Fundamentals Continue To Deteriorate The Chemical Fiber Sector Recently A Shares "Stop" King.

Since April of this year, the chemical market has entered a downward path, and chemical stocks have been falling all the way.

Now, the industry agrees that the price of chemical products has fallen further, but after the overall correction of the plate valuation, individual stocks are still coming up sharply in the near future.

Analysts believe that the recent decline in stocks is mainly to make up, the previous chemical sector.

Restructuring fails to meet expectations

Due to the expected restructuring, some of the stocks in the chemical sector remained unmoved when the plate fell, and even went against the trend.

However, once the restructuring is expected to fail, the fall channel will then be opened.

*ST Chang 91 degrees, once rumored by Ganzhou's rare earth backdoor, showed that the larger the shareholder was, the more the stock price rose.

In September 14, 2011, Chang nine group held 6 million shares of the company's stock holdings through the block trading system of the Shanghai stock exchange. After the reduction, Chang nine group held 91 million 620 thousand shares of the company, accounting for 37.966% of the total share capital.

Since then, Chang nine has continued to reduce its share holdings.

According to the November 15th announcement, Chang nine group in October 20, 2011 and November 11th through the Shanghai stock exchange block trading system respectively reduced the company's shares 1 million 500 thousand shares, 10 million shares, totaling 11 million 500 thousand shares, accounting for 4.765% of the total share capital.

After the reduction, the shareholding ratio of Chang nine group changed to 25.68%.

Chang nine group's reduction, *ST Chang nine restructuring expectations are more intense, stock prices once rose to 15.18 yuan.

However, the latest news shows that the Ganzhou rare earth backdoor expectations have been shattered, and *ST Chang nine's share price has also opened a downward path.

From December 2nd to December 20th, the company's share price had 11 consecutive limits.

According to the December 2nd announcement, Jiangxi state control pferred the 85.4% stake of Jiangxi Chang nine Chemical Group Co., Ltd., *ST Chang nine direct holding company, to the Ganzhou industrial investment company, while Ganzhou industrial and commercial investment company has pferred the 15.08% stake of the Ganzhou rare earth mining company limited and the Ganzhou Rare Earth Development Holding Co., Ltd. 25% of the shares, and completed the registration of industrial and commercial changes.

Ganzhou industrial investment no longer holds rare earth shares.

In the Clarification Announcement of *ST Chang nine in December 13th, Ganzhou Industrial Investment Group Co., Ltd. said its acquisition of Chang nine group holding power is under way, and the reorganization of listed companies has not begun yet.

Analysts believe that even if the restructuring of *ST Chang nine continues to push forward, the Ganzhou rare earth backdoor is expected to have failed. On the one hand, there is not much room for injection into other assets. On the other hand, the SFC has increased the requirements for backdoor listing, improved the delisting system, and curbed the poor companies' speculation and other factors, which has also led to a decline in the value of shell resources, and the valuation level of ST is generally falling.

Fundamentals continue to deteriorate

Some other companies in the chemical sector recently suffered a sharp decline in share prices, which is due to deterioration in fundamentals, such as Rongsheng petrochemical and Halliday.

Rongsheng Petrochemical's latest stock price is less than 18 yuan, 1 months ago it was nearly 25 yuan; Halliday's latest stock price was less than 9 yuan, and more than 12 yuan a month ago.

Since April this year, the price of chemical products has fallen into a downward trend, and the trend of large scale decline has not changed yet.

According to the monitoring, there were 31 stable prices last week, accounting for 45.6% of the monitored varieties, and 21 products fell in price, accounting for 30.9% of the monitored varieties.

The decline in product prices has a negative impact on the profitability of the industry directly.

Liang Jianmin, chief research officer for securities research, said that in the third quarter of 2011, the oil and chemical listed companies achieved a net profit of 68 billion 500 million yuan, excluding PetroChina and Sinopec, with a net profit of 11 billion 300 million yuan, down 19% from the same period last year.

The performance of most of the sub sectors decreased, for example, coatings (mainly titanium dioxide) dropped by 60%, fluorine chemicals decreased by 59%, chlor alkali decreased by 44%.

The situation is expected to be even worse in the fourth quarter.

Take the PTA industry as an example, domestic enterprises have mastered the technology of mass production, and the capacity of new production is always very large. Rongsheng petrochemical and its associated company Hengyi Petrochemical have expanded the capacity of PTA to 5 million 650 thousand tons in just a few years, exceeding the capacity of the whole country in 2004, and are still expanding on a large scale, and the capacity will exceed 10 million tons in the next three years.

The release of a large number of new capacity has led to a rapid decline in the PTA industry. The PTA futures market showed that the price in February 2011 had risen to 12417 yuan / ton, but in November it fell to 7736 yuan / ton.

Wang Zairong, chief investment adviser of COFCO futures, believes that in the one or two quarter of 2012, the price of PTA will be further reduced to 7000-7500 yuan / ton.

PTA downstream of the polyester industry is also a tough day.

Statistics show that, due to the textile industry in winter, after the national day, from upstream PTA to downstream polyester, the polyester industry chain showed a downward trend.

The main business income of the main industry of polyester industrial yarn and polyester chip in the third quarter decreased by 5%, and the main business profit decreased by 10%.

In the downturn, the actual controller of Halliday reduced.

In November 29, 2011, the company's controlling shareholder and actual controller Gao Li Min bought 6000000 shares of the company's tradable shares through the Shenzhen stock exchange securities trading system, accounting for 1.34% of the total shares of the company.

It takes time to reverse the performance.

At present, whether from the analysis of product price or valuation level, the chemical sector is not suitable to continue to overlook empty.

However, this does not mean that market reversal will come at once.

Founder Securities analyst Zhang Zhenghua said that the overall price earnings ratio of the oil and chemical sector is 14.09 times that of A shares is 13.08 times, the P / E ratio has been very low, and there is little room for further adjustment.

The market is not optimistic about the downward pressure on the performance trend, and the chemical industry is facing the suppression of factors such as slowing down of demand growth, rising raw material costs, and lack of price.

From next year's situation, the growth rate of oil and chemical industry is expected to be lower than that of 2011.

Zhao Jungui, vice president of China Petroleum and chemical industry, said that in 2012, the oil and chemical industry will continue to maintain steady growth, but the growth rate has slowed down compared with 2011.

It is estimated that the total output value of the whole industry will reach 13 trillion yuan in 2012, an increase of 18% over the previous year, and the total annual profit will be about 940 billion yuan, an increase of 16%.

Feng Shiliang, director of the Information Department of the Chinese Chemical Industry Association, said: "because of the rising cost of capital, tight supply of coal and electricity and other factors, the increasing dependence on resources, the low utilization of resources and the lack of high-end petrochemical products will have an adverse impact on the operation of the industry. The growth rate of China's oil and chemical industry will probably slow down next year."

Liang Jianmin said that the current economic cycle is different from that in 2008. The price of chemical products has dropped sharply, but because the fall is not as fierce as the previous one, the enterprises did not cut production as quickly as they did last time.

Over the past two years, new capacity has been released, and the industry is expected to enter the digestion cycle of capacity and inventory.

"The adjustment period of the current cycle will be longer than the previous one, and the process of stock taking is expected to continue to the middle of 2012.

The recovery time of some cyclical industries in the chemical industry will appear in the second half of 2012. Some industries that take the lead in reducing production will take the lead in recovery. For example, recently, spandex enterprises have announced that the production line will be shut down for 3 months. "

Liang Jianmin said.