Shoe Companies: How To Export Next Year?

For China's exports next year, there are three main concerns in the industry: first, the rapid growth of the US residents' consumption on the two cornerstones of credit economy and wealth effect over the years is likely to decelerate obviously. Because China's exports to the US are mainly consumer goods, the US consumption slowdown will be unfavorable to China's exports. Two, the policy effect of controlling excessive export growth and adjusting the foreign trade structure in 2007 was clearly demonstrated in 2008. Three, the trade protectionism in the world is rising again, and the trade frictions against China are increasing.

In 2007, it was a year of hardship and hardship for "made in China".

Faced with a series of challenges such as domestic export tax rebate and processing trade policy adjustment, RMB appreciation, land labor force and other factors of production increase, as well as a series of challenges such as the revival of foreign trade protectionism, the United States subordinated debt, or the impact on international market demand, many economic personages have made the warning that "the growth rate of foreign trade export will slow down next year".

As one of the "three carriages" to keep pace with investment and domestic demand, how will the slowdown of foreign trade export affect the macro-economy next year?

Zhang Yansheng, director of the Foreign Economic Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, believes that the slowdown in foreign trade exports is inevitable next year, but the rate of reduction will not be too great, so the impact on the macroeconomic will not be too great.

At the same time, with the implementation of a series of policies, such as stimulating domestic demand, for example, in rural areas of Sichuan, Henan and Hebei, subsidies for farmers to purchase household appliances will gradually enhance the pulling effect of domestic demand on economic growth, and will also effectively digest the huge domestic production capacity that originally relied on international market demand.

The export will slow down, but it will not be too fast. The Chinese version of "one year away from China" written by Sara, a reporter who reports on international trade, is coming soon.

The Sara family described in the book is determined to try not to buy Chinese products in a year from 2005. The stories that happened during the year tell readers that today's Americans can not only get away from cheap Chinese made products but also hide away from WAL-MART products.

The experience of the Sara family also confirms the fact that "made in China" is still loved by consumers all over the world after a series of disturbances in 2007.

From this point of view, although frequent trade frictions may affect China's exports in the short term, it can not fundamentally affect the competitiveness of "made in China" in the international market.

Considering the various factors such as the global consumer market and the direction of domestic macro policy next year, it is expected that although the growth rate of exports will inevitably slow down next year, the magnitude will not be too great.

Although the shadow of "made in China" came out of the recall incident in 2007, it encountered a series of challenges such as domestic intensive export policy adjustment and international trade frictions represented by recall events, but "made in China" did not reveal a faint fear.

Statistics from customs showed that in the 1-11 months of this year, China's exports amounted to $1 trillion and 103 billion 610 million, and its growth was still 26.1%.

The toy industry, which took the lead in the recall, also dropped sharply to 5.4% after its sharp decline in exports in September. It returned to 27.6% in October, indicating that the recall has limited impact on toy exports.

According to Sing Tao Daily, the toy storm made in China seems to have passed, and the Christmas products on American toy distributors are still playing the leading role of Chinese toys.

Although large retailers such as Toys RUs have many toys produced in the US or Canada on the shelves, consumers do not care about the origin of toys.

Recently, a few days ago, the shelves were empty, and the shelves of chain toys Toys' RUs' were full of colors, most of which still had the word "made in China".

As Bo Xilai, former Minister of Commerce, said, "in a sense," made in China "is also" made in the world ", which is the result of the development of the world's manufacturing industry and international division of labor. The negation of" made in China "is negating the creativity, standards and quality of many enterprises in the world.

The three factors affect the export growth next year. The export growth rate in 1-11 months slowed down 1.4 percentage points in the first 11 months of last year, a 0.4 percentage point slower than the first 10 months.

The "made in China", which has survived the crisis of confidence, will further extend the trend of slight slowdown in export growth this year, or will there be a larger decline?

There are three main concerns in the industry's exports next year: first, the uncertainty of the US economy is increasing, and the subprime mortgage crisis has resulted in the lending of American financial institutions that may affect consumer credit funds, and the weakening of the wealth effect of real estate and the reduction of consumer confidence. The rapid growth of US residents' consumption on the two cornerstones of credit economy and wealth effect over the years is likely to decelerate obviously. Because China's exports to the United States are mainly consumer goods, the slowdown in the US consumption will be harmful to China's exports. Two, the policy effect of controlling excessive export growth and adjusting the foreign trade structure in 2007 was further clearly manifested in 2008. The pace of RMB appreciation has accelerated and the cost of production factors has gradually increased. Three, the international trade protectionism is rising again and trade frictions against China are increasing. For our country

Although the pressure is difficult to form growth resistance, the industry will give their own views on the three factors that will affect the export next year.

First, will the US subprime debt cause a slowdown in the US economic growth, thereby reducing the US consumer's demand for "made in China"?

Fang Gang, member of the central bank's monetary policy committee, pointed out that the fall in the US economic growth has limited impact on China's foreign trade export, because the dependence on the US market is decreasing.

At present, China's foreign trade in the Asia Pacific region has accounted for more than 40% of China's total foreign trade volume. Even if the US market has declined, as long as the Asia Pacific market is stable, there will be no big problem in foreign trade exports.

At the same time, the renminbi is depreciating against the euro.

According to customs statistics, the European Union, the United States and Japan as China's three largest trading partners, the total volume of bilateral trade increased by 27.3%, 15.7% and 14% respectively in the first half of November. The growth rate of bilateral trade between China and Europe has greatly exceeded that of bilateral trade, indicating that China's export growth to Europe has replaced the US market in a certain sense.

Secondly, the policy of restraining export growth too fast and the factors of rising costs will cause a large number of enterprises to go bankrupt and bankrupt.

Journalists have long tracked information from traditional export industries such as textiles, clothing, footwear, furniture and so on to show that in recent years, due to a series of factors such as RMB appreciation, shortage of land labor resources and rising cost of raw materials, coupled with the frequent occurrence of international trade friction, there are indeed a lot of small and medium enterprises failing to resist risks.

But we should also see that it is this series of baptism that makes the era of low price competition no longer return, and the export environment is getting better and better. This has also become the main reason why the industry has maintained relatively high export growth in recent years.

Finally, although the international trade protectionist forces are on the rise, they believe that the "made in China" after the accession to the WTO, especially this year's countless trade frictions, has a more peaceful mentality and a strong foundation in dealing with them.

The biggest change of next year is: export growth may decline and surplus growth rate may turn the corner. This may bring about a change in industry growth. It shows that the era of universal prosperity of the external demand industry is going to be over, and the domestic demand industry is rising correspondingly. In the next two years, we may be faced with such a pformation process.

Xu Gang, managing director of CITIC Securities, said recently that he was looking ahead to the economic trend next year.

The past of the era of universal prosperity indicates that China's exports still maintain a relatively high growth rate but the rate of decline is slow.

This effect is precisely what the country aims at regulating the export industry, which is conducive to the overall macro-economic grasp of the opportunity for pformation and upgrading.

The "Matthew effect" behind the export prosperity figures, according to customs statistics, China's exports of US $1 trillion and 103 billion 610 million in 1-11, still increased by 26.1%.

Seeing this data, people can not help asking why, in 2007, after the intensive changes in domestic export policies, the frequent occurrence of foreign trade frictions and the sharp rise in costs, the export data still displayed a "boom" scene.

In fact, behind a thriving export growth phenomenon, after many challenges, thousands of small and medium-sized enterprises have been eliminated, and the market has further concentrated on the scale of stronger enterprises.

Last year, when the domestic footwear industry encountered the EU anti-dumping and the recall of the toy industry this year, the changes within the industry coincide with this conclusion.

Take the footwear industry as an example, after last year's EU anti-dumping, the export volume of leather shoes in the EU dropped slightly by 8% in the 1-10 month of this year, but the total export volume increased by 7.2% over the same period last year, which is equivalent to an increase of 16.5% in the export unit price.

At the same time, in the first three quarters of this year, there were about 1000 shoe factories and supporting enterprises in Guangdong in the first quarter of this year. They were closed down or closed up by various courts or courts, or moved elsewhere.

The Asia Shoe Association, which released the data, said that the data were counted by the association through several field surveys in Guangdong. In the recent two or three months, more than 400 small and medium-sized factories in Guangdong have been closed.

The policy of boosting domestic demand has successively introduced, which is expected to achieve "export diversion". Xu Jianfeng, vice president of China manufacturing network, has shown that the phenomenon of "survival of the fittest" in the export industry is not necessarily a bad thing.

Tens of thousands of small and medium-sized enterprises with no competitive strength have gone bankrupt, and export unit prices have risen sharply. The two groups of antidumping comparisons have shown that low prices have gradually faded away from the "made in China" pool of international competition, replacing the added value, brand, technology and quality, which is conducive to the macroeconomic pformation and upgrading.

At the same time, if the domestic demand in the "three carriages" can be effectively lifted, even if the export trade is severely affected by the severe international market, the worry that the export slowdown will affect the economic development will be much smaller.

Recently, a series of policies and trends in the country indicate that domestic demand is being boosted.

On the 22 day, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce jointly announced that the work of "home appliances to the countryside" aimed at expanding rural consumption in China will take the lead in the three provinces of Shandong, Henan and Sichuan.

Farmers in three provinces will be able to buy limited price household appliances specially produced for the rural market, while at the same time, they can apply for subsidies from the financial departments to the "home appliances to the countryside". On the 23 day, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress began to consider the draft amendment to the personal income tax law, and proposed to raise the tax threshold from the current monthly 1600 yuan to 2000 yuan per month.

It can be expected that although the pace may be slow, domestic demand is expected to become the most powerful "horse drawn carriage" to replace exports and investment in the future.