10 Events About A Share Market In The Year Of Dragon

Took up the tail of the rabbit in 2012.

Event 1 monetary policy will be structural easing.

Realization

The A share market, which lasted for a long time, finally saw the hope of "enriching blood" in the near future. This week, the central bank carried out reverse repurchase for 4 days in a row, and injected 352 billion yuan into the market, which is equivalent to reducing the power of the reserve requirement ratio.

It is estimated that the monetary policy of the year of the dragon will remain a stable keynote while structural easing will be an important point. The scale of new credit will exceed 8 trillion yuan per year and the annual growth target of M2 will be around 14%.

It is estimated that the deposit reserve rate will be lowered more than 3 times throughout the year, and the interest rate of deposit and loan is expected to be lowered one time.

Comment: high price falls, making room for monetary policy adjustment. The future monetary policy will be "directional loose". Although "directional easing" means that the possibility of direct access to the stock market is limited, the support to the real economy can indirectly predict the A share market. Meanwhile, it can also bring theme investment opportunities for emerging industries and big consumer industries.

Event 2 perfecting the IPO system

Implementation probability: 60%

In view of the serious disconnection between the primary market and the two tier market, the national financial work conference, which was closed recently, pointed out that we should promote the coordinated and healthy development of the one or two level market.

Guo Shuqing, chairman of the securities and Futures Commission, also said that this year, we should improve the price formation mechanism of new shares and reform the stock underwriting method, so that the pricing of new shares will be closely related to the fundamentals of issuers.

Comment: the crux of the A share market is in the trap of money, the continuous expansion pressure has become a sharp sword hanging above the market, and it also gives investors a sense of mistrust on the A share market.

The key to change is to improve the IPO system. Only by establishing a reasonable and sound distribution system, can we jump out of the vicious circle of "getting poorer and poorer, getting poorer and more prosperous", and the A share market can normally play its investment and financing functions.

If this can be achieved this year, it will undoubtedly be the biggest benefit of the A share market.

Event 3 T+0 return to stage

Implementation probability: 50%

Although the industry is relatively controversial and investors have different opinions, in the era of stock index futures, it is only a matter of time before "T+0" returns to the stage.

Insiders pointed out that A shares T+1 and stock index futures T+0 loopholes, only the same way to take T+0, in order to further match the stock index futures market and stock market, and risk can be hedged.

Comment: without increasing the stock of market capital, the "T+0" trading system can effectively improve the liquidity, activity and trading volume of the market, resulting in obvious capital amplification effect.

In the weak market situation, the "T+0" trading system is conducive to reducing the investment risk of investors. On the other hand, it will provide investors with more short-term trading opportunities, help investors improve their profitability and stimulate the weak market pattern to a certain extent.

Event 4 new three board expansion

Realization of probability: 70%

Earlier, there was a concern about the expansion of the new three boards, because the replacement of departmental leaders might affect the pace of expansion. But at the beginning of this year's securities and futures regulatory work conference, Guo Shuqing, chairman of the securities and Futures Commission, declared that "we need to accelerate the establishment of a unified regulatory market for foreign exchange and easy markets". Moreover, when the State Council put forward the policy of further promoting the exchange market and the OTC market as a way to broaden the financing channels for small and micro enterprises, the expansion speed of the new three boards will only accelerate.

Comment: for the financing of small and medium-sized enterprises, the new three boards not only provide a platform for the financing of enterprises directly, but also more importantly, it can drive other financing channels. Once the management level invigorates the new three boards, there will be a large number of hi-tech enterprises to enter the market. This may bring a greater impact on small and medium sized boards and gem, but it has little impact on the A shares, and it can also increase the choice of investors.

Event 5 pfer financing business officially launched

Implementation probability: 80%

With the formal promulgation of the "refinancing approach", the refinancing business has also entered the final phase of the sprint.

"Refinancing" will broaden the margin trading channels to a large extent, increase the underlying securities, and change the market's "no coupon" phenomenon caused by the reluctance of securities dealers to lend securities, thus opening up more room for margin trading.

Comment: after the launch of the refinancing system, the organization can make many choices, and both sides can make profits.

But because of the lack of funds and the lack of professional ability, the vast majority of retail investors still need to make profits by making the difference, making it even harder to make money.

However, this business is good for restraining the excessive speculation of stocks, and is also a good thing for value investors.

Event 6 international plate

Implementation probability: 20%

The launch of the international board has always been a hot topic in the market, and this month, mayor of Shanghai, Shanghai, is speaking at a press conference at the closing of the "two sessions". It said that the launch of the international board is time, but there is no specific timetable. From this point of view, it seems that the possibility of launching the international board is not as strong as expected in the market this year.

Comment: under the background of lack of funds in the current A share market, if the international board is launched, it will continue to divert market funds. This is obviously not a good thing for the weak A share market. Let alone the current "hot money" is flowing out, and it is not the best time for the launch of the international board.

Event 7 delisting companies reproduce A shares

Implementation probability: 50%

Since 2011, management has continued to promote the gem delisting system.

In December 28th, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued the plan to improve the gem delisting system (Draft), which can be formally promulgated after implementation.

At the same time, improving the main board company delisting system will also be put on the agenda. The A share market may be the first delisting company since 2007.

Comments: for a long time, the main board market has implemented the longest 3 year delisting warning system, that is, a year's loss wearing cap, two years' loss of wearing star, three years of loss to suspend the listing, and fourth years of loss still delisting.

In reality, it has become a bad habit to restructure the loss share.

In order to crack down on the concept of restructuring, the SFC has stepped up its audit procedures for restructuring the listed companies.

But a real clean up of the restructuring of the deficit stocks will eventually result in a more clean delisting system.

This long-term good A share market, value investment philosophy is expected to gradually replace speculative speculation.

Event 8 to solve the problem of B share market

Implementation probability: 40%

After the opening of B-share market to domestic residents, it has been in full ten years. At present, the whole market has been marginalized.

Especially after the basic solution of split share structure and the emergence of gem and stock index futures, China's multi-level and relatively standard securities market has begun to take shape. The marginalized B share market is more inconsistent and contrasting under this background.

Comment: in the existing "A+B" company, the B share price is only half of the A share. If the regulators choose the way of A and B share market merger to cancel the B-share market, the valuation difference will lead to the A share capital flows to the B-share market, thus forming a certain pressure on the A shares.

Event 9 strengthening dividends of listed companies

Implementation probability: 70%

Since Guo Shuqing became chairman of the securities and Futures Commission, he has further improved the company's bonus system arrangement. Its core idea is to strengthen the pparency of the dividend decision-making mechanism, requiring the listed companies to make a clear commitment to the dividend policy and fully disclose information at IPO.

It is estimated that in 2012, the management will issue a ticket to the listed companies that are not fully disclosed in the dividend policy, and the reasons for changing the dividend policy are not sufficient.

Comment: dividend is the watershed for distinguishing speculative city or investment market.

Because investment is to share the profits of listed companies, it is to achieve win-win investment and investment, while speculation is the difference between investors. It is a zero sum game between investors.

Investment is risky, but it is controllable compared with zero sum game.

Mandatory dividend is expected to gradually change the current high valuation of the market, so that the A share market has become capital investment, and become the most convenient investment channel for the majority of ordinary shareholders.

Event 10 RMB's steady appreciation

Implementation probability: 90%

In early December of last year, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar continued to hit the limit, which once triggered the speculation that the renminbi weakened.

However, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continued to rise, reaching a historical high of 6.3001.

Judging from the current situation, the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate in the year of the dragon is likely to increase, but the trend of steady appreciation will not change.

Comment: because of the appreciation of RMB in recent years, the A share market has become the target of all kinds of overseas hot money eager to make profits.

According to the speculative characteristics of hot money, the rush of hot money is the most fatal blow to A shares.

If forced China to strengthen the supervision of hot money, it will be a relatively negative impact on the A share market.