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Structural Changes In Spring Festival Consumption

2012/2/5 12:50:00 25

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Regional Changes In Spring Festival Consumption

The golden week of Spring Festival in 2012 has passed.

consumption

The curtain was also falling.

According to the Ministry of Commerce monitoring data, during the Spring Festival (New Year's Eve to the beginning of January six), the sales volume of key retail and catering enterprises in China reached 470 billion yuan, a record high again, an increase of 16.2% over the same period last year.

The consumption of Spring Festival in the Spring Festival has achieved steady and rapid growth, showing structural and regional changes.

Although sales increased by 16.2%, the growth rate of consumption dropped by 2.8 percentage points over the Spring Festival of 2011.

In November 2011, China's consumer confidence index was 97, although it rebounded in December, it is still lower than the low point in the financial crisis, and the overall market demand has dropped.

From the overall situation of the consumer market this Spring Festival, it has not declined to the position of the financial crisis (13.8%).

From the incremental point of view, the sales volume of Spring Festival in 2012 increased by 65 billion 500 million yuan, basically unchanged from 2011, but the high base number this year.

Speed up

Down 2.8 percentage points.

After deducting the price factors, the actual growth rate of social consumption in Spring Festival in 2012 was 11.94% (CPI in December 2011), which is better than the actual growth of the golden week of 2008, and has shown a trend of slower growth for two consecutive years.

The main reason is that the double section and the Spring Festival neighbour have digested some purchasing power in advance, and the CPI downlink has also restrained the growth of total retail sales to a certain extent.

During the Spring Festival, clothing and food consumption performed well, and gold and household appliances differentiated.

On the two day of the new year's Spring Festival and the CPI downlink, sales of clothing were eye-catching, and its sales increased by 18.7% over the same period last year, an increase of 1 percentage points over 2011.

The main reason is that clothing retail prices have risen sharply, and clothing and footwear category prices have risen 3.7% over the previous year, far higher than the 0.1% increase in 2011, thus promoting the overall sales volume of clothing.

Food grew by 16.2% over the same period last year, and the performance remained stable.

Gold and jewellery grew by only 16.4% over the same period last year, down 2.7 percentage points.

As gold and jewellery investment properties weakened compared with 2011, the price increase during the Spring Festival was significantly less than that in 2011, so the sales growth of gold jewelry was significantly weaker.

Before the home appliance products benefited from the three major policies, festivals are often mentioned by the Ministry of Commerce. But this year alone, the growth of household appliances is obviously slower than the overall consumption growth rate.

The main reason is that the Spring Festival is in the neutral period of national consumption subsidy measures, and household appliances sales have been significantly affected in some areas.

During the Spring Festival, consumption in the central and western regions performed better, and the three or four tier cities grew faster.

The total retail sales of social consumption in Guangxi, Shaanxi and Sichuan increased by 24.6%, 22.3% and 21% compared with the same period last year.

Gansu

The growth of Xinjiang and other places has also increased by more than 20%.

According to the statistics of 41 cities, about 50% of the cities grew year by year.

Among them, the performance of first tier cities and municipalities directly under the central government is relatively flat, for example, the growth of Hangzhou and Guangzhou is less than 10%, while the growth of Shanghai and Beijing is less than 16%, and Chongqing and Tianjin are also maintained near 18%.

In sharp contrast, the growth rate of many three or four line cities, such as Luoyang, Shiyan, Neijiang, Ningbo and Qinhuangdao, is over 25%, and sales growth is continuously increasing.

We should pay attention to differentiation within the industry and pay attention to private sector leaders.

At present, the price earnings ratio of commercial retail sector in 2011-2012 years is 18 times and 15 times respectively, basically unchanged from the financial crisis.

But as the industry growth rate inflection point has not yet appeared, the next few months for consumption off-season, the opportunity to start still needs to wait.

Judging from the sub sectors, the department store industry has a strong ability to adjust its sales structure, and the vast majority of the two or three line cities are still promising. The central and Western department stores are facing opportunities for development. The growth of supermarkets and shops is closely related to food prices. The slowdown in CPI will inhibit the sales of supermarkets such as food, beverage and daily products. The enterprises with distinctive characteristics, strong cost control and quick replication can also be concerned.