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    32 Companies Took The Lead In Announcing The Bonus &Nbsp; "Rabbit Tail Red Packets" Came Again

    2012/1/15 10:28:00 22



     

    The 2011 Annual Report has been unveiled by *ST golden fruit.

    Almost every spring, high growth and high

    A bonus

    Companies will be united to trigger a wave or large or small annual quotes.

    As of January 13th (Friday), at least 32 companies issued a "dividend" notice, the first high delivery company Dongfang Guoxin (300166, closing price 61.92 yuan) raised 10 to 10 Faction 2 yuan (including tax) dividends.

    Reserve plan


    However, judging from the stock price trend of the 32 companies, investors did not get more favours because they responded positively to the new dividend policy.

    On the one hand, some companies are refinancing, and offering dividends is often interpreted by the market as a substitute.

    financing

    Escort; on the other hand, it also has something to do with the tradition of A share market favours stock dividends.


    How will the annual report be pferred to the market? This issue will be a special topic for dividends, hoping to give investors some references.


    Forecast


    The dividends of the 32 companies vary.


    In November last year, the SFC launched the new dividend policy, requiring the listed companies to make a clear dividend and raise the return to shareholders.

    Before and after new year's day this year, many companies are prompting dividends on the exchange website.

    As of January 13th (Friday), at least 32 companies issued relevant announcements.


    From the operating point of view, the 32 companies that publish dividend announcements can be said to be vastly different.

    Beijing Bank (601169, closing price of 9.71 yuan) is a stable financial sector with steady growth.

    Blue-chip share

    There were also South China cars (601766, closing price of 4.47 yuan), which still experienced high growth last year.

    Gao Hong shares (000851, closing price of 6.79 yuan), so that three consecutive years of distribution profits can be negative, and even ST Hai Jian (600515, closing price 4.17 yuan) net assets of only 0.13 yuan, wearing a "ST" hat company.


    Performance is different, and each company has different dividends in the past few years.

    Gaohong shares are unable to make cash dividend distribution for three consecutive years because of the negative profits of the parent company's distribution. The annual cash dividend ratio of Beijing bank is relatively fixed at around 20%, while Guangzhou holding has more than 50% cash dividends for three consecutive years.

    Other smaller companies are on the rise in dividends.

    For example, the pearl net in Cangzhou realized a net profit of 43 million 510 thousand yuan in 2008, a cash dividend of 24 million 650 thousand yuan, a ratio of 56.64%, and a cash dividend ratio of 2009 and 2010 plummeted to 9.66% and 4.33% respectively.


    Judging from the announcements of each company, they also have many different attitudes towards the new dividend policy.

    {page_break}


      

    Finance

    Corporate dividends are subject to regulatory restrictions.


    Over the past two years, financial enterprises, especially banks, have been criticized by the market for their huge refinancing, which has left their attitude towards high dividends.

    Take the Bank of Beijing as an example.

    Since the listing of Beijing bank in 2007, the cumulative dividend in 2008~2010 has reached 3 billion 587 million yuan, with an average dividend payout ratio of 20.12%. In 2010 and 2011, the net profit growth rate of Beijing bank reached 20.75% and 30.72% respectively in the first three quarters.


    But like all banks, Beijing bank performance growth is based on high capital consumption.

    In order to meet the requirements of capital adequacy ratio, the Bank of Beijing last year raised no more than 1 billion 85 million shares of non-public offering, but it has not yet been implemented.

    Therefore, in the announcement, the Bank of Beijing expressed very implicitly: "our bank is in a stage of rapid development, and has a higher demand for capital. We need to strengthen our self capital accumulation and avoid frequent external financing to impact on the capital market. The bank will comprehensively consider its own development characteristics, shareholders' investment return, business development needs for capital accumulation, and the overall dividend situation of banks, and so on. In accordance with statutory procedures, we will further improve the profit distribution policy and make timely announcement."


    Although the dividend policy has not been clearly put forward, the Bank of Beijing seems to have implied implicitly that the company should increase its share of cash dividends significantly, or else it may fall into a vicious circle of "high dividend, high financing and high dividend".


    In the same financial sector, Shanxi investment A (000563, closing price of 9.89 yuan), which belongs to the financial sector, although also has regulatory requirements for net capital, it seems much more generous to distribute dividends to investors, and clearly proposes that cash dividends should be used more frequently: "the company will distribute dividends in the form of cash, stock and cash combined with stock. The company will actively distribute cash dividends in cash based on the company's earnings, compliance with the regulatory requirements of net capital, and the normal operation and long-term development of the company."

    And Shanxi investment A also said that we should improve the pparency of dividend distribution, "make investors have clear expectations for future dividends, and effectively enhance returns to shareholders of the company."


    In 2008~2010, Shanxi investment A made three cash dividends, totaling 46 million 590 thousand yuan, and the annual dividend payout ratio was between 22.94%~38.44%.


     


     

      


     

    Fight dividends or guarantee financing.


    It is worth mentioning that although most of the companies have written the formatting language, some of the companies with higher dividends have hinted that they will continue to pay dividends in the future.


    In 2008~2010, Yi Ya Tong (002183, closing price of 4.44 yuan) was converted into capital stock by capital accumulation every year, with a ratio of 10 to 5. At present, the total share capital of the company has risen to 834 million shares.

    At the same time, Yi Ya Tong also made a large proportion of cash dividends. In three years, the total cash dividend was 177 million yuan, accounting for 49.47% of net profit.


    In the December 30th announcement, Yi Ya Tong said: "under the trend of good development of logistics and supply chain management outsourcing service industry, the company as a leading industry in the industry is in a stage of rapid development. It is expected that the business scale will continue to grow in the future and maintain good profitability.

    Future Ltd will continue to maintain a stable and stable dividend policy and distribute dividends according to a basic fixed dividend payment rate, so that shareholders can fully share the growth income of the company, and the proportion of cash dividends will be determined according to the company's financial position.

    According to the proportion of past dividends, the declaration of Yi Ya Tong seems to imply that the proportion of cash dividends will remain at around 50% in the future.


    Similar to Yi Ya Tong is Zong Shen power (001696, closing price of 5.99 yuan).

    In 2010, Zong Shen's cash dividend was 408 million yuan, while the company's net profit was only 345 million yuan in the same period, and the cash dividend ratio reached 118.47%.

    Zong Shen also announced in the announcement: "at present, the company as a leading industry is in the development stage of strategic upgrading and new business expansion. It is expected that the business scale will continue to grow well in the later stage.

    The company will further study the future dividend distribution policy planning and sustainable stability and other related issues, and clarify the principle that company profit distribution policy should not be changed arbitrarily.


    However, it is worth investors' attention that many companies in the 32 listed companies are conducting financing work.

    Therefore, at that time, the board of directors stressed that dividends might seem to be a suspect for protecting financing and playing the "dividends" and stabilizing the share price.

    If Yi Ya Tong announced in September last year that it intends to raise additional funds to invest in deep distribution of 380 integrated platform expansion projects, due to the poor market environment, the revised version was raised in October, and the raised funds were reduced from 950 million yuan to 630 million yuan.

    Today, the price of the company is only 4 yuan, which is about 30% less than its 6.47 yuan issuance price.

    In addition, Zong Shen power, Shanxi investment bank A, Beijing bank, China Southern car and other early stages have launched a private placement plan, which is awaiting implementation.

    {page_break}


    Analysis


    Performance growth is still the basis of high score red high pfer


    No matter how determined the SFC is to urge listed companies to increase returns to investors, no performance support is needed. Everything is empty talk.

    Although the 32 companies responded positively to the call of the SFC, most share prices were general.

    On the contrary, some companies that reported high growth and huge net assets per share were eye-catching in the rebound after new year's day.


    Wind information statistics show that as of January 13th, a total of 952 companies announced the 2011 earnings forecast.

    Among them, 251 increase, 315 increase, 109 profit, 31 losses, 31 households reported good news, accounting for 74.16%; pre reduction 79, slightly reduced 88, continued loss 20, the first loss of 51, reported bad company total 238, accounting for 238; otherwise, the company is not sure.


    ST Huayuan (600094, closing price of 4.85 yuan), Tieling Metro (000809, closing price of 19.30 yuan), Qinghai gelatin (000606, closing price 5.55 yuan) is currently living in the first half of the list.

    The former two achieved substantial improvement in their performance by completing major asset restructuring.

    ST Huayuan expects net profit of 690 million yuan in 2011, an increase of 43768% over the same period last year. Tieling new town expects net profit of about 630 million ~6.4 billion last year, an increase of 21832% over the same period last year. Qinghai gelatin is a huge investment income from the pfer of subsidiaries, and its performance increased 4952% over the same period last year.


    As these three companies are not sustainable in their performance, other two stocks have been flat in recent years, apart from the cheap ST Huayuan.

    Some companies that have made significant growth in their main businesses and are highly profitable are most popular among investors.


    In December 27, 2011, Mr Tang (300146, closing price of 79.77 yuan) announced that the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in December 27, 2011 was 175 million ~1.93 billion yuan, up by 90%~110% over the same period last year.

    The reason is that "with the continuous improvement of the depth and breadth of the company's sales channels and the further improvement of brand influence, the sales performance of the company's main dietary supplements in 2011 continued to maintain a sustained, healthy and rapid growth momentum, and sales revenue increased substantially compared with the same period last year."

    Since the end of May last year, the company has been on the move all the way, and the trend is completely out of line with the market. When it closed on Friday, it was 70.48% higher than last May 27th's low.

    At the end of the three quarter of last year, the net assets per share were as high as 15.70 yuan, of which 12.50 yuan and 2.05 yuan were the capital per share and the undistributed profit per share.

    After the new year's day, he continued the trend of the slow cow, which rose by 1.03% and 1.36% respectively in two weeks.


    Prediction


    The 2011 Annual Report is still dominated by speculation and high turnover.


    Wei Gang, a researcher at Huatai Securities, released the research report in January 12th as one of the potential stocks to be pferred.

    In this report, Wei Gang explicitly pointed out that stock dividends may still be the main string rule of the 2011 Annual Report quotas: "domestic listed companies tend to prefer stock dividends, and stock dividends in A share market have an important impact on the share price of listed companies. High turnover is often regarded as a good benefit.

    In the first quarter of each year, there is a tendency for the market to pursue the concept of high delivery and pfer of stocks.

    In the past ten years, in addition to the high annual pfer of the annual report in 2010, the stock with high annual pfer has yielded significant excess returns in the first quarter and the two quarter of the year. In the first quarter of 2006, the average excess return to the stock market was 57.85%.


    Wei Gang analyzed that the high delivery usually has the following effects: first, when the company's earnings growth is unchanged, the issuance of stock dividends will help to reduce the absolute price of the stock, give investors a sense of cheap and enhance liquidity, and increase investor interest in investment; the listed companies whose secondary high pfers generally have higher capital reserves and undistributed profits, and the growth rate is also faster, which reflects to a certain extent the good texture and growth of the company; the third high pfer reflects the management's confidence in the company's continuous high growth and hopes to accelerate the expansion of the market value through the expansion of capital stock.

    All of these factors contribute to the increase in the stock price of the high pfer stock after the ex dividend.


    Wei Gang believes that from the time of speculation, the 30 trading days before the announcement of the plan are the best hype period, and the average excess return rate is positive every year, especially since 2006, the average excess return over the past 4 years is over 10%.

    Although the excess earnings of the 5 trading days, the 10 trading days and the 30 trading days after the announcement are positive, they are obviously lower than the pre announcement date.

    After the date of equity registration, the high rate of pfer to stocks is basically cooling down, and the excess return rate is negative as a whole.

    On the whole, the high annual pfer to individual stocks shows the characteristics of "six high and one small", that is, small capital stock, high share price, high earnings per share, high net assets per share, high capital stock per share, undistributed profit per share and high growth.


    After setting up a series of grading standards and scoring, Wei Gang screened 30 stocks that might be sent up in the 2011 Annual Report.

    The top 5 are Bai Li, Neusoft carrier, STANLEY, Tomson and Seven Star Electronics.

    The three quarterly earnings of the 5 companies grew by more than 50% year-on-year and net assets per share were more than 11 yuan.

    Among them, the net assets per 100 Li even amounted to 21.09 yuan.


    On Friday, Dongfang Guoxin, the first stock issuing company with a high level of pre disclosure, ended up on a daily basis.


    According to the Orient Guoxin bulletin, the annual dividend plan of 10 to 10 yuan (including tax) will be implemented in 2011.

    It is surprising that after the resumption of trading on Friday, the Great Eastern letter of the Guoxin was released, and eventually it was firmly sealed down, with a turnover of up to 22.05% throughout the day.


    A private person pointed out that after the end of October last year, the market continued to record low, but orient Guoxin has been out of the two month slow bull market. Since October 24th, the dongguoxin has increased by more than 40%.

    "We do not exclude lucrative funds to lend money for good delivery."


    Wei Gang believes that most of the high turnover expectations are small and medium sized boards and GEM stocks, and the majority of sub shares are high. The valuation of these stocks is relatively high, and the market's expectations for the growth of these stocks are relatively high. "There is no risk of fundamental bright spots and less than expected performance. At the same time, policies such as the gem delisting system may bring risks."


    However, from a historical perspective, these stocks, which are the first ones to disclose high turnover, may still be able to get out of a huge market after a brief decline.

    In January 25th last year, jiangte Motor announced that the 10 turn 8 was sent to 0.35 yuan (including tax).

    But then its share price climbed steadily to nearly 40% in March 9th.


     


     
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