Commodity Bull Bear Speculation In 2012

If cotton is the top bull market in 2010, crude oil and gold will be the "lucky two men" in this year's commodities.

In 2011, global commodities showed a dramatic trend: confidence was full in the first half of the year, and all the way up, while in the second half of the year, it swooped down.

US cotton rose nearly 140% last year, down nearly 40% this year. Lun copper recorded a nearly 80% increase last year, and this year it dropped by 20%.

It is gratifying to note that gold and crude oil in the weak market show the true colors of heroes, and still record a certain increase throughout the year.

As the new year is coming, what commodities will be changed in 2012, and what kind of commodities will be flagging?

The most cattle commodity conjecture: precious metals and agricultural products

Looking back at 2011, the best trend

According to the above ideas, next year, the macro level will continue to take the three aspects of debt crisis, economic recession and various countries' rescue policies.

Under the influence of macro factors, looking forward to 2012, precious metals and agricultural products are

"Precious metals such as gold and silver will become the most promising breed next year. Gold and silver price adjustment is expected to be completed in the first quarter of next year, and then will rise."

Shao Tao, a research manager of Shi Fu financial products, told reporters.

Chen Dong, a futures analyst at Baocheng, also believes that the best commodities in 2012 will be gold.

Next year, the debt crisis in Europe and the United States will continue and cannot be solved completely. Gold will continue to be favored by the market as a hedge asset.

The main reason for the recent setbacks in gold prices is the US dollar rebound and the demand for technical correction after rising too fast.

Next year, the US dollar's momentum of continued rebound is not abundant. The huge debt pressure of the United States will always suppress the US dollar from the bull market.

In addition, if countries want to stimulate economic recovery, the resistance of the reform system is bigger, and the possibility of loosening the currency is higher. Under the dual factors of higher liquidity expectations and increased risk of debt crisis, gold is expected to rise again.

In addition to precious metals, the industry said, considering that the financial attributes of agricultural products are weak and affected by weather, global population growth and planting area reduction, next year's agricultural products will show a trend of rising and falling.

Li Zhoulei, a medium-term analyst in Shanghai, believes that agricultural products may be

Soybeans and cotton are better in agricultural products.

Xu Yu, an analyst at Nanxian futures, said that the most likely breed in 2012 might be soybeans.

In the current year, under the circumstances of domestic and foreign production reduction, soybeans still fell sharply, and soybeans fell to the lowest level near the reserve price. Farmers' enthusiasm for planting was further hit. It is expected that domestic production will be further reduced next year.

Yongan futures analyst Zheng Ruojin is optimistic about the trend of cotton in the coming year.

He believes that after the ups and downs, cotton supply and demand in the future will be fundamentally changed.

Next year, the sowing area of cotton will be reduced, and there will probably be a tight supply situation in the future.

In addition, the cost of labor has also directly increased the cost of cotton.

Therefore, it is estimated that the trend of cotton prices in 2012 may be stronger than other domestic commodities.

Most bear commodity conjecture: chemicals, metals and soft goods

Taking into account the extent of global economic recovery and its fundamentals, experts believe that chemical products, metals and soft goods will be difficult to change in 2012, and will maintain a wide range of shocks.

Overcapacity of PTA or "bear head".

Li Zhoulei said, "individual is still not optimistic about chemical products, because in accordance with the chemical industry cycle, next year and 2013 are the low level of the chemical industry.

Taking domestic plastics and PTA as an example, the impact of capacity expansion will take another one to two years to digest, so there is no basis for cattle in the short term. "

Xu Yu also said that the most bear variety next year could be PTA.

In 2012, the capacity of PTA will expand to 30 million tons, an increase of 50% compared with 2011, an increase of 100% over the 2010 quarter, and the expansion of production capacity is too severe. This will doomed that PTA will be easy to fall and difficult to rise.

In addition to energy chemicals, metals are also "white eyed" objects.

Zhang Junling, an analyst at Dongxing futures, said that the least favored is rebar.

Even if there is no problem in the domestic economy, the slowdown in infrastructure investment and real estate investment in the late period is a major trend.

Moreover, after 2013, the capacity of the three major mines will be released, which makes iron ore prices difficult to strengthen, and the final result is likely to be a downward shock from the historical highs of steel prices.

In addition, soft commodities such as sugar can also become a bear variety.

Zheng Ruojin said that the price of sugar remained strong this year when other domestic commodities fell sharply, mainly due to the fact that