The Global Economy Is Cloudy.

Several economists dare to categorically assert that there will not be another global recession in 2012.

The mainstream view is that

The eurozone crisis has deteriorated further, and has now swept Italy and Spain, and has come to France.

In other developed countries

Policymakers are worried.

Christine Lagarde, President of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), warned in September that the world economy has entered a "dangerous stage" in a number of times, in September.

By December, she said, those threats are becoming reality.

"The outlook for the global economy will be even worse, and in some ways it will be much worse than we had expected."

Lagarde told reporters in Brazil this month.

The more pessimistic mood has been infected with the OECD, especially in the advanced economies.

Pier Carlo Padoan, chief economist of the OECD, said: "we are worried that policymakers will not see the urgency of things and refuse to take decisive actions to deal with them.

Risks facing the global economy. "

Private sector economists also share the same view.

Investment bank Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast.

Jan Hatzius, chief economist of the US company, said that in many developed economies, tax increases and debt repayment efforts of households and enterprises suppressed economic growth.

"Under the dual role, the economy may continue to maintain low growth in the next two years."

Eswar Prasad, Brookings Institution's Wahl Eswar, is more pessimistic.

"In early 2009, it is hard to see a glimmer of hope.

The same is true now.

The difference is that the 2008 crisis caused huge debt burden, so the current policy is more constrained. "

However, when the forecasters are anxious, the whole world is in deep water.

Germany's October employment index has set the highest record since the unification of Germany and Germany. This fully demonstrates that Germany's prosperity has nothing to do with the suffering of the peripheral countries in the euro area and between the two two.

Although economists have lowered their forecasts, they generally expect the global economic growth rate to be slightly higher than 3% in 2012, only one percentage point lower than that in 2011.

The vast majority of global economic growth will come from emerging markets.

In the core of the crisis, most of the economies in Europe, both in the euro zone and in the euro area, are on the brink of recession.

It was hoped that a "Rocket Launcher" would prevent the crisis from spreading to Italy and Spain. After the hope was shattered, in many parts of Europe, governments, families and enterprises are facing high interest rates despite the fact that the cost of official borrowing is once again at a low level.

Few people expect the euro area to recover quickly. Most forecasts predict that the euro zone economy will shrink in early 2012. As for the peripheral countries of the single currency area, such as the UK, the economic growth will be almost stagnant.

The most worrying thing is that the recession will exacerbate the pressure on sovereign debt and bank financing markets (which have not been solved so far), leading to a vicious downward spiral similar to that of 2008 and possibly causing the collapse of the euro.

Given that money supply is declining at the fastest pace since early 2009, Neville Hill, Credit Suisse of the financial services group, said: "it should be a warning signal for institutions such as the European Central Bank and the Bundesbank, which are highly regarded from monetary indicators," Neville Neville, a financial services group, said.

Most observers expect the euro to survive, but not because policymakers have solved the problem.

In the world's other highly developed economic region, most economists expect that the US economy will have a moderate recovery on the occasion of election year.

As the US unemployment rate continues to decline, the growth rate is higher than that of Europe because of higher consumer spending.

But as the election season approaches, next year is not necessarily a calm year.

William Bit (Willem Buiter), chief economist at CITI, argued that, even with a moderate increase, "we do not expect it to be strong to a significant reduction in unemployment in 2012-13 years".

Julian Callow, Barclays Capital, said that as long as Europe continues to grow weak and the most important thing for the future of the United States, Congress will extend the payroll tax cut policy that will expire at the end of 2011. Julian

In the face of another disappointing year in the developed world, the global economic engine has shifted increasingly decisively to large emerging economies.

Gerard Lyons, an emerging market bank, Standard Chartered Bank, said that Western fundamentals were weak and confidence was hit by Gerrard's Chartered.

"By contrast, in the emerging market, the fundamentals are strong, with almost complete policy reserves, and confidence is likely to be more tested."

But even these emerging economies are not without problems.

According to data from Nomura, Japan's investment bank, China contributed 40% of the world's economic growth in 2011.

Paul Sheard, chief economist of the company, said: "no wonder we are so worried about the risk of a hard landing in China." Paul

China feels the slowdown in other parts of the world.

The Chinese government is beginning to worry about their ability to maintain growth.

At the very least, inflation is slowing down, says Qu Hongbin of HSBC (HSBC), which expands the scope for implementing stimulus policies.

He said: "the main macroeconomic risk in China lies in the rapid shift from inflation to deflation and the need for more radical easing in the coming year."

Such policies of the Chinese government successfully increased infrastructure spending, investment in state-owned enterprises and housing construction in 2009, and are now likely to play a role again, although such capital expenditures will not help the global economy to achieve a more long-term goal of rebalancing.

Other parts of the emerging world continue to grow, but the growth rate is even lower.

Eastern Europe, including Turkey, is particularly vulnerable to the euro zone crisis.

As the commodity boom cooled down, the Latin American economy slowed down rapidly, and despite the marked improvement in Africa's economic performance, the region was still vulnerable to the global economic slowdown.

The world is still full of risks.

There is still a long way to go for the developed economies to recover from the crisis of 2008-09. There is also uncertainty in the extent to which the emerging world can achieve sustained growth.

After the strong recovery in 2010, the situation this year is disappointing.