Three Big Conjectures And Coping Strategies In Stock Market This Week

Conjecture 1: the trend of stock index is first suppressed and then Yang?

Implementation probability: 80%

Specific reasons: this week is the last trading week before the Spring Festival holiday, according to the usual market volume will be relatively low, but the pre holiday market has many "lucky money" to send.

According to statistics, in the 12 years since 2000, in the week before the Spring Festival, the stock market index increased by 11 years, accounting for 91.67%.

In view of this, the probability of market rise this week is still relatively large.

Analysts pointed out that, although last Friday, the market again shocks the bottom and many stock market down, and the EU's 9 countries were downgraded and the European debt crisis escalated may have a negative impact on the market atmosphere; however, high-level speech to boost confidence and industrial capital to increase the market to bring the "positive energy" can not be ignored.

Panorama of two city stocks

Liu Guanghuan, research director of the new era securities research and development center, said that in the early two weeks of the Shanghai stock market, the stock market rose by more than 100 points in the first half of last week. The volume of business has been better matched, and the market sentiment has recovered considerably, thus laying the foundation for rebound. Although the market in the second half of the week has been significantly blocked in the 2300 area, the technical callback collation feature is more obvious.

Wu Xuan, a senior analyst at Sun Shun securities, pointed out that if the inflation remains high and the risk of economic downturn is gradually exposed, the stock index will continue to shake up if there is no further positive stimulus.

However, due to the gradual recovery of market confidence, the source of funds for entering the market is expected to gradually expand. If there is monetary policy coordination before the festival, the stock index is still expected to challenge the new rebound height.

Coping strategies: to see more and move less, short-term investors can "sell high and suck down and see what happens."

The medium and long lines can increase the allocation of blue chips with valuation advantages by adjusting the machine.

Conjecture two: new energy vehicle sector sought after?

Implementation probability: 80%

Specific reasons: Weekend domestic media reported that the 49 new energy vehicles exempt from vehicle tax related industry planning or will be introduced.

In this regard, analysts pointed out that new energy vehicles as a key tool for the country to seize important industrial positions in the future, will continue to introduce effective and effective support policies, from a policy point of view, there is always good.

If last November, the Ministry of science and technology and other four ministries and commissions issued the notice on further improving the pilot work of energy saving and new energy vehicle demonstration and promotion, the new energy vehicle sector has experienced a large scale limit. This new energy vehicle will be exempted from the relevant industrial regulations of the vehicle and vessel tax, or the news of the new energy vehicle will stimulate the trend of the new energy vehicle sector.

Analysts pointed out that the state's policy support for new energy vehicles will bring opportunities to the battery industry, the lithium and rare earth resources industry, the charging station industry and the passenger vehicle enterprises upstream of the battery motor.

In the short term, new energy vehicle related industries are expected to get excess returns under the stimulation of policies, and it is foreseeable that sales of hybrid vehicles will soon go to a new level.

Since then, with the continuous expansion of the market scale, new energy vehicle related industries will be the main investment direction in the medium and long term.

It is worth mentioning that in last year's overall environment of automobile production and marketing, new energy vehicles were outstanding.

According to incomplete statistics from China Automobile Association, in 2011, 8368 new energy vehicles and 8159 new energy vehicles were produced by motor vehicle enterprises.

China Automotive Association pointed out: "with the upcoming launch of the new energy vehicle plan, China's new energy vehicle production and sales will increase substantially in the next few years."

Coping strategies: analysts recommend focusing on Jiangsu Cathay Pacific, Chengfei integration, BYD, otxun and other companies.

Conjecture three: overactive stocks continue to be active?

Implementation probability: 80%

Specific reasons: from the performance of individual stocks, overtaking stocks is a recent focus.

In last week's rally, the most prominent performance of the oversold stocks was 5 of the 8 stocks that went against the market last Friday. In addition, the previous week's stocks rose earlier than the previous ones. For example, the Luoping zinc industry, which rose 46.17% last week, has fallen by nearly 60% last year. Last week, it rose by 31.74% in the past six months, which has fallen more than 50% in the past six months.

In this regard, analysts pointed out that the recent decline in stocks showing a strong performance from time to time is a very positive signal, indicating that overdue stocks have become the focus of funds.

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"Want to profit from the recent rebound is money, short term participation in the rebound is a very good choice, after all, when the market oversold rebound, overtaking stocks is the vanguard of the rebound."

Analysts pointed out.

From the market in recent days, a lot of ups and down stocks show the performance of the rally, stocks rebound atmosphere is slowly recovering.

On the one hand, most of the stocks have been in a state of short-term overfall, and there is a power to rebound on technology. On the other hand, the policy is also favorable for the long position.

According to the senior personages in the industry, the recent overperformance stocks that may be shown are mainly reflected in the following characteristics: first, after a large decline, these stocks have strong desire for rebound in technology; two, they are active stocks in the history; three, they are likely to have a short-term rally in technology, and investors can follow this thinking.

Coping strategy: as the overdue stocks can rebound much, often depends on its fundamental changes. Therefore, it is best to choose stocks with relatively low valuation and clear growth performance to configure.

The tail of the rabbit rises and welcomes the Spring Festival.

As the year of the rabbit draws to a close, A shares unexpectedly come to a strong rebound, which is a boost to the market.

Judging from historical experience, the last week before the Spring Festival, the market trade tends to be light, and the market trend is relatively stable. In addition to the individual years during Daniel, the market is generally small.

On the news side, the biggest suspense this week is whether the central bank will lower the reserve requirement rate, while the European debt crisis and the Iran nuclear issue are unlikely to change dramatically in the short term.

Statistics: before the Spring Festival, the trend is generally better.

According to media statistics, in the past 15 years, the stock market rose 14 times a week before the Spring Festival, and the probability of rise was as high as 93.33%.

The market is in a rebound after the fall, the 5 trading days of the whole week, the Shanghai stock market, two suns, and a slight increase of 1.14%. In 1998, the background of Shanghai stock index was only a slight increase of 0.74%. In 1999, the Shanghai stock index was the last part of the sharp slump. When it was only two trading days in the week, the first day fell 1.45%, second days increased 2.28%, and the whole week edged up 0.8%; 2000, the market was in a rapid rise stage after a sharp fall. In the case of four Yang and Yin, the stock index went up 4.77%; in 2001, it was the only time since the spring festival that the stock index had fallen since the Spring Festival. Specifically, in 1997, the last week before the Spring Festival.

From a purely probabilistic perspective, in the last trading week of the coming year of the dragon, the balance of A shares seems to be biased towards many parties.

The biggest suspense: will the deposit rate be lowered before the year?

The latest data released by the central bank on 13 showed that in December last year, China's foreign exchange holdings decreased by 100 billion 300 million yuan compared with November, which is a negative growth for third consecutive months.

Data released on the same day also showed that as of the end of last year, China's foreign exchange reserves amounted to 3 trillion and 181 billion 148 million yuan, a net decrease of US $20 billion 600 million compared with the previous quarter, and the phenomenon of quarterly net decrease in foreign exchange reserves rarely appeared in recent years.

It is generally believed that hot money presents a more obvious outflow in the short term (the investment express) invited hot money research expert Li Youhuan to discuss in detail on Saturday.

With the reduction of foreign exchange pressure, there is no doubt that the reserve requirement rate is still at a historical high.

However, the industry believes that the central bank has recently used the way of issuing central banks to adjust the market's funds. Therefore, whether the central bank will choose to launch before the year of the dragon, there is uncertainty as to the adjustment of deposit rate.

In addition, this week's news, the further fermentation of the European debt issue, whether the US dollar has continued to grow significantly, the latest trend of Iran's nuclear issue and the Middle East's geopolitical mediation is worthy of investors' attention.