Three Good Factors Will Support A Shares Until The Spring Festival.

Most analysts said in an interview with reporters that the rally can be maintained until the Spring Festival, and the Shanghai stock index can reach about 2400.

There are more optimistic researchers believe that the market can rebound to around 2600 points, and more points of view, A shares in 2012 can repeat the bull market in 2009.

Optimistic about the market or repeat three years ago

At the national financial work conference held recently, Premier Wen Jiabao delivered an important speech on the development of financial reform. He said, "we need to deepen the marketization reform of the IPO system, and improve the system of issuing, delisting and dividends, so as to boost the confidence of the stock market and define the future direction of the development of the stock market."

A brokerage researcher told reporters, "in the market once again hit a new low, Premier Wen's position to the capital market has injected a very strong booster, which is undoubtedly a heavy profit for the A share market."

The researcher pointed out that this is the first time Wen has made clear that he wants to boost confidence in the stock market, so the capital market will surely be greatly encouraged.

Wang Lin, director of the fund of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said recently that it would promote preferential policies such as tax relief and deferral for institutional investors, encourage long-term investment, and appropriately speed up the pace of approving qualified foreign institutional investors (QFII).

Wang Lin said that efforts should be made to optimize the external environment of institutional investors, study products and trading methods that meet the needs of institutional investors, and adopt more flexible institutional arrangements for institutional investors in terms of market access, business mode, rate system, evaluation and motivation.

In addition, Wang Lin also said that the SFC actively encourages institutional investors such as social security funds, enterprise annuities and insurance companies to increase investment in capital market, and actively promote long-term capital funds such as basic endowment insurance funds and housing provident fund.

Actively encourage the charity fund (micro-blog), culture fund, education fund and other low investment fund products.

Many investors interviewed by reporters believe that yesterday's market decline was mainly caused by some short-term profit escapes and did not prevent the market from continuing to rebound.

It is expected that this rally will last until at least around the Spring Festival. The first wave should be able to reach a height of around 2350, but we should also be vigilant against the negative aspects of the macroeconomic and overseas markets.

Valuations bottomed out, Sinopec (600028) and a large number of listed companies such as large shareholders holdings, insurance funds entering...

This series of phenomena is familiar.

Compared with the end of 2008, there are still some lack of substantive policies to support the stock market's upward trend.

During the financial crisis of 2008, the Ministry of Finance and economic affairs decided to adjust the stamp duty policy of securities pactions, from bilateral collection to unilateral levy.

After that, the central government also introduced a series of economic stimulus plans, including 4 trillion yuan investment plan, eight industry support policies and 10 measures to expand domestic demand.

Under the introduction of multiple rescue programs, A shares bottomed out at the end of 10 in 2008 and showed a one-year long bull market.

Researchers believe that it is far from enough to rely solely on the government to save the market by mouth.

In the absence of specific policy support, the A share market is hard to reverse.

So, for now, the short-term rebound is expected to last for some time, but there will not be a good market in 2009.

People's livelihood securities analyst Zhang Zhuo's view is very optimistic, he believes that the market will not change the medium term market, the stock market in 2012 is expected to replicate the story of 2009.

Why is optimism? Zhang pointed out that China's capital market started in pessimism in 2012, similar to that in 2008. It is also an excessive worry that investors are pessimistic about the capital market before and after the end of the year.

"In the first quarter of 2012, the growth rate of GDP and the performance of listed companies will grow to a new low, and then the trend will increase every quarter. The relaxation rate of monetary policy will exceed the market expectations.

All this will make the 2012 capital market repeat the story of 2009. "

Zhang Zhuo said.

Optimistic Valuation: the bottom of the Shanghai stock index market rate

Although the Shanghai Composite Index low 2132.63 points before the rally was significantly higher than the low point of 1664.93 in 2008, but due to the increase in earnings per share over the past 3 years, the valuation level of the A share listed companies has been at the lowest level in history.

Zhang Zhuo, an analyst at Minsheng securities, pointed out that in 2008, the lowest value of the Shanghai stock index A stock index was 12.4 times, and that of the Shanghai composite index was 12.3 times lower than that of the Shanghai Composite Index. The most undervalued component of the SME board is 15.18 times.

In the fall since last November, the top three indices were only 10.56, 10.54 and 24.3 times the lowest.

Except for small and medium sized boards, valuations of constituent stocks of Shanghai A shares and Shanghai composite index have reached a record low level.

Based on the closing price in January 6th, the Shanghai Composite Index's static market rate is only 1.7 times, and the Shanghai Shenzhen 300 static market rate is only 1.7 times, and the valuation is at the bottom of history.

Ding Jian, a researcher at CIC securities, said, "if the price index of the MSCI global index is used as a benchmark to measure the average valuation level of the global capital market, the Shanghai Composite Index's price earnings ratio has fallen below the benchmark at the end of 2011, the first time in more than five years.

The Shanghai Composite Index currently has a P / E ratio of only 10.6 times, relative to the MSCI global index.

"From the industry dynamic price earnings ratio in 2012, the industries with lower dynamic price earnings ratio include banks, construction machinery, building materials, aviation, construction and engineering sectors. If we look at the 2012 PEG indicators, the lower PEG industries are banks, construction machinery, real estate, construction and engineering, steel and insurance."

Sun Jianbo, chief strategist of galaxy securities, reminds everyone: "under the precondition of valuation advantage, we need to pay more attention to the importance of performance growth."

"According to the changes in earnings forecasts of industry analysts from 1 to December 2011, there are still better expectations for annual reports, including food, beverages, textiles and clothing, financial services and non-ferrous metals.

But looking back at the valuation of these four industries, we can find that only the valuation of financial services is close to the historical low probability area.

In contrast, the valuation of the other three industries is lower than the historical average, but still higher than most other industries.

From the perspective of cross comparison between valuation and annual performance, the financial services sector deserves great attention.

Sun Jianbo stressed that from the recent performance of small and medium-sized market capitalization, the overvaluation of China's growth stock valuation is very serious, and how well the actual growth of performance is good is doubtful.

We believe that there will be a very significant valuation differentiation phenomenon in the small and medium capitalization stocks in the future. Most of the so-called valuation centers of growth stocks will face a significant decline.

Under such a big background, we need to pay more attention to fundamental research on the actual growth of its performance when configuring small and medium capitalization stocks.

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Holdings: major shareholders of listed companies

According to relevant statistics, from September 1, 2008 to 2009 8, a total of 259 listed companies increased their holdings. The number of A holdings increased to 1 billion 605 million 740 thousand shares, with an average monthly increase of 133 million 810 thousand shares.

Since last November, a total of 164 major shareholders of listed companies have increased their holdings of shares of their own companies. The total number of holdings has been 660 million 190 thousand shares, with a monthly increase of 264 million 80 thousand shares.

From the perspective of the intensity and frequency of the increase, the major shareholders of the listed company support the strength of their stock companies beyond the financial crisis.

That is to say, the major shareholders of listed companies believe that the attractiveness of stock prices is higher than that of the financial crisis.

Xu Guangfu, an analyst at Xiangcai securities, pointed out that Huijin launched a repurchase of four major lines in October 10, 2011, triggering a 200 point market.

In the background of boosting market confidence and promoting the coordination of the one or two level market, the 3 "prefix" companies announced the increase.

According to the historical analogy, the Shanghai Composite Index has entered the long-term investment area below 2200. "

Zhang Zhuo, an analyst at Minsheng securities, said that "industrial capital or large shareholder holdings is often an important indicator of market concern and judgment of the bottom of the stock market. We found that the phenomenon of industrial capital holdings is more obvious when the stock market is near the bottom of the stock market, through the study of the phenomenon of industrial capital holdings in A shares and foreign countries."

Looking back at the past market, the two tier market holdings of industrial capital or important shareholders have obvious effect on the index of stock market bottom finding, but the time point is slightly biased.

In 2005, the Shanghai Composite Index in June created the lowest point in the year, and the stock market lingered at the bottom for two months. In August, the surge of important shareholder's holdings was delayed, and it continued in 9 and October.

Since the two tier market holdings of important shareholders have a process, and our statistical time chooses the cut-off time of the increase, the actual starting time is earlier, and the error is about 10 days.

But even so, the surge of important shareholders in 2005 is still behind the bottom of the stock market. In the late July, A shares began to rebound sharply.

This is also true in 2008.

The important shareholders of listed companies began to increase their stock holdings in 8 and September, but the A share market really bottomed out at the end of October 2008 and the beginning of 2009. A shares began to set off a big reversal market.

According to the general view of the industry, industrial capital is in the front line of business operation, and it is clear to the industry and enterprises. Therefore, the judgment of stock price may be higher than the average market level.

The majority shareholders know the situation of listed companies most, and they increase their holdings by holding shares, which means the recognition of the company's current investment value.

In particular, some of the listed companies of central enterprises do not usually buy their stocks easily, and they always have to sell when they are forced to do so.

CICC gold (600489), Sinopec, China Unicom (600050), China Shenhua (601088) several major central enterprises have announced in recent days that their controlling shareholders have increased their holdings and announced plans to increase their holdings.

"Under normal circumstances, there are few scenes of national team support, except for 2008.

This is the second time in the capital market, the phenomenon of large scale collective holdings of large shareholders of Listed Companies in central enterprises.

In an interview with a commercial newspaper reporter, some people in the organization said that the central enterprises were

Zhang Zhuo said that the holding of large shareholders shows that the bottom of the stock market is basically formed.

"Since December 2011, along with the sharp decline in the stock market, the significant shareholder and senior executives in the two tier market have obviously accelerated their holdings. The market value of December increased by 3 times compared with November, reaching 5 billion yuan."

In Zhang Zhuo's view, the acceleration of the holdings of important shareholders of listed companies means that the current stock price has been significantly lower than the actual value from the company's internal perspective, and the attractiveness of the stock market has gradually increased under the undervalued value.

At the same time, large shareholders entering the market also means that the bottom of A shares is gradually formed.

It is expected that the market will rebound significantly in the first quarter of this year than in the fourth quarter of last year.

(last December, listed companies' holdings of major shareholders can be shown in Table 2).

Funds: credit at the end of the year is far ahead of expectations.

In addition to the above factors, Liu Mingbin, an analyst at Everbright Securities, believes that the sustainability of the rebound depends on several factors: first, whether the economy will exceed the expected downlink in the coming period? Second, will the liquidity be compatible with the future?

Liu Mingbin pointed out that "after a quarter of pmission, the power of policy underpinning is gradually emerging.

We can find evidence from the PMI and leading indicators. The expected downlink is a small probability event.

As for the outside world, we need not worry about the extreme risks caused by the collapse of the European debt crisis. "

"In view of the consistent logic

Ping An Securities chief strategist Wang Ren also said that the economic forecast is the basis for the bottom, liquidity improvement is the catalyst, which is optimistic about the first quarter of A shares rebound.

"Rebound time window will be around the Spring Festival, the nature of the market is weak recovery rebound."

Wang Ren believes that the time window for market rebound has gradually opened.

"The pre adjustment has fully reflected the pessimistic expectations of the deterioration of the European debt crisis, the decline in performance and the tight funds before the holiday, while ignoring the two optimistic signals of the US economic recovery and the inflection point of post holiday liquidity.

The expected mismatch is providing potential functions for the market to switch from "down to the top".

"Before and after the Spring Festival, there will be several positive signals in the market and provide the impetus for market rebound."

Wang Ren pointed out that at the macro level, the growth of M1 and the acceleration of credit acceleration are expected to form a resonance. At the micro level, the improvement of enterprise inventory pressure and cash flow will stabilize performance expectations.

Liu Mingbin pointed out that, in fact, there is internal liquidity in the banking system represented by the interbank market, and there is a liquidity between the banks and the real economy in terms of loan prices.

The former index is borrowing or repo rate, and the latter is weighted loan interest rate or discount rate.

The latter may be more direct and close to the stock market. "

Further refinement, if the whole corporate sector liquidity is segmented, it can be divided into large and medium-sized state-owned enterprises and private-owned SMEs.

At the beginning of 2010, after the introduction of the EVA assessment method, the enthusiasm of state-owned enterprises' capital flowing into the stock market dropped sharply.

Therefore, under the present conditions, the discount rate of bills, which represents the liquidity of SMEs, has become a key indicator.

Liu Mingbin said, "looking back on the bear market in the past two years, we find that every time the market continues to rebound, we can see that the discount rate of the bill continues downward."

He pointed out that the A share market is a giant with a circulation of nearly 20 trillion yuan, and the rally in the bear market can be seen everywhere. The relationship between rise and fall is like "yes" and "no".

Falling too much, there may be an endogenous rebound at any time.

However, the rebound from emergence to sustainable development means the need to shift from stock capital to incremental funding.

People's livelihood securities analyst Zhang Zhuo pointed out: "in December last year, new loans 640 billion 500 million yuan, the whole year 7 trillion and 470 billion yuan, far exceeding the market expectations, mainly due to the increase of financial strength.

We expect the new loans in the last 3 days of December last year to exceed 100 billion yuan, and the intensity of capital investment is stronger than that in November.

Credit and currency far exceeded expectations to boost market confidence. "

"Although monetary policy did not change its tone in 2012, the pition from tight to decisive" showed a gradual change towards gentler.

Zhang Zhuo said that the open market operation, through the stop issuing central bank tickets and timely reverse repurchase flexibility to deal with market liquidity tensions, reflecting the current stage of the central bank's liquidity attitude to "breadth"; window guidance, the credit scale in the first quarter increased slightly over the previous year.

Through adjusting the macroeconomic parameters and the free parameters of commercial banks, the central bank has shown loose and tight overall: the adjustment of macro-economic parameters has been rising and falling, and overall has tended to be moderate; the adjustment of bank's own parameters emphasizes the supervision of capital adequacy ratio.

Analysis of the extension of the rebound also need to focus on financing and policy support.

On the other hand, analysts believe that whether the market can accept the financing of listed companies is also a key factor affecting the rebound.

According to Everbright Securities forecast, the first quarter of 2012, the A share market financing scale probably not more than 129 billion 100 million yuan.

This scale is the lowest level since the third quarter of 2009, compared with the four quarter of 2011.

A researcher said in an interview with reporters, "financing and refinancing are also a very important factor affecting the performance of the capital market.

If the pace of IPO listing in the primary market is not slowing down, or if there are big Mac IPO issuing and listing, it will definitely take away part of the two tier market funds and will have some constraints on the rebound of the A share market.

The refinancing of the two tier market is also true.

If the primary market and the two tier market are slowing down the pace of financing, the market will gradually get better.

In addition, Wang Ren believes that the probability of "big opening up and closing up" is low, when to fine-tuning, and where to focus on the key areas, it will determine market rhythm and allocation direction.

"After the central economic work conference is adjusting the sound monetary policy and the active fiscal policy, the possibility of" big opening and closing "in the 2008 policy has been basically ruled out.

The foothold of the policy analysis lies in two aspects: one is the rhythm of the fine-tuning of the policy, and the two is the direction of the fine-tuning of the policy.

That is to say, when the policy fine-tuning will accelerate and the key areas in which policies will be fine-tuning will be the key elements to determine the pace of market operation and the direction of market allocation.

Wang Ren analyzed.

Haitong Securities Xun Yu root set aside the fundamentals for analysis and analysis.

He said, "we need to see the market in the market".

Tracing back to history, there were three wave bear markets (including this time) in 2001, and more than 5% rebounding occurred in 31 times, with an average increase of 15.4%, with an average duration of 19.6 trading days.

Xun Yugen pointed out that the rebound in January 6th started a cumulative increase of 7.3% to 3 trading days.

From the catalyst point of view, it is somewhat like October 2011, combined with bear market rebound history, 10% of the magnitude does not seem to go too far, so that the Shanghai Composite Index reached 2345 points, there are 60 points, or 2.6% increase, adding little significance.

"The problem is, if there is more than 15% of the increase, that is, the Shanghai Composite Index will reach more than 2450 points, so there will be another 165 points, that is, more than 7.3%.

Xun Yugen said that looking back at the past history, more than 15% of the rebound needed relatively strong support, such as the direct stimulation of the stock market, the loosening of the monetary policy for the growth of the stock market, and the cumulative decline in the stock market.

Whether liquidity can continue to improve at present is very important. The lowering of reserve requirement ratio and the increase of new credit by 8 trillion -8.5 trillion yuan are important tracking indicators.