Price Is Not Strong, J Price Further Increase, Import Cotton Smile To Welcome The Market.

The price difference of cotton prices at home and abroad has increased, and imported cotton has become more and more popular in China.

According to the Ministry of Commerce, China's 2011/12 year (September) or needs Imported 800 thousand tons of cotton are replenishing stocks. One of the main reasons why there is no large-scale purchase is the high yield of cotton in China this year.

Not long ago, the United States Department of agriculture also released the weekly export records of cotton, which showed that the United States was the largest in mid November. cotton The buying countries have become China, surpassing Pakistan, Mexico and Vietnam. Meanwhile, the US Department of Agriculture announced that on November 2011 11~17, the net contract volume of the US Pima cotton export was 400 tons. Buyer For Turkey and Japan. In 2011/12, the net contract volume of Pima cotton export was 6 thousand tons, and the main buyer was China.

Since 2003, China's procurement of foreign cotton has been on the rise. Over the past 3 years, it has maintained a level of over 200 thousand tons, and imports have remained stable.

However, the stable import situation will be further broken, and China's dependence on the international cotton market will be strengthened. The rising cost of cotton planting in China will make domestic cotton lose its advantage in price.

Xie Jun, general manager of the cotton operation Department of Chuang century gold and silver Technology Co., Ltd., said that the price of domestic cotton and the difference between cotton and cotton will be further increased, while the price of imported cotton is too attractive. According to the annual cotton calculation, the import volume of this year will be greatly increased.

From the perspective of cost accounting, cotton planting in China shows an upward trend. Lin Guofa, an analyst with Breck agricultural consulting company, said that according to the current cost of cotton planting, only one item of flowers was picked up, and the labor cost per mu of cotton reached 500~700 yuan / ton. With the links of seedling raising, spanplanting, spraying and so on, the cost of planting cotton per mu is between 1000~1200 yuan, taking into account the cost of agricultural materials such as land rent, seed fertilizer, pesticide and so on, and the cost of planting cotton per mu is 1600~2000 yuan.

In China, there is a corresponding protection mechanism for cotton prices, but this does not enhance the enthusiasm of cotton farmers. On the contrary, rising costs are turning them into grain cultivation. In the future, the planting area of cotton will continue to decrease.

Xie Jun said that through research in Shandong, Hebei and other places, cotton farmers believe that the price is too low and there is basically no profit, so the cotton area will decrease next year.

Lin Guofa said: "the state stands in the strategic perspective of grain self-sufficiency. Agricultural subsidies are biased towards grain crops. The income of grain crops is stable, while cotton prices fluctuate greatly, and the cost of planting income is not as good as that of other grain crops. With the shortage of labor, the trend of cotton production in China shows a downward trend.

In the long run, low productivity, high energy consumption and low quality of products will result in the closure of most small businesses, thereby weakening the demand for cotton. At present, the export volume of China's textile products has been reduced, and the order of garment enterprises has decreased significantly during the Canton Fair this year.

Xie Jun believes that domestic cotton prices are high and labor costs are high. This is the fundamental factor that restricts the development of textile industry. There is still a long way to go for industrial upgrading. In the future, a large number of textile enterprises will go bankrupt. "Internationally, domestic textile mills will not be competitive in a short period of time, and the quantity of textile cotton will be greatly reduced."

The increase in supply gap will make imports inevitable. Lin Guofa said that cotton prices were too high in recent two years to suppress cotton demand to some extent, but cotton demand per year was also close to 10 million tons. Sharp increase in cotton demand was in sharp contrast to the decline in domestic cotton production. The domestic cotton supply gap increased, and a large quantity of cotton needed to import. Cotton imports showed an upward trend. Considering China's cotton planting costs plus land resources factors, China's cotton industry is still not competitive internationally, and the increase in cotton imports will be a major trend in China's cotton textile industry.

If prices are not strong, imports increase and enterprises fail, the enthusiasm of cotton growers will be reduced, and the regional differences of cotton planting will become increasingly obvious. Intervention by administrative means alone will not fundamentally improve China's cotton planting area and stabilize domestic cotton supply and demand balance. Xie Jun said that if the mainland area is reduced, the change in Xinjiang will not be too great. China's cotton planting will only rely on intensive land management in the future, so as to reduce the cost and make it competitive.

From the perspective of industrial safety, we must safeguard the livelihood of cotton growers after the price rises and plummeted by increasing the livelihood guarantee of cotton growers. Otherwise, the cotton market may be faced with the same embarrassment as the soybean market.