Semir Clothing Last Year Opened 700 Children's Clothing Stores &Nbsp; Franchisee Confidence Is Not High.

　　 Casual clothes The industry as a whole is facing the advent of passive inventory cycle: CPI reached 5.4% in 2011, and leisure clothes under inflation background. industry Sales volume is affected, resulting in a backlog of clothing enterprises have increased. A company with a high proportion of direct investment is reflected in its inventory. The listed companies with high participation in the system have relatively low statement inventories, and the inventory is mainly backlog in the franchisees, thus affecting the order meeting next year. The company's terminal franchisees have some inventory in 11 years, making the 12 year order situation slightly lower than the same period, but the 12 year spring order is expected to grow by more than 20%-30%.

The development of stores in the whole year is below expectations: after the listing in 2011, the company plans for the next three years. Children's wear And leisure wear set up 700-800 stores, and then due to the rent rising too fast, the franchisee's confidence is not high and so on, the progress of direct and franchised stores is lower than expected. Children's clothing stores opened slightly better, estimated to be around 700 a year, while casual wear was slightly worse, estimated at around 600.

Sales slowed down in the fourth quarter: since the fourth quarter, the weather has been warmer in the whole country and late in winter. 2011H1, casual wear sales increased 32%, children's clothing increased by 58%, but in the four quarter, the company's casual wear sales growth was slower, which is one of the reasons why franchisees slow down shop. But sales of children's wear are still strong. In 2012, the product style of our company increased by more than 20%, and we insisted on the strategy of stimulating sales growth by the rich category. Therefore, we expect that 12 years casual wear can gradually come out of the adjustment period.

The gross profit margin declined in the fourth quarter, but it could still maintain the level of last year: 2011Q3, the gross profit margin of the company was 36.44%. In the fourth quarter, the discount rate of large competitors and the poor sales of products made the company's winter clothing discount more vigorous. Although the price of the winter clothing retail price rose by 10%, the forecast discount will have some influence on the gross profit margin this quarter. But at the same time, products generally maintain 3.5 fold calculation, maintaining stable gross profit margin throughout the year is the company's consistent strategy.

The cost rate has increased: as the headquarters moved from Wenzhou to Shanghai in 2011, there has been a large increase in personnel resettlement and other related expenses. Meanwhile, the related expenses of the company listing and the marketing expenses of the stores have also increased. Therefore, we estimate that the annual cost rate is more than 3% higher than that in 2010.

Earnings forecast: 11-13 years EPS is expected to be 1.83 yuan, 2.28 yuan, 2.77 yuan, three years CAGR reached 23%.'s leading position in children's wear industry still can not be shaken, casual wear after several years of high growth also needs a period of adjustment, but the long-term growth trend remains unchanged. Therefore, we have long been optimistic about the company, giving "overweight" rating.