed out that we should strengthen and improve macroeconomic regulation and control more accurately, accurately grasp the intensity, rhythm and key points of regulation and control, and make timely adjustment and adjustment in light of the changes in the situation, so as to solve the outstanding contradictions in economic operation and improve the quality and efficiency of development.

Efforts should be made to expand domestic demand, especially consumer demand, improve policies to promote consumption, and strive to improve residents' consumption ability and increase the income of middle and low income earners.

We should further consolidate the agricultural foundation, improve the policy of "strengthening agriculture and benefiting farmers and rich peasants", and promote stable production and yield increase in agriculture.

Efforts should be made to keep the general price level basically stable, enhance market regulation and control capabilities, do a good job in linking up the production and marketing of important commodities, and effectively reduce the cost of circulation.

Promote reasonable regression of housing prices

We must adhere to the policy of real estate regulation and control, promote the rational regression of housing prices, and promote the healthy development of the real estate market.

We should vigorously promote industrial restructuring and regional coordinated development, actively nurture and develop strategic emerging industries, promote the upgrading and upgrading of traditional industries, and increase support for the development of old revolutionary base areas, ethnic minority areas, border areas and poverty-stricken areas.

We should conscientiously implement the comprehensive work plan for energy saving and emission reduction in 12th Five-Year.

We must promote the steady development of foreign economy, promote the upgrading of export structure, actively expand imports, and guide foreign investment to high-end manufacturing, energy saving and environmental protection.

We need to push ahead with the reform of key areas and key links, deepen the reform of the prices of finance, taxation, finance and resource products, and improve the system of promoting private investment.

We should strengthen the social construction with a focus on improving people's livelihood, speed up the reform and development of education, adhere to the strategy of giving priority to employment, improve the social security system, deepen the reform of the medical and health system, push forward the construction of affordable housing projects, and innovate social management and services.

- Prediction

"House price"

The property market will be a colder winter next year.

Zhang Dawei, director of the three level market of Zhongyuan Real estate, analyzed that the keynote of the central government to strengthen macro-control policies has not changed. "The rapid rise of last year's suppression and the reasonable return of housing prices" indicate that the purpose of regulation has changed, and some unreasonable regional housing prices have been reduced to the main purpose of the policy.

Zhang Dawei said that because of the shrinking risk of the real economy, some developers and local governments had hoped that the central government would relax the regulation of the property market and boost the economic growth. But next year, they would probably regain their knowledge of the market. The phenomenon of a marked reduction in housing prices would become more widespread.

He said that in the next few months, the central bank may have repeatedly lowered the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions, and the deposit rate of major financial institutions will drop to 19% or 19.5%. Thus, the market will get some liquidity, and some of the funds will surely enter the property market. However, some parts of the real estate sector are not expected to be much, which will not play a great role in relieving the capital chain of real estate enterprises.

At present, the gap of Housing enterprises' funds is huge. Even if some funds alleviate the pressure of Housing enterprises, it is only a time to delay the price reduction, and the market turning point can still be basically established.

"This meeting proposes that we must adhere to the policy of real estate regulation and control, promote the rational regression of housing prices, and promote the healthy development of the real estate market.

This reflects the firm determination of the central government, which means that this round of real estate regulation and control policies must achieve the expected and obvious results.

Wang Jinbin, vice president of School of economics, Renmin University of China, said.

Price

CPI may drop to 3%-3.5%

Lu Zhiming, a researcher at Jin Jin research center of the Bank of communications, said that the price will continue downward in the end of this year and the beginning of next year. The CPI will probably fall below 4% in December and 5.4% in the whole year. In 2012, CPI will probably drop to 3%-3.5% in December.

Du Zhengzheng, a macroeconomic analyst at the national securities research center, said that CPI is now in a downward channel, but there is still possibility of a rebound.

At present, the decline of CPI is mainly driven by the decrease in food prices, and the relationship between food prices and weather is very close. The current favorable factors may not last until next year.

Meanwhile, Europe's further easing of liquidity and the further rise in commodity prices are potential risks for CPI to rebound next year.

"Finance"

Next year deposit rate or multiple downgrades

Haitong international expects to reduce the reserve requirement for 5-6 times next year, and there may be no more than 3 interest reduction actions to solve the difficult economic problems.

Du Zhengzheng expects to cut the deposit reserve rate 3-4 times next year, and there is great uncertainty about whether or not it will cut interest rates.

Guo Tianyong pointed out that there is no need to raise interest rates at present.

China's current reserve requirement is on the high side, and it can be adjusted 2-3 times next year to 20% below.

According to Liang Zhaoji, a senior economist at DBS bank in Greater China, according to the current central monetary policy orientation, there will be no reduction in interest rates next year, but there will be many downturns in the deposit reserve. It is expected to cut two times to 20% by the middle of next year.

The latest report released by the Bank of communications Financial Research Center shows that considering the easing of price pressure at the end of this year and the beginning of next year, the possibility of rapid and sharp fall is smaller, the enthusiasm of local investment may decline, the fourth quarter GDP growth rate will continue to fall, and the deterioration of the international market environment will be unfavorable to China's exports. Monetary policy may continue to maintain a stable overall tone, prudent balance, forward-looking grasp, targeted measures and moderate relaxation.

- dispel doubts

Why does the keynote of macroeconomic policy remain unchanged?

Reason 1

Conducive to stable operation of the economy

Du Zhengzheng, a macro analyst at the national securities research center, said that the connotation of "robust monetary policy" is relatively wide, and there is a relatively large uncertainty in economic growth and price trend next year, and the space for adjustment is relatively large.

Premature easing or tightening monetary policy is not appropriate. Monetary policy is more flexible and forward-looking.

The overall relaxation of monetary policy is more risky, while prudent monetary policy is conducive to the smooth operation of the economy.

Reason 2

Policy needs to maintain continuity

Guo Tianyong, director of the China Banking Research Center at Central University of Finance and Economics, said that the result of monetary easing is usually the accumulation of large amounts of capital in the areas of fixed asset investment and real estate, not only burying inflation and asset bubbles, but also distorting the economic structure.

He believed that the tolerance for economic slowdown should be appropriately raised.

When the speed of economic growth drops, it will help to adjust the structure and promote reforms.

Guo Tianyong also pointed out that our policy needs to maintain continuity, and in some areas that need key support, such as small and medium-sized enterprises and strategic emerging industries, we can guide the tilt of capital and put capital into the areas most needed.

Reason 3

Fiscal policy to help structural adjustment

Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Ministry of macroeconomic development of the State Council Development Research Center, believes that the positive fiscal policy is used to solve the endogenous driving force of economic development and promote structural adjustment.

Zhu Jianfang, chief macroeconomic analyst at CITIC Securities, said that the so-called positive fiscal policy does not necessarily have to build a large amount of land. In fact, tax adjustment for different income groups can give substantial economic help to some enterprises which lack capital and reduce their fees.

"Specifically, the state will adopt more fiscal policies to regulate the macro economy, and more specific fiscal policies may be arranged for adjustment, and the policy itself will be more positive."

Huang Xunhui, an international economic and strategist at Haitong, said there are two main points in the active fiscal policy. One is expenditure related to people's livelihood, affordable housing and educational culture. On the other hand, it is an investment that has fallen too fast this year.