European Debt Crisis Escalates &Nbsp; A Shares Affect Geometry

Pool Co, the world's leading credit rating agency, recently announced a reduction in the long-term credit of 9 euro zone countries, including France. Grade How will the news affect A shares? Reporters interviewed a number of stock market experts who thought they were right. A shares Short term effects are limited.

　 Nine sovereign ratings in Europe have been lowered

S & P recently issued a statement announcing the results of the credit assessment for all 16 euro zone countries except Greece. Among them, France and Austria lost the highest 3A rating, downgraded to AA+, and the sovereign credit ratings of Italy, Spain and Portugal were all downgraded by two levels.

S & P said the downgrade was mainly due to the recent policy measures taken by European leaders not enough to deal with systemic pressures within the eurozone. In addition, the agreement reached by the EU summit last month failed to break through enough to solve the euro zone's problems. Finance Difficult problem.

On the same day, S & P also announced that the sovereign credit rating of 7 countries such as Germany remained unchanged. The reason is that the economies of these countries are better and their ability to deal with crises is relatively strong.

　　 Short term impact on A shares may be limited.

But this time China Negotiable securities Market experts are not too pessimistic. Li Daxiao, director of the British Securities Institute, said that the news was released on Friday. The European and American stock markets did not react very strongly, because the market had already anticipated and fell earlier. Last time, the US sovereign credit rating market only responded two days ahead of time. After the news was made public, Dow continued to fall, but it began to rebound in three days. This time, the European stock market is likely to fall for one or two days, not as it did in the last US stock market. The impact of this news on A shares should be smaller than that when the US rating was downgraded in August last year.

Lin Changjiang, a stock index futures strategy analyst at China Futures Brokerage Co., and a specially appointed lecturer in CICC stock index futures, believes that the European debt problem has been reacted in advance by the Eurasian and Asian stock markets. This year is 2 and March. European debt The pressure to repay the peak, especially in Italy and Spain, has already been seen in the market. In fact, China's A shares also have some "immunity" to this problem, which will not be too affected. If A shares continue to fall, it is mainly their own problems, such as the size and pricing system of new shares, the delisting mechanism and so on.

Lin Changjiang said that from the investment point of view, the news may be a test opportunity, if A shares do not fall, indicating that the bottom is relatively solid; if it continues to fall, or even more than the European stock market, it means that the bottom is not strong, and now is not the end.

Ding Yuanheng, a senior securities expert, believes that the global stock market has responded in advance to the intensification of the European debt crisis, but has not responded adequately. The impact on the A share is very large. Before the opening of the market on Monday morning, the performance of the stock market in Japan and South Korea depends on the face of the European stock market. If European stocks fall sharply, A shares will probably fall on Tuesday. In any case, if the Shanghai Composite Index falls between 2000 and 2100, that is a good medium term buying point.

Economist Han Zhiguo believes that this news may have limited short-term impact on China's stock market, but the European debt crisis will not only continue, but will continue to aggravate, and will restrict the A share market's rebound height in the whole 2012. It may even drag A shares below 2000.